Stephen Kenny’s Ireland tenure likely to end next month with Lee Carsley the FAI’s preferred successor

A formal decision on Stephen Kenny’s future as Republic of Ireland manager is due after FAI director of football Marc Canham delivers an assessment of the European Championships qualification campaign to the board of directors on November 28th.

A similar approach was taken by Canham following the women’s World Cup in Australia this summer when the board voted, on his recommendation, not to offer Vera Pauw a new contract.

The overriding statistics when it comes to judging Kenny’s 3½ years in charge, are six wins and 15 losses from 28 competitive matches. The 51-year-old conceded that his days could be numbered following the 4-0 defeat of Gibraltar in Faro on Monday night.

“The fact we lost at home to Greece, I understand there are implications for that, but at the same time, since the end of Covid we have won 11, lost 10 and drawn six in 27 games including friendlies.”

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In 2023, Ireland have suffered five losses from seven Euros qualifiers.

“We lost both games to Greece, which has hurt us and I understand there are implications for that,” Kenny repeated.

With a playoff to reach Germany 2024 fading from view, Ireland are set to experience a 10-month hiatus from competitive matches. When the Nations League resumes in September 2024, the focus will have switched to what the FAI executive achieved during this period. Jonathan Hill, the association’s chief executive, deals directly with Kenny but future managers will report to Canham as the “football pyramid” – Hill’s phraseology – begins to take shape.

It would enhance the two Englishmen’s standing within the Irish game if Kenny’s successor can be appointed by January 2024 as this would avoid a similar situation to the women’s set-up, where Eileen Gleeson is double jobbing as head of women’s football and senior manager. Canham has spent the past six weeks interviewing candidates for Pauw’s former position.

The Ireland manager claims to have constructed an “incredible high-performance environment” and while that is true of the backroom staff, classing it as an “environment” is contradicted by the FAI admitting in June that their Abbotstown facilities fall significantly short of international standards. The association cannot afford the €47 million required to create a national training centre, not without Government funding, as they are saddled with a debt of €43 million.

Since 2020, Kenny teams have produced pockets of competitive moments, most memorably in Portugal two years ago and during the 1-0 loss to France last March.

“Over the course of the campaign, you look at fine margins in a lot of games,” said Josh Cullen, the Burnley midfielder. “We put in some good performances. When it comes down to the final details in the game, we either haven’t been good enough or things haven’t gone our way.”

Between these questionable “fine margins” and the lack of a “ruthless” streak from the players, as Kenny noted over the weekend, Ireland have been reduced to also-ran status when it comes to the business of qualifying for major tournaments.

One of the primary functions of a manager is to inspire ruthlessness. Such a shortfall could be solved by the recruitment of England under-21 coach Lee Carsley, the outstanding candidate to replace Kenny according to a source in Irish football.

The second youngest squad in Europe were never in contention to reach the 2022 World Cup or Euro 2024, and with 17 defeats from 38 total matches under the former Dundalk manager, Ireland cannot consider themselves a second-tier football nation similar to Gus Poyet’s Greece.

“It’s not for the want of trying,” said Jamie McGrath, the Aberdeen midfielder who Kenny capped along with 19 other players.

“The staff, the gaffer, Keith, everyone’s on the same page here, we all want to go in the same direction. There’s no denying we were not good enough over the campaign; we put on some really good performances, but didn’t get anything in return. France, we could have drawn 1-1 and it [the campaign] is completely different.”

Ireland are a younger group since James McClean and Jeff Hendrick were cut loose, presenting Canham with an enormous task to turn damning results in the early 2020s into qualification for a home European Championships in 2028.

“We are losing leaders in the dressingroom,” McGrath continued. “We’ve lost James [McClean], Séamus [Coleman] hasn’t been around as much as he’d want, so it’s up to the older players to step up and be leaders within the group.

“We still have Shane [Duffy], we still have Doc [Matt Doherty], but we are slowly elevating. I’m sure there’ll be a few 21s called up in the next few years as well. The likes of Jason [Knight] is flying now, he’s got a lot of caps under his belt at a young age, and there is a really good core group of young players coming through.

“How ruthless it can be is a real eye-opener. The age group is drastically changed into a younger squad. Hopefully these knocks, for want of a better word, will give the boys more experience going forward.”

Gavin Bazunu recently noted that established internationals, regardless of age, need to take more responsibility for results, and Evan Ferguson’s three goals in six starts has created lofty expectations around the Premier League striker.

“We can’t put too much pressure on the boys,” said McGrath. “Evan is only 18, so we are going to have to be patient with him. We all have to watch out for him and not let the pressure get to him too much. But to be fair, I think he’ll handle that himself. He’s a really level-headed fellah.”