No extra champagne ordered in European Commission as Johnson quits

The news that two of prime minister Boris Johnson’s top ministers had resigned broke during an evening diplomatic gathering of officials, envoys and journalists in Brussels this week.

A mood of chaotic glee spread through the heavily Irish crowd as the news was passed along, and as people checked their Twitter and WhatsApp groups to confirm that Johnson’s reign was truly ending.

“Looks like it’s really it — Sunak’s gone”; “Did you see the statement from David Frost?” politics addicts remarked to one another.

One broke into a triumphant dance for a moment before reining it in after realising that a British diplomat was nodding politely over a glass of wine just one conversation group over.

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Across the city there was the same determination to keep it classy, despite everyone knowing that capitals and institutions across the European Union are delighted to see Johnson gone.

“Has the [European] Commission ordered any extra bottles of champagne this week?” the Daily Mail correspondent asked at the executive’s midday press conference, in an attempt to jerk a more lively line out of its spokespeople than its standard refusal to comment on national politics and a restatement that the commission seeks negotiated solutions on the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol.

The response was delightfully dry. “We have a very limited consumption of alcoholic beverages in the commission,” deadpanned the German spokesman, Johannes Bahrke, amid chuckles. “Any other questions on drinks, food, or any other topics?”

A determination to make only boring statements in relation to Britain has been commission policy for some time. The mantra is “don’t escalate”; the blandly unprovocative Maros Sefcovic embodies the strategy.

This is due to an awareness of how the Johnson administration uses foreign policy to score domestic political points. British tabloid headlines about Emmanuel Macron or Olaf Scholz or any other European figure making a declaration will never be to their benefit.

There’s also the sense that outside Irish circles, where it still matters, British politics and the outworkings of Brexit have lost much of their interest for the broader EU. Passions are exhausted on the matter and most feel there is little more that needs to be said.

Johnson had already established a reputation as someone careless towards relations with allies as foreign minister. As leader, he repeatedly trashed the remaining goodwill towards Britain for short-term domestic political gain. His government openly declared it would break international law with its internal markets bill, and revives the act with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill this year, unpicking the nascent normalisation in relations due to co-operation on the issue of Ukraine.

His own diplomats were repeatedly undercut by unpredictable changes in policy at the top, going out to brief one line one day, only to see it all changed the next, which damaged their credibility as interlocutors.

The unreliability is summed up the Johnson administration’s drive to retract an agreement it asked the EU for and won an election on the back of just 2½ years ago.

It got to the point that the EU concluded the Johnson government didn’t wish to reach an accord with the EU, but actually preferred an evolving situation of conflict and tension for domestic political reasons.

EU leaders are aware that after Johnson they will still be dealing with the same Conservative party and its powerful camp of hardliners the European Research Group, who with the coming leadership contest now have a fresh opportunity to use their voting block to impose their policy preferences. Among potential contenders, Liz Truss personally spearheaded the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which if pursued ensures a contentious relationship with the EU that may ultimately lead to a trade war. Another, attorney general Suella Braverman, signed off on its dubious legality.

“Unfortunately, a fundamental change of position in London with regard to the protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland is not to be expected,” was how David McAllister, a German MEP who chairs the European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee, put it.

A true change in the relationship may require an election and a Labour government. This has been underlined by a speech this week by the Labour leader Keir Starmer. In it, he said his approach would be to make the protocol work, which is with the EU’s position that it can compromise on how the agreement is implemented, but that it cannot be rewritten. What’s more, he said he would seek to reach a veterinary agreement for agricultural products — something that would remove much of the friction of the east/west border at the stroke of a pen.