Leinster look to have edge on Munster as Sexton and Carbery face off at the Aviva

URC: Leinster v Munster, Aviva Stadium, Saturday, 5.15 – Live RTÉ 2 and Premier Sports

This marquee fixture may be missing some marquee names, but it’s still Leinster v Munster. Two tribes go to war and all that. Even played in empty stadia, as we’ve sadly discovered, it still matters hugely to both squads, and now that the fixture’s biggest attendance in three years is assured, likewise for the supporters.

Amid it all, there’s the duel at ‘10′ between Johnny Sexton and Joey Carbery. The rivalry has never had the same poisonous atmosphere which the Sexton-Ronan O’Gara clash initially possessed before their relationship morphed into a strong friendship.

There isn’t the same clash of like-minded personalities and, of course, Sexton has remained the main man by playing some wonderful rugby deep into his 30s.

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That said, it did have a feisty beginning in their first meeting at Thomond Park in December 2018. Carbery kicked 14 points in a 26-17 win on a wild night in Thomond Park, when Munster completed an unbeaten record in the calendar year as James Lowe was red-carded, Cian Healy and Tadhg Furlong were sinbinned, and Sexton became the crowd’s pantomime villain.

Sexton and Carbery have actually only opposed each other twice since, both times at the RDS. Andy Farrell will be an intrigued, if fretful, observer – not that he’d show it.

Each has played sublimely in their sole start apiece at outhalf this season. Sexton was at his masterful best with a near flawless performance in the win over the Sharks a fortnight ago, landing seven conversions and scoring a try.

Carbery was also at his elegant best last week in guiding Munster to their bonus-point win over the Bulls. He had a key hand in three of Munster’s four tries, and among his rich array of kicks there was a 50/22 in the build-up to Gavin Coombes’s second try and that counterattack and visionary left-footed chip into space for Jeremy Loughman’s finish. As usual, he also landed all his kicks.

Intriguingly, two of their talented young back-up outhalves, Ciarán Frawley and Jack Crowley, make their first provincial starts at fullback. Given the good weather forecast, having two out-and-out playmakers in each backline ought to contribute to the game’s fluidity.

Obviously though, the lines in the sand will be drawn up front, where Leinster have four of the first-choice Irish pack in New Zealand and more experience on the bench.

One bookmaker makes Leinster a whopping 18-point favourites on the handicap, and 1-20 to win, with Munster rated as 11-1 underdogs. Munster might relish that. When Peter O’Mahony spoke of the hysterical coverage around his side’s early season difficulties after their win over the Bulls, it suggested they had circled the wagons in classic us-against-the-world mentality. Yet it is the absence of O’Mahony, along with Tadhg Beirne which would appear to make their task all the harder.

This evening’s latest instalment in the rivalry has become a test of the respective strength in depth, and that usually only means one outcome.

Graham Rowntree has again been forced to reshuffle his deck, with five players making their first starts of the season. It looks a particularly daunting task for the reshaped midfield (Munster’s third in six games) given they’re up against the high quality and telepathic Robbie Henshaw-Garry Ringrose axis.

Leo Cullen has spoken of this game, with another huge crowd witnessing the best supported non-Test fixture in global rugby over the last two decades, as a cause for celebration of Irish provincial rugby.

Yet, ironically, it would be all the better in that regard if Munster prove to be a good deal more competitive than the odds suggest.

LEINSTER: Ciarán Frawley; Jimmy O’Brien, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Jamie Osborne; Johnny Sexton (capt), Luke McGrath; Cian Healy, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Jason Jenkins, James Ryan; Max Deegan, Scott Penny, Caelan Doris.

Replacements: John McKee, Andrew Porter, Michael Ala’alatoa, Ross Molony, Jack Conan, Nick McCarthy, Ross Byrne, Rob Russell.

Munster: Jack Crowley; Shane Daly, Dan Goggin, Rory Scannell, Liam Coombes; Joey Carbery, Conor Murray; Jeremy Loughman, Diarmuid Barron, Keynan Knox; Jean Kleyn, Tom Ahern; Jack O’Donoghue (capt), John Hodnett, Gavin Coombes.

Replacements: Scott Buckley, Dave Kilcoyne, James French, Jack O’Sullivan, Ruadhan Quinn, Paddy Patterson, Ben Healy, Patrick Campbell.

Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU).

Forecast: Leinster to win.