Plenty of hope for Gatland's men in first Test

The current definition of an Irish optimist hereabouts is someone who is willing to back Ireland against Australia in Ballymore, Brisbane today (kick-off 8 p.m., 11 a.m. Irish time) in the first Test - each-way.

With David Campese predicting a 40 point drubbing for the Irish, and Channel 7's ad showing 15 tap-dancing Irish-jerseyed men being knocked over by a giant Wallaby ball, this is being billed in some quarters as the proverbial leprechauns to the slaughter.

At face value, it looks a lopsided enough contest alright. Ireland haven't beaten Australia in 20 years. They have just finished fourth in the Five Nations, leaving them at best about eighth or so in the world pecking order, or around mid-way in an unofficial second tier. Australia, by comparison, last summer beat the All Blacks by three tests to nil to regain the Bledisloe Cup and the only side to beat them were South Africa. They are possibly entitled to be ranked second.

Certainly, if their performance against New South Wales is anything to go by there would seem little point in Ireland even turning up. But there is of course.

Despite the loss to an under-strength New South Wales, the reaction of the Irish squad to the result may be positive, especially given a kick in the rear in squad meetings and training sessions.

Warren Gatland, the Irish management and some of the leading players have been striving to ensure there is no reversion to the bad old ways, and almost a semi-acceptance of their fate once a tour turns against them.

Partly to that end, to state the blindingly obvious, Ireland need to start well. It is something they have failed to do in their two tour games to date, but it is something they have usually done when putting in their big performances under the current reign. This would mean a nice solid start, with reliable set-pieces, a return to the old in-your-face aggressive defence around the fringes and in midfield, and, most of all, no mistakes. Even a relatively quiet start, with a penalty or so apiece, would give Ireland encouragement to take the game to Australia.

Given this is Australia's first Test of the season, if there is a good time to play them, now is probably it.

While Ireland have three debutants in the pack, the Wallabies themselves will be without key players such as full back Matt Burke, out-half Stephen Larkham and inspirational lock and captain John Eales. Thus, they have new combinations in the front-row, second-row and at half-back.

About 80 kilometres apart on Thursday, both their coach Rod McQueen and their new captain David Wilson were at pains to stress these new combinations. Hence, both spoke of making sure they "get the basics right".

Whether or not this is a pre-planned attempt to pull the wool over Irish eyes remains to be seen, but the signs are that the Wallabies will not be too expansive; all the more so as Ballymore is expected to be soft underfoot despite two days of drying weather.

Judging by McQueen's riposte to Campese, the Wallabies are likely to ignore his advice and, initially at any rate, seek to beat Ireland up in the channels by driving close-in off line-outs, scrums and rucks, or else up the middle through their big midfield runners.

Admittedly, if they do establish a platform then their three-quarters are likely to be launched then, and herein lies the major worry. You compare the proven combination of Ben Tune, Daniel Herbert, Tim Horan and Joe Roff (possibly the best in the world) against a willing and brave winger, a gifted but 20-year-old debutant, a hardy and improving (if limited) inside centre and a relatively unproven left-winger, and you can only deduce that herein lies potentially the biggest class divide of the contest.

If Tune and especially Roff, along with full back Chis Latham, start ghosting through the middle at regular intervals, especially after passages of sustained continuity, then despite all the bravery in the world, Ireland are bound to crack on occasions.

Added to which, irreverent new arrival though he is, Tom Tierney is playing against a world-class scrum-half in George Gregan, who made his famous Bledisloe Cupwining tackle on Jeff Wilson all of five years ago. Compared to Tierney, think of all the caps and experience Gregan has garnered since then.

However, the Irish tight five is comparatively settled, and the back-row features three of the quartet who were also regularly used throughout the Five Nations. If Gatland has publicly condemned some of his big name forwards, one deduces that big games are commanded of them today. Given Ireland's concession of 17 line-outs to 12 last week, they also need to concede less throw-ins.

If Keith Wood, Paul Wallace and Jeremy Davidson (and here you'd be hopeful) all produce big games, and Paddy Johns and Victor Costello produce a big 50 minutes or so each, then provided the tackles are made aggressively, Ireland should be very competitive up front.

Furthermore, they are adding new strings to their bow all the time, especially with the advent of Brian O'Driscoll. Though a more structured game may be called for (and Costello's elevation instead of the injured Trevor Brennan may even be a blessing in disguise) it is still conceivable that the tourists will be more expansive than the hosts, despite Australia's reputation for innovative rugby.

Were that to come to pass, and Ireland go down by a score or two, then it would constitute a good day at the office.

Australia: C Latham (Queensland); B Tune Queensland), D Herbert (Queensland), T Horan (Queensland), J Roff (ACT); N Spooner (Queensland), G Gregan (ACT); Dan Crowley (Queensland), J Paul (ACT), P Noriega (ACT), T Bowman (New South Wales), D Giffin (ACT), M Cockbain (Queensland), T Kefu (Queensland), D Wilson (Queensland, capt). Replace- ments: C Whitaker (New South Wales), N Grey (New South Wales), J Little (Queensland), T Strauss (New South Wales), J Wil- liams (ACT), A Blades (New South Wales), P Kearns (New South Wales).

Ireland: C O'Shea (London Irish); J Bishop (London Irish), B O'Driscoll (Blackrock College), K Maggs (Bath), M Mostyn (Buccaneers); D Humprheys (Dungannon), T Tierney (Garryowen); P Clohessy (Young Munster), K Wood (Harlequins), P Wallace (Saracens), P Johns (Dungannon), J Davidson (Castres), D O'Cuinneagain (unattached, capt), V Costello (St Mary's College), A Ward (Ballynahinch). Replacements: C Scally (Blackrock), E Elwood (Galwegians), J Bell (Dungannon), D Corkery (Cork Constitution), M O'Kelly (St Mary's College), R Corrigan (Lansdowne), R Nesdale (Newcastle).

Referee: A Watson (South Africa).