Raiders to find it too hot in dragon's lair

It could hardly be tougher. To maintain hopes of reaching the knockout stages, Ulster must beat the hosts at Cardiff Arms Park, something only Toulouse and Harlequins have achieved in the Welsh team's last 15 home matches in the European Cup. And the full-strength Cardiff side also have the carrot of a fifth quarter-final in five attempts dangling before them tonight.

Curiously, Cardiff's winning margins at home to Irish opposition have been 40, 30 and 20 points in that order, but a 10-point defeat will be no good to Ulster. Coach Harry Williams admits that it's win-or-bust time "and realistically it's going to take our best performance of the season so far."

Putting that into context, Williams says: "We'll need the style of performance we showed in the first game against Cardiff (Ulster won 32-23) and the inner resolve in coming from 14 points down to draw with Toulouse in Toulouse."

Richie Weir's neck injury rules him out, and Allen Clarke will be at hooker ahead of Paul Shields, nursing a back strain, while at full back there's a recall for the relatively inactive Stanley McDowell, who has had two half games as sub for Ballymena this season. It will be his first European game since the final two seasons ago. Mark Blair and Clem Boyd have been preferred to Paddy Johns and Simon Best.

On a number of occasions this season Cardiff haven't played particularly well but have eked out a win - perhaps not a surprise, with such a cosmopolitan array of experienced internationals in decision making positions, such as Neil Jenkins, Pieter Muller, Robert Howley and Emyr "the Bull" Lewis.

Hence, Cardiff have won 10 of their last 12 games and have a whiff of vengeance in their nostrils as well. Ulster have been very quiet lately, which is usually when they're at their most dangerous. You can't help but think that the wily Williams has been engineering a big performance tonight, but, alas, the greater likelihood of a valedictory win is probably next Friday.

Cardiff: R Williams; N Walne, J Robinson, P Muller, G Thomas; N Jenkins, R Howley (capt); S John, J Humphreys, D Young, C Quinnell, J Tait, W Fyvie, E Lewis, M Williams. Replacements: C Morgan, M Rayer, R Powell, AN Other, K Fourie, M Voyle, O Williams

Ulster: S McDowell; J Topping, R Constable, J Bell, T Howe; D Humphreys (capt), B Free; J Fitzpatrick, A Clarke, C Boyd, M Blair, G Longwell, R Nelson, T McWhirter, A Ward. Replacements: S Best, P Shields, P Johns, D Topping, S Bell, N Malone, S Coulter.

Referee: S Lander (England).

Past meetings: ('95/96) Cardiff 46 Ulster 6; (2000/01) Ulster 32 Cardiff 23.

European Cup formguide: Cardiff - 23-32 v Ulster (a); 26-17 v Toulouse (h); 32-23 v Saracens (a); 24-14 v Saracens (h). Ulster - 32-23 v Cardiff (h); 25-55 v Saracens (a); 35-35 v Toulouse (a); 25-29 v Toulouse (h).

Leading points scorers: Cardiff - Neil Jenkins 75. Ulster - David Humphreys 77.

Leading try scorers: Cardiff - Jenkins 2. Ulster - Tyrone Howe 2.

Odds (Paddy Power): 1/5 Cardiff, 20/1 Draw, 7/2 Ulster. Handicap betting (Evens Ulster + 12pts) 10/11 Cardiff, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Ulster.

Forecast: Cardiff to win.