Putin-Erdogan follow-up meeting is a sign of mutual needs and wants

Russian president Vladimir Putin met his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday at the Black Sea resort of Sochi to bolster co-operation and resolve key differences over Nato and Syria. As this was the second summit since their July 19th Tehran encounter, they clearly felt an urgent need to talk.

Turkey has attempted to mediate a ceasefire and negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv and has brokered agreements to ensure deliveries of Russian and Ukrainian grain to customers in the Middle East, Asia and Africa. For heavily sanctioned Russia, grain sales – worth $11 billion in 2021 – provide essential revenue.

Economic ties

Nato member Ankara has supplied Ukraine with Turkey’s Bayraktar armed drones but has refused to sanction Moscow and has, instead, strengthened economic ties. This week Russia transferred $5 billion (€4.9 billion) to Ankara for the construction of a $20 billion nuclear power plant which employs 20,000 workers, the majority Turks, at a time unemployment is high.

While Moscow has expressed interest in establishing a Bayraktar drone factory in Russia, Ankara has considered asking for Russian technical aid for a Turkish-version of US F-35 fighter planes denied by Washington after Turkey bought Russia’s S-400 anti-missile system rather than US Patriots.

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Turkey depends on Russia for 45 per cent of oil and gas supplies, and Gazprom last month temporarily shut down the Turkstream gas pipeline, allegedly for “maintenance”, but this was seen as an expression of Russian anger over Ankara’s acceptance of Nato membership for Sweden and Finland.

Turkish Kurds

Like Nato, Syria has been the focus of disputes between the two. While Russia has backed the Syrian army against Turkish-supported insurgents and jihadis fighting the Syrian government, Putin and Erdogan have tried to contain the conflict. However, since 2016, Erdogan has carried out three military operations in northern Syria to expel from the borderland Syrian Kurdish militiamen that Turkey claims are allied to Turkish Kurdish secessionists.

Erdogan aims to establish a Kurd-free “safe zone” to host Syrian refugees living in Turkey. When, in May, Erdogan announced a new offensive against the Kurdish-held towns of Manbij and Tel Rifaat, Moscow and Tehran objected. As Russia controls the skies while pro-Iranian militias reinforce Syrian ground troops, they could intervene. Nevertheless, Erdogan was expected to ask for Putin’s tacit acceptance of his plan.

Erdogan, who is standing for re-election in 2023, is desperate for a distraction from domestic woes. While military action might play well with Erdogan’s ultra-nationalist allies, it is unlikely to impress millions of Turks facing 80 per cent inflation and a 25 per cent devaluation of Turkey’s currency this year.