Numbers game ensures strong Irish challenge for Grand National glory

Scotland’s Corach Rambler will need more Braveheart defiance to overcome massive numerical superiority from Ireland in Saturday’s Randox Aintree Grand National.

A year ago, the Lucinda Russell-trained star beat the numbers in the world’s most famous steeplechase when a then record 26 of the 39 runners were based in Ireland.

Even with a reduced maximum field of 34 for safety purposes, the numbers shape like being in Ireland’s favour even more heavily now as only half a dozen British-trained entries are currently guaranteed a run in the National after Monday’s latest acceptance stage.

Topweight Conflated heads a nine-strong Gordon Elliott squad currently in the top 34, one more than Willie Mullins. The 2022 winner Noble Yeats also figures as do last year’s runner-up Vanillier and Henry de Bromhead’s 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo.

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It is another overwhelming show of Irish strength although top of the betting lists remains Corach Rambler, who will try to emulate Tiger Roll and Red Rum as a back-to-back National winner. The defending champion finished third to Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup on his last start.

The final field won’t be known until Thursday and Conflated could be ruled out before then as he holds other Aintree entries in Thursday’s Bowl and the following day’s Melling Chase.

Computing the weights, as well as trying to anticipate who may be ruled in or out due to forecast testing ground conditions, will tie up a lot of attention this week, although one sure thing is how the overall arithmetic reflects prevailing Irish dominance in National Hunt racing.

Corach Rambler is a 9-2 favourite with some firms, but the rest of the market is dominated by Irish hopes. Mullins’s I Am Maximus is next best on 7-1 with his stable companion Meetingofthewaters among those also prominent.

The only other prominent cross-channel hope in the ante-post mix is Wales’s Kitty Light although he could find himself in a random ballot on Thursday to make the final 34. Kirkland in 1905 remains the only National winner trained in Wales.

Many Clouds all of nine years ago was the last National winner trained in England. One For Arthur in 2017 was also trained by Lucinda Russell in Scotland.

An unsettled weather outlook for Liverpool will have many sets of connections waiting on likely ground conditions, including Michael O’Leary’s Gigginstown Stud team.

It has a handful of horses in the top 34 including Conflated and Delta Work who was third to Noble Yeats two years ago. The Ryanair boss is a triple-National winner with Tiger Roll and Rule The World in 2016.

Asked if the Gigginstown quintet could take their chance, Eddie O’Leary said on Monday: “I would think at the moment yes, maybe Conflated might not, we’ll see how heavy the ground is going to be. If it’s very heavy, he might come out to go in the Bowl or even the Melling.

“Would we chance him [in the National] over that trip on good ground yes: would we chance him over that trip on heavy ground, probably no. We’ll see what Gordon thinks.

“Coko Beach likes soft ground, but he mightn’t like what the handicapper’s done to him. He’s a lovely old horse, but he’s run it twice and failed to get home twice.

“We’ll obviously give him a bit more of a chance this year, rather than trying to make the running with him, but he got a big hike for winning the Troytown and off that weight (11.7) it’s hard to fancy him. Conflated has to give him 5lb and Conflated would carry him.”

O’Leary added: “I’d say of ours Delta Work would be the one. He’s a good horse and he’ll love the ground. It was a pity he didn’t get to run in Cheltenham after they called the cross country off as horses were trained for that to come forward for the National. But we are where we are now.”

John McConnell is set to rely on the Coral Gold Cup runner Mahler Mission who hasn’t been seen in action since his gallant effort at Newbury when he lost his front shoes during the race.

Saturday’s main support event to the National will be the three-mile Liverpool Hurdle and Gordon Elliott has kept open the option of running his Cheltenham Stayers champion Teahupoo.

Stable companion Sire Du Berlais, who pulled off the Cheltenham-Aintree double last year is also among the 20 left in the race on Monday. Flooring Porter, runner up to Tehaupoo at Cheltenham, and twice placed in the Liverpool Hurdle, is also a potential starter.

Closer to home, the prevailing dreadful weather conditions continue to impact Ireland’s racing programme with Saturday’s scheduled flat fixture for Bellewstown called off five days in advance.

Clerk of the course Lorcan Wyer reported: “Following a sustained period of unsettled weather and heavy rainfall as well as the possibility of a further 25mm of rain up to and including Wednesday, the Flat fixture at Bellewstown on Saturday has been cancelled.

“Ahead of Sunday’s National Hunt fixture, parts of the track are currently unfit for racing. Where raceable, the ground is soft to heavy, heavy in places.

“After this current band of rain into Wednesday, the forecast appears to become more settled, and we will continue to monitor the situation in respect of Sunday and issue further updates throughout the week.”

Due to the spate of recent cancellations, Horse Racing Ireland has announced two additional fixtures including a meeting at Dundalk this Saturday evening. HRI has also put in an extra National Hunt card at Naas next Tuesday.

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