Ultimate ‘could be’ horses Ballyburn and Fact To File put huge reputations to the test

That race fans are suckers for potential rather than the proven article is stamped all over Cheltenham ’s day two festival action.

If the cross-country track passes an 8.0 morning inspection, Delta Work will try to pull off a feat beyond even his old sparring partner Tiger Roll and win the marathon test three times in a row.

Henry de Bromhead’s Maskada will defend the Grand Annual title she won so impressively last year, and Langer Dan has navigated his way back to the Coral Cup on the same handicap mark he won it off in 2023.

However, for many, Wednesday’s programme won’t be about established durability, or the Champion Chase test, but appearances by a pair of potential Willie Mullins superstars in the first two races.

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Speculation about which option Mullins would wind up choosing for Ballyburn dominated much of the festival build-up and he ultimately pitches up in the newly-titled Gallagher Novices Hurdle.

Just 40 minutes later and Fact To File, a horse Mullins is already talking about in terms of the 2025 Gold Cup, puts his own massive reputation on the line in the Brown Advisory Novice Chase.

The latter has raced just six times in his career, once more than Ballyburn, and yet the impression each has quickly made will leave a major sense of anticlimax should both not win in style.

It is a perennial racing theme that little gets the public more excited than a ‘could be’ horse rather than any ‘been there, done that’ alternative.

On the flat, all kinds of hopes get invested in precocious two-year-olds that mostly fizzle out. Novice hurdlers and chasers are jumping’s equivalent and, no matter how many times experience points out how futile it can be, the hype machine annually cranks into gear around Cheltenham.

It has quickly hit top-speed around Ballyburn, who goes down a well-worn path into Wednesday’s opener.

A race with a history of throwing up real-deal stars such as Istabraq and Hardy Eustace also has a track record of comparative morning glories.

That might be harsh on a horse like Envoi Allen (2020) whose considerable CV can never live up to the ridiculous expectations pinned to him. But Samcro emerged from this race in 2018 with predictions for greatness that never came close to being fulfilled. Neither have last year’s winner Impaire Et Passe or Bob Olinger (2021) delivered on what looked to be their immense promise.

What they all managed, however, was to win this race. That four of Ballyburn’s opposition are stable companions hardly encourages hopes of any definitive verdict on his overall merit – even if his Grade One form looks cast-iron after Slade Steel’s Supreme success – but that’s for another day.

Fact To File, likewise, has a single Grade One under his belt, and that in a match with no less than Gaelic Warrior at Leopardstown last month. If time experts have been all over that performance, much of Fact To File’s towering reputation is still down to Mullins not bothering to disguise his long-term hopes for the horse.

Just like the first true superstar through his hands, Florida Pearl, Mullins has ignored hurdling completely and pitched Fact To File into doing what he appears made to do over fences.

An opponent such as Stay Away Fay can boast more considerable achievement and on testing conditions may have the stamina to give the Irish tyro a real test. But that’s likely to be overlooked in most betting considerations.

Cheltenham’s ultimate first test of potential is the Weatherbys Champion Bumper where once again Mullins looks dominant. With nine runners he is pursuing a 13th win in the race and has the quantity and quality angles covered.

Patrick Mullins has opted for Jasmin de Vaux who could hardly have won his racecourse debut more easily at Naas. The champion amateur gets first pick in the bumper, although it’s worth recalling how he has been on board just one of his father’s last five winners of the race.

Paul Townend is on Cantico while Jack Kennedy has opted for Jalon d’Ouodairies from Gordon Elliott’s highly-rated trio. Elliott saddled Fayonagh to win in 2017, one of just three mares to score in the last two decades, but there could be betting value in sticking with Jody Townend’s mount Fleur Au Fusil this time.

Owned by well-known singer Paddy Reilly, she did an awful lot wrong in a Grade Two at the Dublin Racing Festival but still managed to win. Not surprisingly she has a first-time hood now and a lack of pace shouldn’t be an issue in this contest.

Delta Work & Co could be forced to wait until Friday to contest the Cross-Country if the inside track fails to pass a morning inspection. Cheltenham has been working with the British Horseracing Authority on a contingency plan to run the marathon contest as a first race on Friday if required. If it goes ahead, Delta Work will surely be happier splashing around than Minella Indo.

Brian O’Connor’s Cheltenham tips – Day 2

1.30: Ballyburn; 2.10: Fact To File; 2.50: Doddiethegreat; 3.30: El Fabiolo; 4.10: Delta Work; 4.50: Maskada (nap); 5.30: Fleur Au Fusil

Nap and double: Maskada & Fleur Au Fusil

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