The big kick-off

Bearing in mind that half the pack which was blitzed by the Springboks' midweek side at Ravenhill on Tuesday came from the undisputed kings of Irish club rugby, this perhaps shows where the AIB League sits in the greater scheme of things. Still, for better and for worse, it's upon us once more and there are valid reasons for presuming it will be better than the last season or two.

Reasons to be cheerful include the prodigal homecoming of 11 Irish internationals (admittedly, five of them at second division Dungannon) and arrival of others from across the water, along with about two dozen new recruits (including the Cork Con-bound Mark McConnell) from the Southern Hemisphere to clubs in the top two flights alone.

Allied to the continuing gravitation of the better players in the lower divisions to clubs in the top flight, this should bring about a general improvement in standards.

Reasons to be brassed off? Despite the unmitigated success of the Super 12-type bonus points scoring system in the Interprovincial Championship, a few of the IRFU committee members opposed its introduction to the AIL this season.

It would have encouraged more positive rugby, and would have added interest to end-of-season mid-table matches where before none would have existed. So why wasn't it ratified?

The reasoning, apparently, was that the league's rules had already been drawn up and sent to the clubs, possibly leaving the Union exposed to another `Wanderers' scenario. This is utterly ridiculous.

Where there's a will, there's a way. New rules could have been drawn up and signed by all 49 clubs. The clubs could have taken it upon themselves to lobby for it in writing. Sometimes, though, Irish rugby moves with the urgency of a snail on sedatives.

Another concern is the state of the pitches. If the AIL is to be left, as Gerry Murphy once said, sucking the hind tit of the season in terms of weather, then that underlines the need for better surfaces.

Aside from reducing the risks of cancellations, poor pitches seriously undermine skill levels. Citing the vagaries of an Irish winter is no use - the sand-based pitches in New Zealand which stand up to their rainy seasons show what can be done. This is more a case of priorities.

In the long term, too, the clubs are going to have to bite the bullet and accept reality - that they come behind the national and provincial set-ups and there is a need to reduce the top two divisions to a maximum of 10 clubs each.

If this means playing 18 games on a home-and-away basis, or dividing the AIL into two campaigns, in one of which they will be without their international players (with games on international weekends or provincial weekends), then so much the better.

In the short term, helped by the reduction in clubs from 14 to 12, theoretically the first division should be of a higher standard than the last season or so. Every team looks stronger on paper than it did last term, although rightly Shannon are 2 to 1 favourites against the rest of the field to make it five-in-a-row.

At this, they are probably generously priced. It would be astonishing if they failed to make the top four, and so effectively they are 2 to 1 to win two matches as the play-offs are thankfully with us again (even the ostriches amongst us might in time accept the AIL is more a championship than a league, and hence the play-offs are a welcome and guaranteed climax).

If Shannon gain home advantage in the semi-finals, it would be a snip at half the price. That's presuming, of course, that Thomond Park will be playable by April 17th. It may be no bad thing for the holders that their one scheduled home game before Christmas - next Saturday against Garryowen - has been postponed due to Munster's involvement in the European Cup quarter-finals that weekend.

As things stand, not once in the previous four years of their reign has Shannon's first-team squad had so many representative commitments. Alan Quinlan - ever present last season along with other key men such as Mick Galwey, Mark McDermott, Andrew Thompson and Rhys Ellison - is already struggling.

They will hardly enjoy such an injury-free run this season and so, though they are a more rounded side than ever before, if Shannon are to win their fifth title in succession, one suspects this will be the hardest of them.

If Shannon's standard-bearing has been a consistent theme, the list of challengers has been ever changeable. Big-spending Lansdowne and last year's runners-up Garryowen are the bookies' likeliest candidates this year, but there are plenty of rivals. Garryowen weren't that far ahead of the peloton last season anyway, and on top of a change of coach, the departed Barry Everitt has to be considered a loss, as might Stephen McIvor, Van Humphries and Gavin Walsh.

Lansdowne have recruited heavily, but that creates pressures of their own. One of the few new domestic arrivals on the coaching scene, Michael Cosgrave, has a tough job blending it all together.

There'll probably be at least two Limerick clubs in the semi-finals. While Young Munster may have been a bit flattered by last season's high finish, they have all the top teams at home and have been strengthened by a couple of Kiwis.

There could well be three from Munster again. Cork Constitution, with Michael Bradley on board, have come through a transitional period, finished strongly last season, have recruited stealthily and are good value at 16 to 1 with Paddy Powers.

Clontarf, with Castle Avenue, a serious pack and Brent Pope to goad them on, are also well-priced at 5 to 1 to be the leading Leinster club. However, Terenure seem well enough endowed to overcome last season's disappointment, especially with their strike three back in harness. Injuries to big players won't help a changed St Mary's, but you have to respect their credentials too.

The relegation issue could be even more intense and surprising, with Buccaneers, Galwegians and Blackrock seemingly the likely candidates.

Recalling Clontarf, though, it's feasible that post-promotion euphoria and big home crowds will help steer Buccaneers and/or Galwegians to at least mid-table.

Forecasts? Shannon, Young Munster, Cork Con and Terenure to reach the semi-finals, with Shannon retaining their crown; Blackrock and Buccaneers to go down, with Dungannon, UCD and Omagh to win the other divisions.