Leinster looking to turn all the good numbers into the only one that counts

Leinster’s 42-10 win over Racing 92 last weekend in the first round of this year’s Champion’s Cup was, in terms of accumulated points, topped only by La Rochelle’s 46-12 win over Northampton Saints.

Already the two finalists from last season have laid down early markers.

But as Leinster know only too well and what was borne out last season in the competition, is that conquest in Europe will come down to winning big moments more than consistent excellence from the four-times winners.

It helps, of course, to rag doll a French club in a six-try match in Le Havre. But so too was Leinster coach Robin McBryde right to exercise caution this week about the visit of a winning Gloucester side to the RDS on Friday.

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Leinster’s cautionary tale was written in the numbers last season after narrowly losing to La Rochelle in the final, the second time the Dublin side have lost in a European final in four seasons. Leinster have not won the trophy since beating Racing 15-12 in 2018.

Of the 11 sections of statistics from last year’s European competition published by the EPCR, ranging from tries scored to tackles, Leinster topped the group in eight of them, or, were best in class almost 73 per cent of the time.

They scored more tries, accumulated more points, made more carries, kicked more conversions, made more clean breaks, beat more defenders, covered more metres of ground and landed more tackles than any other club and still didn’t win.

The only one of the 11 sections that winners La Rochelle topped was penalties conceded. In other words, the team that gave away the most penalties, 96, in the competition won it and the team that came tops in just about everything else were runner-up.

Obviously, the club that plays most matches in a semi knock-out competition will have better numbers than a club that doesn’t make it from the pool stage. To win this season a team will have to play four group matches and four knock-out rounds. Even so Leinster’s overall 47 tries last season were 20 tries better than both Premiership side Harlequins and the French winners, who scored 27 tries.

With a 364-point total, Leinster scored over 100 points more than their nearest rival Racing 92, who finished on 235 points and in clean breaks Leinster reached 73 with no other team getting to 40.

Metres made was perhaps the most impressive number with Leinster’s 6,961 more than 1,000 greater than nearest rival La Rochelle, who made 5,324 and 2,000 better than third placed Toulouse.

This week McBryde also mentioned the phrase ‘problem solve’ with regard to the Leinster team. He pointed to the way their scrum struggled last week, when Trevor Nyakane came into the match and suggested players need to work things out in real time.

That could be one of the themes for the year. In last year’s final, Leinster led the match for all but 12 minutes and despite their 47 tries over the course of the competition didn’t score one try, all three coming from La Rochelle.

Statistics can lead you down any path you want to go down and at the end of the day carving out a win in a final is itself a measurable statistic. Leinster have been to six European finals and lost two. So, despite bearing the scars from last season the numbers are on their side.

In terms of indicators good numbers should help build confidence with Leinster evidently kicking on from where they left off at the end of last season. Against Racing, Leinster made 16 entries into the opposition 22, more than any other club in round one.

In addition, Leinster also set up the most mauls in the first round making 41 metres from 17. The scoring prowess of hooker Rónan Kelleher and Dan Sheehan are as a direct result of the attacking Leinster lineout.

Four of Leinster’s six tries against Racing began with a lineout, which obviously tells Gloucester this week where some of the scoring threats will come from. Gloucester have played Leinster twice before, losing in Dublin 37-20 and winning in Kingsholm 19-13 in the pool stage of the 2006-07 competition.

Leinster will want to keep their numbers high but tennis player Brad Gilbert, who published a book in 1993 called Winning Ugly, had more to say. The key to success, he said, is to become a better thinking player, to recognise, analyse, and capitalise. When there are two players of equal ability, the one who’s aware of and takes advantage of the opportunities, dynamics, and openings before, during and after the match will win.

It appears McBryde, at least, is already thinking like that.