Opportunity knocks

Here we go again. Another Five Nations Championship, and hope springs eternal once more. It was once said that "the place where optimism most flourishes is the lunatic asylum". In which case you'd wonder why the psychiatrists don't just set up shop in Lansdowne Road for the annual event when we all get our day passes.

As the shrink once said of Basil Fawlty, "there's enough material here for a weekend conference". Ireland hasn't won its opening match for a decade and hasn't finished higher than fourth in the championship in that time. The 1990s have been Ireland's worst decade, and the second worst decade of results by any country, eclipsed only by the French between 1910 and 1920. You'd think we'd have copped on. Yet, each year we still travel in hope and this year seemingly, more than ever. Somehow, this year the optimism really does seem to make sense.

Rarely can one recall such a feel-good factor permeating Irish rugby. It's on a discernible roll. Ulster have set it rolling most obviously, but the other provinces have done their bit as the IRFU finally put the second-tier's professional structures in place. Even London Irish have caught the bug. So many Irish players seem to be in good form and winning form.

Admittedly, it will be hard for Warren Gatland, the management and the players to recreate the mood of Paris last year when Ireland pushed France all the way in an 18-16 defeat. Back then, new coach Gatland concentrated on the basics and some clever mind games.

Between that day in the Stade de France and the sequence of French defeats on Irish soil in the European Cup this season, the French have been forewarned. The cockerel will hardly be overcocky.

However, psychological benefits have undoubtedly accrued to Ireland. Much of the aura of invincibility about the French - and with it Ireland's inherent inferiority complex - has surely been removed in the last 12 months.

In Gatland's positive and settled environment, you sense this Irish team believes in itself. The foundations of sound setpieces and solid defence are well enshrined. The house is taking shape and looks less likely to be blown down. Where before Ireland would throw the kitchen sink at the French and not have enough energy in the last quarter, now, at last, Ireland appear to be competing against France on an equal professional footing. The players have the conditioning to compete for 80 minutes.

The concern, most obviously, is where the scores are going to come from. This week, Gatland has worked on launching runners with new ploys, which must in part be designed to avail of Conor O'Shea's outstanding London Irish form. He and Justin Bishop are on a roll, so too the Saracens pair up front and, of course, the Ulster duo in the backs.

Jonathan Bell and Kevin Maggs can surely do to Franck Comba and Richard Dourthe (an unexceptional midfield by French standards) what Bell and Jan Cunningham did to Dourthe and Cliff Mytton in the European Cup semi-final.

The gifted David Humphreys is an altogether more assured presence now than in the past and his vision and hands can add another dimension to Ireland's running game. As for his place-kicking, he landed seven out of eight in two games for Ireland last season and 15 out of 19 on his tour of South Africa, while he's as sweet a drop goal kicker as there is around. Besides, Thomas Castaignede is even less proven as an international place-kicker.

One of the concerns, in the absence of Andy Ward especially and Eric Elwood, is the defence of that channel the French attack so well either off line-outs, scrums or ruck, through forward runners or when Castaignede applies the turbo charge. Another is the incursions or counter-attacking of a beefed up Emile N'Tamack, widely perceived in the Irish camp as the main danger in his second coming as a converted full back. Humphreys' aerial stuff - and the sooner the Garryowens go up the better - will need to be on the money again.

Conor McGuinness, in relatively unexceptional form, will have to invoke his spirited performance of Paris '98.

Peter Clohessy is one of seven Irish players coming from what is, it has to be said, a substandard AIL. Though playing the best rugby of his life, this is the biggest test of his status as a loose-head prop at the very top level. The scrums may make the old ground tremor today, but Ireland have identified this area noticeably in practice and with four Lions in their ranks, should at least cope.

There's a palpable foreboding surrounding the French camp, whatever about within it. They had an undistinguished autumn against Australia and Argentina, but then again the last time they had a good autumn was in the Ice Age.

It's true that a plethora of injuries have ensured truncated seasons for many of their players. It's true their poorly restructured French championship has meant most of their leading players haven't got into top gear yet.

The inclination, though, is to take the doubts about the French with a pinch of salt. Make that a kilo.

After all, would an understrength Ireland have put 49 points on Italy (albeit an Azurri mourning the death of Ivan Francescato) in Dublin, much less Genoa?

France have been preparing for two weeks and they're the team with the obvious try-scoring potential, especially from broken play. They're the team which may not have to work as hard for its scores. Ireland could well have a lot of this game and still lose it.

Although there has been surprisingly little hype about their chance of history, France are also the ones going for three Grand Slams on the spin, whereas Ireland have had three wooden spoons in a row.

So France are entitled to start as favourites. As Keith Wood says, it will need Ireland to do almost everything right, and then get the bounce of the ball. But Ireland have a real chance this time, probably better than 9 to 4. There's a mood in the air and at the risk of encouraging the men in white coats, it is catching.