Ken Early: Loss of key men feels like a bad punchline for Ireland and Kenny

At the Parc des Princes for his press conference to preview tonight’s Euro 2024 qualifier against France, Stephen Kenny was asked if he was hoping he might have some good luck for a change.

“I don’t really look at it like that,” he replied. “I’m very privileged to manage Ireland.”

No doubt it’s better for someone in Kenny’s position not to admit that “yes, we’ll need all the luck we can get”, but overall his denial that luck is a factor he gives much thought to was about as convincing as Eddie Howe’s recent claim that “worry’s not really an emotion I feel in management”.

Kenny really has been an unlucky Ireland manager, seldom more so than this week, as he faces into two games that could decide his fate as Ireland manager.

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“The attacking players that are missing, five of them, Michael Obafemi, Troy Parrott, Mikey Johnston, Callum Robinson and.. you know, we’re missing five players... I’ve left someone out there... oh, Evan Ferguson of course …”

When I looked at the Greece game, I didn’t see myself as a coach in the team

Ah yes, Evan Ferguson. In Germany, they have the expression “Bayern-Dusel” or Bayern-Luck, referring to Bayern’s uncanny habit of snatching undeserved wins at the last minute. The Germans would have come up with a word for what happens to Stephen Kenny by now. The gods of football must have been falling around the place laughing as they came up with this latest one. Set-up: Ferguson becomes the first teenager to score a Premier League hat-trick in 25 years. Punchline: he’s promptly ruled out of Ireland’s matches against France and the Netherlands with injury.

On Saturday, we watched in dismay as Ferguson slowly picked himself up after a challenge by Newcastle’s Bruno Guimaraes and signalled to the Brighton bench that he had felt something in his knee.

He had seemed untroubled by the knock after the game, and made no mention of it in the congratulatory post-match interviews. But shortly before midday, the dreaded bulletin arrived that after consultation with the Irish medical staff, he would be unable to play the games.

Asked last night how long Ferguson was likely to be out for, Kenny’s response was intriguing. “It was well reported that it was an injury in the game, in a challenge. That’s not the case, actually. I think it’s more one he has been playing on, a patellar tendon injury, a knee injury he has had some pain in. He felt after the other night he was too sore, he just couldn’t play … We have to respect that. It obviously was too sore, he was in too much pain.”

Kenny’s use of the phrase “we have to respect that” made you wonder if some part of him was wishing Ferguson could have pushed the pain barrier for these matches. But we really should respect that, frustrating though it is to be without him for such important games. The last teenager to score a Premier League hat-trick before Ferguson was Michael Owen, whose career turned into a cautionary tale about the dangers of overplaying young players. Ask Ronaldo Nazario or Alan Shearer about patellar tendon injuries. Let’s give that knee all the time and space it needs.

Kenny can at least call on Aaron Connolly and Adam Idah, the potential strike duo who were ruled out by Covid restrictions before the Euro 2020 playoff against Slovakia, Kenny’s first big test as Ireland manager. A lot has happened in those three years. Connolly’s career nosedived, and is now in a rebuilding phase, while Idah’s development was stalled by multiple injuries. Idah will probably start against France, but expectations have subsided since his great days with the under-21 side.

The manager, meanwhile, has since led Ireland into four competitive series, between qualifiers and Nations League campaigns. The team opened each of the last three campaigns by losing their first two matches to effectively rule themselves out of contention from the outset. Rather than chasing glory, Ireland have been reduced to managing expectations and limiting damage.

There have been 11 defeats in 24 competitive matches, none more painful than the most recent one. The 2-1 loss in Athens, particularly the manner in which a stunned-looking Ireland were given the runaround by Greece in the first 20 minutes, shattered much of the remaining confidence in Kenny.

The last teenager to score a Premier League hat-trick before Ferguson was Michael Owen, whose career turned into a cautionary tale about the dangers of overplaying young players

“When I looked at it, I didn’t see myself as a coach in the team,” Kenny said last week – but if you haven’t put a visible stamp on the team after nearly three years, people will legitimately start to wonder if it’s ever going to happen. Without a dramatic improvement in performances, Kenny’s hopes of a further contract extension beyond Euro 2024 look remote.

But this depleted Ireland team, without the aforementioned raft of attackers, and also without experienced defenders in Seamus Coleman and Matt Doherty, with John Egan hoping to play despite injuries to knee and ankle – what chance of them delivering the kind of performance Kenny needs against a France team who are, quite simply, better in every position? The great Kylian Mbappé must be looking forward to captaining his national team at his club’s home ground. He’s started the season averaging a goal every 44 minutes for PSG. Let’s just hope this one doesn’t get ugly.