No foregone conclusion but Ireland look well-equipped to cope with Borthwick’s game plan

Ireland’s current rude health in rugby terms sits about as easily as a hair shirt for many supporters whose skittishness or sense of foreboding has kicked into overdrive this week as they pondered a visit to Twickenham.

There is a desperation to be grown up about the situation. Ireland have won 20 of their last 21 Test matches, the outlier a defeat to New Zealand in the World Cup quarter-final. But it still isn’t sufficient for many to be comfortable with the dreaded tag of favouritism. Only the foolish think the result is a foregone conclusion.

Steve Borthwick’s England are in a different place to their visitors. But as Ireland teams often proved in the past, an underdog can chow down and swallow a reputation in upsetting the form book on a given day.

The England head coach spoke at Thursday’s team announcement about continuity of selection and there’s certainly a paper trail in that respect when examining his preferences from the moment he took over from Eddie Jones in December 2022. He retained faith in pretty much the same group of players in last season’s Six Nations through the five games.

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While he experimented more in the World Cup warm-up matches, his first-choice team in the global tournament in France bore a familiar look, a theme that’s continued into the current Six Nations.

Hooker and captain Jamie George, Maro Itoje, Ollie Chessum, Sam Underhill, Ben Earl, George Ford, Elliott Daly, Henry Slade, and Tommy Freeman will have started all four matches in this season’s Six Nations come Saturday evening. But for injury scrumhalf Alex Mitchell – he’s played two and is back for Ireland having missed the Scotland game – could have been added to that number.

Props Ellis Genge and Dan Cole have won the starting slots having been benched for the first two games while centre Ollie Lawrence and fullback George Furbank, a try scorer against the Scots, have muscled past Fraser Dingwall and Freddie Steward respectively in what appears to be a shift in emphasis style-wise.

George Martin has been injured so his return to the starting team isn’t a surprise with Chessum shifting to the back row. Manu Tuilagi hasn’t yet been able to win back his place after injury with Borthwick honouring his continuity commitment when weighed against the way that he wants the team to play.

The perception from the outside is that there is a slightly muddled look to his thinking with Ford’s presence at outhalf taken to favour a more kick-orientated approach but without the exceptional aerial ability of Steward, who hasn’t made the match day 23 since starting the first two matches in the tournament.

It’s definitely a policy because looking at the figures for the ‘kicks in play’ metric, they are strikingly similar across the first three matches of the tournament – 31 (Italy), 32 (Wales) and 31 (Scotland) – while England’s ‘kick metres’ were in excess of 800 in the matches they won, against Italy and Wales and appreciably less in the defeat to Scotland (621).

When Danny Care was brought in for the game at Murrayfield it was suggested the Harlequins scrumhalf’s presence might bring more of a running approach but that wasn’t borne out by the numbers with the short kicking/tactical kicking (that includes box-kicking) identical at 22 to the Welsh match.

When Mitchell kicks between the 22s so to speak, England chase with one winger who hugs the touchline and bends his run in an effort to outflank the opponents’ ‘escort’ who stand their ground as they amble back to protect the catcher, and either two backrows, or one and a hooker follow suit.

The winger looks to tap back if the clean catch isn’t on with his two buddies on hand to win loose ball or compete for a breakdown turnover. Calvin Nash and James Lowe can expect to spend some time staring into the sky above Twickenham.

The non attributable whispering campaign emanating from the England camp that players were fed up with a focus on defence rather than attack seems at odds with the introduction of Immanuel Feyi-Waboso for his first start. It would be ludicrous to try to embed a 21-year-old without having a clear idea of what the attack looks like and ensuring sufficient reps. Wouldn’t it?

Borthwick’s match day 23 also suggests that he is looking to use club familiarity in personnel terms. Feyi-Waboso plays outside centre Henry Slade for the Exeter Chiefs – they use a blitz defence – so that connection should help the younger player to settle. Genge and Cole scrummaged together for the Leicester Tigers before the former moved to Bristol, while the bench contains a group of Harlequins players.

The understanding gleaned from playing together at club level should facilitate cohesion when Chandler Cunningham-South – he was part of the England team beaten by Ireland in the Under-20 Grand Slam game in Cork last year – Alex Dombrandt, Danny Care and Marcus Smith are introduced; a 6/7, 8, 9, 10 hook-up of clubmates.

Part of the outside narrative when praising Ireland’s excellent Test match record is that the presence of so many players from the one province facilitates understanding through familiarity.

The England head coach has been methodical and consistent, his style more evolution than revolution, And while the pace of change may not be to everyone’s liking, he is a man with a plan, who has got to ignore the white noise. The home side don’t need to find a definitive playing identity this afternoon, just a way to win a Test match.

It may be beyond them now to deny Ireland victory unless the visitors are complicit in their undoing, panicked passing in the face of the blitz defence or suffering a set piece meltdown.

There’s no reason to suspect that will be the case. Andy Farrell has a full buy-in from his players. They are comfortable, confident and capable and, if properly attuned, there should be no Irish fingernails bitten to the quick in the stands. It won’t be easy, nor should it be; Ireland will have to earn everything they get.