Munster will need all their nous to make clean escape

POOL ONE: NORTHAMPTON can become the first club to reach the quarters by beating Edinburgh at home on the penultimate Friday, and can then target a home quarter-final on the final Saturday by winning in Castres.

That will partly hinge on Castres’ interest, which may have been eroded in Cardiff in round five, and makes their decision to rest several front-liners in Edinburgh behind closed doors (eh, what’s new?) last Monday all the more puzzling. Well, it would if they weren’t French.

POOL TWO

A WIN for Clermont the night before will mean Leinster can qualify on the penultimate Saturday by beating Saracens. Unless Racing beat Clermont with a bonus point, victory at home to Sarries with a bonus point would also ensure Leinster progress. But they will be eyeing up a home quarter now, although to that end they will probably need to win in Paris on the final Friday as well. Clermont would probably need a couple of bonus point wins to have any chance, though that looks unlikely.

POOL THREE

A TAUT, three-way struggle to the wire. Munster (third favourites in the group) have never been in a tighter squeeze in the last dozen years and the gnarled Euro veterans must beat Toulon away and London Irish at home with a bonus point to ensure first place and a probable away quarter-final. They’d chew your arm off now for that. Toulon are best placed, but the Ospreys will hope Toulon beat Munster to set up a probable winner-takes-all at the Liberty on the final Saturday.

POOL FOUR

AS BIARRITZ recorded a bonus point win in the first meeting, Ulster need to beat the Basques by more than seven points to move above them, and then record a bonus point win away to Aironi to ensure they top the pool and thus advance for the first time in 11 years. Finishing second on 22 points could be enough to secure one of the best two runners-up slots, albeit possibly with an anxious wait the next day, while defeat to Biarritz with a maximum 19 points to aim for might not suffice.

POOL FIVE

ALL WOULD seem to hinge on an Anglo-Welsh set-to between the Scarlets and Leicester in the valleys at tea-time on the penultimate Saturday, with the winners in pole position, especially the Tigers as they host Treviso on the last Sunday with the final standings in pools one to four already known overnight. The Tigers need two bonus point wins as things stand, however, as Perpignan have the better head-to-head record, though it wouldn’t be unlike the Catalans to foul up on the run-in.

POOL SIX

FOUR-TIME winners Toulouse and double winners Wasps have been handed all the aces in this distinctly underwhelming pool. Presuming Toulouse take care of the Dragons at home in their penultimate game, and Wasps negotiate the trickier task of beating Glasgow away, they could go into their final game in High Wycombe on 22 and 19 or 20 points apiece, and know exactly what’s required in terms of earning a home quarter final or a best runners-up.