Munster v Leinster: Munster locked and loaded but Leinster still have the firepower

Munster v Leinster, Thomond Park, St Stephen’s Day, 7.35pm – Live on TG4 and Premier Sports

Leo Cullen is usually aware of the bigger picture, and whenever yet another full house attends an Irish interprovincial derby he makes a point of describing it as another celebration of Irish rugby. No fixture typifies that more than meetings between these two, and for the first time in three Covid-interrupted years, it is back in its traditional festive slot with a Thomond Park full house. Now that’s definitely worth celebrating.

Constant rumours of its demise over the last few years once again appear premature. Not even Leinster’s increasing superiority in the fixture, nor interpro overkill in those bleak pandemic times and five meetings between the two in spectatorless echo chambers, seems to have diminished its appeal.

Last season’s two meetings did witness a relative dip in the customary Thomond Park and Aviva Stadium attendances, but the remarkable turnout of 45,436 for their URC encounter at the latter venue nine weeks ago will now be backed up by a 26,500 capacity crowd, swollen by expats home for Christmas, for this latest renewal.

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Since the start of the 2008-09 season, over one million spectators have attended the last 30 clashes between these two old rivals, with an average attendance of 34,211. Outside of Test rugby there is simply no other fixture with such sustained support in global rugby.

Of course, Leinster’s 25-6 win over Munster, the then reigning Heineken Cup champions, in front of a then club record attendance of 82,208 at Croke Park in 2009, also marked a seismic shift in the balance of power. Munster had won two of the previous three Heineken Cups and though they had the scant consolation of winning the Magners League that season, and again in 2011 when they beat Leinster in the final, they haven’t won a trophy since.

Leinster went on to win the first of four Heineken Cups in their ensuing final against Leicester in Murrayfield, also reaching the final twice more, as well as winning a European Challenge Cup and adding another six league titles to take their haul to eight in the URC’s many iterations.

The shift is equally pronounced in the history of this fixture. Munster had won 20, drawn two and lost nine of the previous 31 meetings before that seminal semi-final in 2009, but, starting with that day, Leinster have won 26 of the last 34 clashes.

This has been extended by a run of nine wins in the last 10, including three wins in a row here, the only exception being a Rainbow Cup defeat in April 2021 with an inexperienced side against a virtually full-strength Munster at an empty RDS.

As expected, Munster are again as locked and loaded as they could be, making only two injury-related changes to the starting XV for last week’s gritty win away to Northampton, with Shane Daly and David Kilcoyne replacing Mike Haley and Jeremy Loughman. This is their standout URC home game of the season. The fixture demands their best, in every sense.

Besides, although Haley has been playing superb rugby lately, Daly has been in good form too, and the return of Kilcoyne, who made 17 tackles in his half-hour off the bench last week, for his first game since October is a boost.

So, it’s once more unto the breach for the likes of Tadhg Beirne, playing his eighth game in eight weeks for province or country, and Peter O’Mahony, for whom this is a sixth in a row, and so on.

But as the rejuvenated Gavin Coombes said before the Northampton game: “It’s hard not to like it when you’re coming to a full Thomond Park as well. If these two games don’t get you excited, I don’t know what will get you excited.”

Coombes and co have had an eight-day turnaround into this game. They’ll also take plenty of encouragement from that win in Franklin’s Gardens, be it the inventive brand of their rugby when Coombes scored the game’s two tries in the first half, or the defensive defiance of the second, when Coombes contributed the vast bulk of his 28 tackles.

Munster will need to be every bit as clinical with the chances they create and resourceful in defence. By contrast, Cullen has made 19 changes to Leinster’s starting line-up which trounced Gloucester last week, but with their unrivalled depth chart, these things are relative.

The pity is that Johnny Sexton has been excused duty, meaning that he has probably fulfilled the role of pantomime villain here for the last time. The surprise is that Garry Ringrose captains the side yet again in his absence. This is Ringrose’s 12th game for province and country in the last 14 weeks, starting all but one of them. He has played 80 minutes in nine of them. Even in his one stint off the bench he played an hour, and it’s not as if Leinster don’t have options aplenty among their conveyor belt of versatile young backs.

But the presence of the in-form Ringrose does point to the latent threat of their outside backs, with the fit-again Jordan Larmour restored, and James Lowe a different player now from the one sent off when Leinster last lost here four years ago.

There’s also the control and composure of Ross Byrne, the power of Andrew Porter (making his 100th Leinster appearance), Dan Sheehan, Joe McCarthy and a fresh and hungry backrow.

So, of course, it is still a strong side. When do Leinster field anything but? And it probably only heightens the desperation for Munster team and fans alike when Leinster rotate, for they’re damned if they win and damned if they don’t. And bookmakers still make Leinster, who’ve won 11 out of 11 this season, four-point favourites.

Yet, fine prospect though John McKee looks, and there’s still plenty of firepower on the bench, the loss of Michael Ala’alatoa in addition to Tadhg Furlong has to diminish Leinster’s scrum. Munster have momentum now too. Their component attacking and defensive parts look in the best shape so far under the new order, and Thomond Park will be in full, partisan voice.

Munster’s need is also the more acute, albeit that’s been true the past while, but they look as well primed as they’ve been for this fixture in quite some time.

MUNSTER: Shane Daly; Calvin Nash, Antoine Frisch, Jack Crowley, Keith Earls; Joey Carbery, Conor Murray; Dave Kilcoyne, Niall Scannell, John Ryan; Jean Kleyn, Tadhg Beirne; Jack O’Donoghue, Peter O’Mahony (capt), Gavin Coombes.

Replacements: Diarmuid Barron, Josh Wycherley, Roman Salanoa, Kiran McDonald, Alex Kendellen, Craig Casey, Rory Scannell, Patrick Campbell.

LEINSTER: Hugo Keenan; Jordan Larmour, Garry Ringrose (capt), Jamie Osborne, James Lowe; Ross Byrne, Nick McCarthy; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Cian Healy; Ryan Baird, Joe McCarthy, Rhys Ruddock, Scott Penny, Max Deegan.

Replacements: John McKee, Michael Milne, Vakhtang Abdaladze, Ross Molony, Jack Conan, Luke McGrath, Harry Byrne, Liam Turner.

Referee: Chris Busby (IRFU)

Overall URC head-to-head record: Played 46, Munster won 15, Leinster won 31.

Forecast: Munster to win.