Red army expects Munster to deliver, but dominant Leinster are solid favourites

United Rugby Championship semi-final: Leinster v Munster,

Saturday, Aviva Stadium, 5.30pm,

(Live on RTÉ and Premier Sports)

So, they meet again, and once more with feeling. While there may be an element of Aviva fatigue and even of Leinster-Munster fatigue, the biggest domestic rivalry in world rugby these past couple of decades rarely ceases to intrigue and this looks like no exception.

The stakes are high too. It was at this point last season, albeit in reverse order, that Leinster’s season crashed in the semi-finals of this competition and the Champions Cup final.

Even so, whereas Leinster can still take their haul of trophies to 11 by the end of the campaign since losing the 2011 Magners League final against their rivals at Thomond Park, Munster are seeking their first trophy since then.

Yet a Munster victory here would suddenly put an entirely different gloss on something of a roller-coaster season —admittedly nothing unusual there — and earn a final away to the Stormers or at home to Connacht.

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Leinster’s reward would be a home final, and potentially a shot at only the second double in the province’s history, the week after next Saturday’s revenge mission against La Rochelle, now a sell-out.

And it is the looming presence of the team coached by Munster and Ireland’s all-time record points scorer that has meant Leinster shuffle their cards again, with seven changes to the starting XV.

Jimmy O’Brien, Tommy O’Brien and the fit-again Robbie Henshaw are restored to the back line. Ronan Kelleher makes his first appearance since the Six Nations after recovering from his latest shoulder injury, and Michael Ala’alatoa, Will Connors and Jack Conan are all also recalled up front. All quality players.

Hugo Keenan, Jordan Larmour, Dan Sheehan, Tadgh Furlong and Caelan Doris are rested, so joining Garry Ringrose, Ross Byrne, Jamison Gibson-Park, Andrew Porter, Ross Molony and James Ryan in the stands, while Josh van der Flier is on the bench after being sidelined since the quarter-final win over Toulouse with an ankle injury.

Munster are without the in-form quartet RG Snyman, Conor Murray, Malakai Fekitoa and Charlie Nash. But none too surprisingly, Peter O’Mahony will lead Munster despite that arm injury in the quarter-final win away to Glasgow.

Keith Earls, whose season appeared to be over due to a groin injury, Ben Healy, Craig Casey and John Hodnett all come into the side, with Tadgh Beirne shifting from blindside to the secondrow and Jack Crowley moving to centre.

Jack O’Donoghue and Neil Cronin return to the 23 but remarkably, there is still no place for Joey Carbery, who was married last Wednesday, as Rory Scannell is named on the bench.

“Yeah, a little bit of a surprise,” agreed Leinster coach Leo Cullen when asked. “I don’t know what you want me to say, but definitely a surprise.”

Munster are in strong form, particularly on their travels. The shockingly porous defeats by Glasgow and the Sharks prompted a renewed emphasis on defence, while still showing glimpses of their improved attack by manipulating the opposition with well-worked tries in each of their last three games.

Having ended long unbeaten home runs by the Stormers and Glasgow, Munster will believe they can repeat the trick against a Leinster side unbeaten at home all season.

Yet that win against Glasgow shouldn’t have been as uncomfortable as it transpired against 14 men, and Graham Rowntree admitted they will need to be considerably better.

They have also lost 10 of their last 11 games against Leinster — the only exception being a win in the Rainbow Cup — and have lost 12 of 13 in this ground, prompting a certain defeatism among their supporters. Perhaps most significantly, Leinster have won 25 games in a row at the Aviva with crowds present.

Cullen was almost scornful by his standards of Munster’s overt emphasis on a kicking strategy in the semi-finals three years ago, but said: “It’s a different game at the moment. The game is evolving all the time and I don’t see them kicking the leather off the ball, especially with Casey at 9, they’ll try and play a bit more tempo for sure.”

Excited by the opportunity which this game presents to his players, Cullen added: “They need to try and deliver now because they know what’s at stake. There’s the game itself, a semi-final, and the losers are out of the competition.

“There is the broader piece as well in terms of players wanting to be involved in the final next week and, if we win this game, the final the following week as well. And there’s that World Cup piece that’s looming in the background as well. There’s so much at stake and Munster will be saying the exact same.”

What’s more, Munster’s scrum could even have an edge, and with a host of breakdown threats in Beirne, Hodnett, Coombes and O’Mahony, may disrupt some of Leinster’s flow. And if they get an early foothold on the scoreboard, they have a real chance.

But there must be a doubt about O’Mahony’s fitness over 80 minutes and their ability to cope with Leinster’s launch players and live with their tempo.

Leinster: Jimmy O’Brien, Tommy O’Brien, Robbie Henshaw, Charlie Ngatai, Dave Kearney, Harry Byrne, Luke McGrath (capt), Michael Milne, Rónan Kelleher, Michael Ala’alatoa, Ryan Baird, Jason Jenkins, Max Deegan, Will Connors, Jack Conan. Replacements: John McKee, Cian Healy, Thomas Clarkson, Joe McCarthy, Josh van der Flier, Nick McCarthy, Ciarán Frawley, Liam Turner.

Munster: Mike Haley, Keith Earls, Antoine Frisch, Jack Crowley, Shane Daly, Ben Healy, Craig Casey, Jeremy Loughman, Diarmuid Barron, Stephen Archer, Jean Kleyn, Tadhg Beirne, Peter O’Mahony (capt), John Hodnett, Gavin Coombes. Replacements: Niall Scannell, Josh Wycherley, Roman Salanoa, Fineen Wycherley, Jack O’Donoghue, Neil Cronin, Rory Scannell, Alex Kendellen.

Referee: Frank Murphy (IRFU).

Overall URC record: Played 47. Leinster 32 wins. Munster 15 wins.

Betting (Paddy Power): 1/5 Leinster, 22/1 Draw, 7/2 Munster. Handicap odds (Munster + 10 pts) 10/11 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, Munster 10/11.

Forecast: Leinster to win.