Race for Cup glory more even than ever

"HMM, very interesting," as the helmeted German used to say on Rowan and Martin's laugh-in, before adding to the rider "but stupid." It's hard to tell whether that principle should be applied to the rugby weekend that has just been.

Although some results went against prediction, most were proved correct and at the end of it there were reasons aplenty to be optimistic about the shape and substance of Ireland's fourth World Cup squad - the management having achieved the dual trick of making it both more experienced and younger than the squad in 1995.

The last round of the phoney war, featuring seven Tests around the globe on Saturday, began with the most impressive performance of the lot as the Wallabies trounced the All Blacks by 287 in front of a world record attendance of 107,000 at Sydney's Olympic Stadium. Defensively awesome, the Wallabies swarmed all over the All Blacks, regularly making the gainline and getting far greater numbers to rucks, even if it may have required the goalkicking of Matt Burke to put the required gloss on the scoreline.

Given Australia thus ended their domestic season unbeaten at home - with wins over England, South Africa and New Zealand - it also shows up Ireland's second Test performance in Perth in a pretty good light. Granted, there was no Burke (a massive improvement on Chris Latham) or Ben Tune that day, and there were also four changes in the tight five while out-half Rod Kafer was light years better than Nathan Spooner. Assuredly too, Australia were as focussed on Saturday as they will be when they renew hostilities with Ireland in their pool meeting. Nonetheless, Ireland may well be tempted to rest most of their first-choice side against the Wallabies as it falls in between matches against the USA and Romania which Ireland will be targeting to win. The concession of a century of points to England a week ago probably said more about Clive Woodward's burgeoning team than it did the USA (for they are no Holland) but the USA's 5324 defeat to a second-string Welsh XV at Cardiff yesterday must have demoralised the Americans further.

As for Romania, with virtually the same backline and albeit only two of the pack which extended Ireland to a 53-35 win last November, they hardly showed any of their ability in losing by 60-19 to Scotland at Hampden Park on Saturday evening. And this was their first outing since losing by 62-8 to France in early June.

Presuming form pans out in Pool E, then the options facing Australia and Ireland in the knockout stages are a quarter-final in Cardiff, most probably against Wales, for the group winners, or a play-off against the best third placed side in Lens followed by a quarter-final in Dublin four days later - most probably against France.

Wales away or France at home? It's decidedly debatable as to whether the group winners have the more favourable route, as emphasised by Wales's 34-23 win over France in Cardiff.

This made it eight wins in a row for Wales and six defeats in eight matches for France (alleviated only by victories over Romania and Western Samoa), sequences kick-started by Wales's seismic 34-33 win in Paris in March.

The Welsh seem to have gone back into their shell, throwing everything to lock Chris Wyatt and playing mostly off the Quinnell brothers in playing for field-goal position. Cue to Neil Jenkins.

Jenkins became the third player this year to kick a record nine penalties in a Test (with defences now stronger and referees stricter at the breakdown, this may well be the way of the World Cup too) and the wonder was why he didn't kick all 11 afforded to Wales by the ill-disciplined French.

FRANCE are in such disarray after last season's Five Nations free fall and a kamikaze summer tour to Western Samoa, Tonga and New Zealand, obviously designed by a masochist, that they could even be vulnerable to the ultra-physical Canadians in their group.

But, of course, France are probably the one side who could suddenly spring to life at the drop of a cravat, and they'll most likely come to Dublin with wins over Canada, Namibia and Fiji in their pool play.

What's more, were Ireland opposing them France would have the mental fillip of knowing they have beaten their quarter-final opponents at the same stage four years before, amid a run of 14 consecutive wins over Ireland, with their last defeat in Dublin coming 16 years ago. Wales, by comparison though, are on what might be called a "Millenium Momentum". There were 65,000 at Cardiff's spanking new stadium, more than double the combined attendances at Twickenham, Lansdowne Road and Hampden Park. Imagine what they would be like in the quarter-finals with 11 straight wins behind them and an increased and deafening capacity of 72,000 acting as their 16th man? Wales are genuine contenders.

As Welsh coach Graham Henry fears, it could be that his side's winning sequence has become a bit of a millstone just now. He cited his native All Blacks as an example and John Hart admitted that the summary ending of their five-game winning run will give them "a huge wake-up call".

Even when running up big scores at home to South Africa and Australia, the All Blacks weren't particularly creative; relying largely on the boot of Andrew Mehrtens, both out of the hand and off the ground; save for Christian Cullen's off-the-cuff pace and creativity, and Jonah Lomu's impact off the bench.

South Africa, having over-extended themselves last year in pursuit of that Test-winning record, have paid the price with a truckload of injuries, the unsurprising demise of Gary Teichmann and a loss of form. But they have regrouped, and many of the old faces are back. The likes of Japan, Fiji and Argentina seem to be bringing their best World Cup sides yet to the rugby fest, though not the Italians. Their 5032 defeat to Fiji extended their losing run to eight; conceding 324 points in their last five games.

Meanwhile you write off the Scots at your peril, Ireland continue to progress and England, with Lawrence Dallaglio returning to the backrow, Phil Vickery adding an abrasive edge to the frontrow and Will Greenwood giving real penetration to inside centre, are the most serious European contenders of the lot. This looks like being the most competitive World Cup yet. The force remains with the Southern Hemisphere, but the northern lot have moved closer, with Ireland now widely acknowledged to be amongst them.

Why, as The Guardian noted yesterday: "Britain's teams congratulated themselves on a quartet (sic) of victories over the weekend."