Antony Blinken unsure about welcome waiting for him in China

It was all smiles at Beijing’s Diaoyutai state guest house on Friday when Xi Jinping welcomed Microsoft founder Bill Gates as an “old friend” and the first American guest he has met this year.

When secretary of state Antony Blinken arrives in Beijing on Sunday he will be the first US cabinet-level official to visit China since Joe Biden became president, but it remained unclear on Friday night if he will meet Xi.

“I often say the foundation of US-China relations lies with its people. I place my hopes on the American people,” Xi said during his meeting with Gates. “With the current global situation we can carry out various activities beneficial to our two countries and people, activities that benefit humanity as a whole.”

Blinken was due to visit Beijing four months ago but Washington cancelled the trip after a political storm over a Chinese spy balloon that flew across US airspace. Relations between the two superpowers have worsened since then as tensions rise over Taiwan, the Russian war in Ukraine, US sanctions against Chinese firms and China’s use of economic coercion in pursuit of diplomatic goals.

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Washington has sought for months to establish “guardrails” to prevent competition with Beijing from spiralling into confrontation and to restore direct military-to-military contacts to avoid dangerous misunderstandings.

Elements of the Washington foreign policy establishment close to the Biden administration have warned in recent months that the US should be careful not to walk itself into a military confrontation over Taiwan, a warning Henry Kissinger echoed this week. “On the current trajectory of relations I think some military conflict is probable,” the former US secretary of state told Bloomberg News. “But I also think the current trajectory of relations must be altered.”

Although China has portrayed the Biden administration as seeking an easing of diplomatic tensions on account of its own domestic troubles, Beijing has good reason to seek better relations too. Economic data this week confirmed that the post-Covid economic recovery is weaker than expected and geopolitical tensions are among the negative factors weighing on investors.

If Blinken’s two-day visit is a success it could pave the way for a meeting between Xi and Biden during a G20 summit in India in September and an invitation for the Chinese president to come to San Francisco in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.

Ahead of Blinken’s visit Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, played down expectations. “We’re not going to Beijing with the intent of having some sort of breakthrough or transformation in the way that we deal with one another,” he said. “We’re coming to Beijing with a realistic, confident approach, and a sincere desire to manage our competition in the most responsible way possible.”

White House Indo-Pacific co-ordinator Kurt Campbell said Washington pursued an approach towards Beijing that was competitive without veering into confrontation or conflict. “We are in competition with China, but we do not seek conflict, confrontation, or a new cold war. We are for managing the competition responsibly,” he said. “Intense competition requires intense diplomacy if we’re going to manage tensions.”

China’s foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Friday criticised Campbell’s framing of the relationship in terms of competition. He said there was competition in areas such as economy and trade, but there should be no “vicious zero-sum” competition.

“Still less should there be practices to contain or suppress one another in the name of competition and deprive China of its legitimate right to development. This is not ‘responsible competition’, but irresponsible bullying. It will only push the two countries towards confrontation and create a divided world,” he said.

“The US needs to give up the illusion of dealing with China ‘from a position of strength’. China and the US must develop relations on the basis of mutual respect and equality, respect their difference in history, culture, social system and development path, and accommodate each other’s core interests and major concerns.”

Wang said that if the US wanted dialogue and communication China’s door was open. But he said it was unacceptable to ask for such dialogue while trying to damage China’s interests.

“China again urges the US to deliver on president Biden’s positive statements, stop interfering in China’s internal affairs and damaging China’s interests, stop containing and suppressing China, and work with China to remove obstacles, create conditions and bring China-US relations gradually to the track of stable growth.”