New Zealand v Ireland: Under the roof and cornered but opportunity remains for biggest one-off win ever

• New Zealand v Ireland, second Test
• Venue: Forsyth Bar Stadium, Dunedin
• Kick-off: Saturday, 7.05pm local time/8/05am Irish time
• On TV: Live on Sky Sports

Under the roof, and cornered too. Ireland face the point of no return on their daunting tour of New Zealand in the southernmost Test city in the world knowing they have to record a first away win over the All Blacks in 14 attempts if they are to keep the series alive. That’s all.

The home side are expected to improve after dusting off the cobwebs pretty impressively last week in Eden Park, while Ireland simply have to improve their set-piece, be more accurate in possession, make more first-up tackles and hope they enjoy both more favourable bounces of the ball and officiating. Again, that’s all then.

The two squads are scarcely three minutes apart door-to-door in downtown Dunedin, where the tumbleweed streets in midweek give little indication of the invasion to come with the 28,500 attendance and around the Octagon before and after the match.

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Whether the snow materialises or not, the enclosed Forsyth Bar Stadium will protect the players and the match from the elements and should make for a match of high tempo between two ambitiously attack-minded sides.

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Ireland have played here once before, when Cian Healy, Conor Murray and Keith Earls (who makes way for Mack Hansen in Ireland’s once change to their starting XV) started in their 36-6 World Cup pool win over Italy in 2011, as did Paul O’Connell, with Johnny Sexton also kicking a couple of conversions as a replacement.

Many of this team are also familiar with the Principality Stadium, but there’s no doubt that the home are more acquainted with this venue.

Only two of the All Blacks match day 23 play for the Highlanders, namely Aaron Smith and replacement scrumhalf Folau Fakatava, a potential debutant off the bench, but of course all the others are familiar with the stadium.

Ireland came quite close to a historic breakthrough on their two previous visits to the old Carisbrook, where the All Blacks lost three times in the Noughties, when losing 24-21 in 1992 and 15-6 in 2002, but while it’s no Eden Park, the All Blacks have rather taken a liking to the Forsyth Bar Stadium.

In their seven previous Tests here, they have beaten South Africa, Australia (twice), England, Wales, France and Fiji, averaging nearly 40 points per game.

Even when rusty last week, the All Blacks retained their customary capacity to go into overdrive and strike ruthlessly with those four tries in the second quarter, including a three-try salvo in nine minutes. In Beauden Barrett they possess the Dan Carter of the modern game, a player who seems to see everything a second or two before anyone else on the pitch.

It is a measure of the All Blacks’ intent to seal the series here and now that Ian Foster has made only once enforced change to his starting line-up, while also strengthening their replacements, notably with Will ‘Air’ Jordan to spring from the bench and add to their bundles of X factor.

That said, Andy Farrell has done similarly by recalling Mack Hansen, albeit for his first game since the end of April, and wants “more of what he’s done before but obviously he’s more experienced now, isn’t he? We were sad to miss him in the first Test because he’d had a break with Connacht, not being in it at the back end of the season.

“He’d trained hard, got himself fit and came in learning the lessons that he’d done from previous camps that we had before and he looked sharp and ready to go. Obviously Covid hit and it stalled that for him but he started his training week off very well again and it reassures us that he’s ready to go.”

However, no less than the All Blacks, it is reasonable to expect that Ireland will improve in the aforementioned areas as well on the back of last week.

“Well, the errors are plain and obvious to see really. Every game starts with set-piece and making sure that we’re attacking that. We’re not trying to get a level playing field, we’re trying to attack that. I’m sure they’re 100 per cent the same.

“Disruption in that area caused a little bit of problems and then we got a little bit of clarity as far as the breakdown is concerned so we hope that it’s going to be a good contest this week,” said Farrell, although referee Jaco Peyper gave the All Blacks’ all manner of scope for retribution on their revenge mission to Dublin in November 2016.

The real evidence of lessons being learned is how Ireland retain their composure through the difficult times, and in this Jamison Gibson-Park will not repeat the quick tap, skewed box kick and dart off a defensive lineout which led to the All Blacks’ killer third try by Quinn Tupaea.

“It’s something that we’re working hard on, especially with Garry Keegan,” said Farrell in reference to Ireland’s performance coach. “I honestly think that the mental side of the game is where we can make the most improvement because the occasion is a big one within in itself. The opposition’s standard of the game is obviously of a very high quality and you have to get your emotional level to be able to survive, never mind attack the game.”

But, while being notably more competitive and in the game longer is one thing, a victory would still probably constitute Ireland’s biggest one-off win of all time.

NEW ZEALAND: Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes); Sevu Reece (Crusaders, Tasman), Reiko Ioane (Blues), Quinn Tupaea (Chiefs), Leicester Fainga’anuku (Crusaders); Beauden Barrett (Blues), Aaron Smith (Highlanders); George Bower (Crusaders), Codie Taylor (Crusaders)), Ofa Tu’ungafasi (Blues), Brodie Retallick (Chiefs), Scott Barrett (Crusaders), Dalton Papalii (Blues), Sam Cane (Chiefs, capt), Ardie Savea (Hurricanes).

Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho (Chiefs), Aidan Ross (Chiefs), Angus Ta’avao (Chiefs), Patrick Tupulotu (Blues), Pita Gus Sowakula (Chiefs), Folau Fakatava (Highlanders), Richie Mo’unga (Crusaders), Will Jordan (Crusaders).

IRELAND: Hugo Keenan; Mack Hansen, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, James Lowe; Johnny Sexton (capt), Jamison Gibson Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne; Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.

Replacements: Rob Herring, Finlay Bealham, Cian Healy, Kieran Treadwell, Jack Conan, Conor Murray, Joey Carbery, Bundee Aki.

Referee: Jaco Peyper (SARU)

Head-to-head: Played 34, New Zealand 30 wins, 1 draw, Ireland 3 wins.

Last five meetings: (2016) Ireland 9 New Zealand 21 (Dublin). (2018) Ireland 16 New Zealand 9 (Dublin). (2019) New Zealand 46 Ireland 14 (RWC q/f, Tokyo). (2021) Ireland 29 New Zealand 20. (2022) New Zealand 42 Ireland 19.

Forecast: New Zealand to win.