Michael Walker: We should relish uncertainty of first three-way Premier League title fight in a decade

The last two teams to beat Manchester City this season in any competition were Arsenal in October and Aston Villa in December, both in the Premier League. City’s next two opponents are Arsenal and Aston Villa, both in the Premier League.

This coincidence might give others hope, but those two City defeats were in London and Birmingham. These are the Manchester legs, so to speak. Arsenal are first at the Etihad Stadium, on Sunday, where they have not won since January 2015. Villa, who have not won a league game there since 2007, visit next Wednesday.

Historic statistics are always set aside when the whistle blows, but in each case they tend to reinforce the notion that neither club travels well in the north of England.

Of course, this history takes in the modern Pep Guardiola years as well. It is season eight for him in east Manchester and Guardiola’s relevance is hardly diminishing. City have played 21 games since that loss at Villa – plus two in Fifa’s Club World Cup held, inevitably, in Saudi Arabia. They are third in the Premier League, a menacing point off top, have reached the semi-final of the FA Cup and the last eight of the Champions League. Twelve months ago City won a treble via these competitions. Another is not unforeseeable.

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In what is being billed as the most exciting Premier League title run-in for years, a genuine contest between three impressive teams, it might seem predictable and drama-free to focus on City, but they are favourites for more than one reason. Bluntly, if City win their remaining 10 matches to reach 93 points, then Arsenal cannot win the title and Liverpool would also have to win all 10 of their remaining fixtures. Even a draw in only one of them would mean Liverpool’s maximum is 92 points.

But can City do that? An answer is that when they needed to win 10 in a row last season at this time, City did so. The pressure generated on others saw Arsenal eventually snap at Nottingham Forest and City had a third consecutive title with three games to spare. It meant City could focus on the FA Cup and Champions League finals and won both.

Notably in that Premier League run, City beat Arsenal 4-1 in Manchester. It was 3-0 after 54 minutes. Afterwards Mikel Arteta mixed honesty and lament when he said Arsenal were “at our level, not their level”.

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We know City’s level, particularly in big matches such as the Manchester derby at the start of the month. Yet expecting them to win 10 out of 10 does not have the whiff of probability it had a year ago. In their most recent league game – at Liverpool – there was the sight of City players in the second half simply booting the ball clear, the state their opponents are usually reduced to.

Arsenal, moreover, are better than a year ago. How much better, we are about to discover, but if Declan Rice can organise a defensive midfield display that earns the Gunners a draw on Sunday, then his transfer cost will receive further justification, Arsenal will gain belief, plus they will stay a point ahead of City, who could no longer reach 93 points.

There is something psychological in the chipping away of that number. Villa, who will expect more than hope to beat Wolves at home on Saturday, would take some momentum to Manchester in their pursuit of Champions League football next season. And two draws, not even two defeats, would drop City’s maximum potential total to 89 points.

Before demolishing Sheffield United at Bramall Lane at the start of the month, Arteta speculated “anything under 90 points I think would be very difficult” in terms of emerging first. The recent records of City and Liverpool mean we understand why he said this. But he could be wrong. This is the first three-way title fight in a decade and the possibilities multiply.

After Arsenal and Villa, City move on to Crystal Palace next Saturday, but on the horizon, and in City heads, will be Real Madrid away three days later. City walloped them 5-1 on aggregate last May, but Madrid, like Arsenal, feel like a more developed side one year on.

This may sound like the shoehorning of jeopardy into the run-in but in City’s quest for an unprecedented fourth straight league title, even the presence of what-ifs and maybes reveals something of the tension at the top.

Arsenal is the first of four games in 10 days for Guardiola’s uber-squad, 10 days to shape a season. And when we reflect the last time Arsenal did win there, the opening scorer – against Joe Hart – was Santi Cazorla, it’s different-era stuff. It was so long ago Arsène Wenger was still in charge.

New-era Arsenal – and it has seemed that way over the sweep of matches when they put six past West Ham as well as Sheffield United, five past Palace and Burnley and four past Newcastle – have yet to prove they can attain City’s level. A show of Sunday resilience would reveal they have.

But City are entitled to point to Arsenal also being in the last eight of the Champions League – against Bayern Munich – and as it stands Arsenal have eight games in 26 days in April, a testing sequence culminating in a trip to Tottenham, whose schedule is light by comparison and whose season may very much be alive.

Even before luck, injuries, VAR interventions and form are factored in, all of these scenarios work against confident prediction. As soon as City remind Arsenal of Spurs, the Gunners’ retort will be that City have to travel to Tottenham too, and have not won in the league there under Guardiola.

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Liverpool, who may feel a bit left out so far, have also to face Spurs, albeit at Anfield.

There on Sunday Jürgen Klopp’s young and developing/ageing and experienced squad host Brighton before City-Arsenal kick off. It is an opportunity to influence thinking – if Liverpool win.

Klopp’s squad also have their own European expedition to cope with and they have some tricky away games, such as Everton and Villa. Improving on two clean sheets in nine in the league in 2024 would help – Arsenal have four from eight.

But then Arsenal’s last five away games are at clubs in the top nine places currently.

And off we go again.

As April looms, this welcome uncertainty is stimulating and we should relish it; because if May brings another City procession, it will be underwhelming, as will be said 115 times and more.