Munster likely to miss rallying point

THERE REMAINS the distinct possibility of a second all-Irish final in a couple of weeks’ time, but this evening’s first Pro 12 semi-final undoubtedly represents a sizeable stumbling block. By any stretch of the imagination, the Ospreys have been the most persistent Celtic thorn in Irish sides and while the Lions’ tour soothed some of the bitterness, there’s always been a particular edge to their meetings with Munster.

This is a case of familiarity breeding contempt as well as mutual admiration because in the nine seasons in which the Ospreys have been in operation these two have met each other 24 times. So it was that Keith Earls expressed the view that he was sick of playing the Ospreys, and he was probably expressing what all involved might privately feel.

In truth, many of the familiar old foes will not be squaring up to each other as both sides are going through something of a transition; Munster due to the passage of time, the Ospreys more so to financial constraints.

Yet they remain two of the league’s three heavyweights, each having won the competition three times, each having made the play-offs since their inception two seasons ago and each having been in the top four all season.

For all the impression that Munster have tended to lord things over the Welsh regions, they only lead this overall head-to-head by 13 wins to 11, though in the league the Ospreys have had 10 wins to nine.

What’s more, Munster have managed only three victories in nine visits to the Liberty Stadium. Some of the Ospreys’ galacticos may have moved on (in what has been an attempt to copy the Munster template) but more than any other Celtic team, the Ospreys are the least cowed by their Irish counterparts, having completed a double over both Munster and Leinster this season.

The narrower confines of the Liberty Stadium and the often desultory atmosphere seems to affect Irish sides, all the more so with the Ospreys’ youthful energy, spoiling at the breakdown and, perhaps most of all, their traditional blitz defence which decidedly flirts with the offside line.

Aside from their double over Munster, the Ospreys are in good form, having won their last five league matches, while they’ve only been defeated once at the Liberty Stadium in the tournament this season.

Steve Tandy, under whom the Ospreys have won six of eight matches, has chosen the outstanding and abrasive Samoan Kahn Fotuali’i ahead of young Rhys Webb at scrumhalf. It is a measure of Justin Tipuric’s career graph that the 22-year-old openside will make his 50th Ospreys appearance.

“Munster will be coming to the Liberty with a winning mentality as they always do, wherever they play, whoever the opposition and whatever the game,” said the Ospreys head coach. “They’re a tough bunch, steely edged, with the know-how and experience to win tight games and they won’t be contemplating losing. You can guarantee that much.

“It’s going to be a tough old battle between two teams who know each other very well, two teams who will have to slug it out to get control out there, but it should be a tight, edgy affair as games between the Ospreys and Munster always are. We’ll have our home support behind us and they’ll have an important part to play as well, as we’ll need to make full use of every advantage we can get.”

Munster have managed, again, to put their post-Heineken Cup blues to one side in compiling a three-game unbeaten run since those wounding back-to-back home defeats in league and Europe to Leinster and Ulster. Nevertheless, those wounds are fresher than their pool exit was last season, when Munster manfully regrouped to beat first the Ospreys and then Leinster to clinch the league. Both of those games were, however, at home.

In the midst of their current transition, Munster have become more dependent than ever upon the twin towers of Paul O’Connell and Ronan O’Gara. Were O’Connell playing, Munster would undoubtedly look to have a stronger chance but without him they lack his presence as a leader and rallying point.

Absent since the Ulster defeat five weeks ago, O’Gara returns; but only to the bench. Admittedly Donncha O’Callaghan, who returns for O’Connell, is no novice and they also welcome back Ian Keatley, a late withdrawal last week, and Keith Earls, while Peter O’Mahony’s status as a captain of the future (in a backrow of the future) is fast-forwarded. Nevertheless there is a callow look to them.

Defeat, of course, would mark the end of some distinguished Munster careers, namely Mick O’Driscoll, Lifeimi Mafi, Tomás O’Leary and coach Tony McGahan, and no doubt they will draw some additional motivation from this. Besides, Munster’s sense of gloom needs to be put in perspective. There are only two trophies on offer, yet for the fifth season in the last seven, Munster are seeking silverware. Few countries in Europe can claim that.

Then again, win or lose, this will most likely be a final farewell to his home fans for the legend that is Shane Williams. The prolific, twinkle-toed winger has demonstrated his capacity to seize the moment on countless occasions and a particularly ominous warning for Munster came with Williams’ last Test for Wales, when scoring with his last touch in the game’s last play.

OSPREYS: R Fussell; H Dirksen, A Bishop, A Beck, S Williams; D Biggar, K Fotuaili’i; P James, R Hibbard, A Jones, A Wyn Jones, I Evans, R Jones, J Tipuric, J Bearman. Replacements: S Baldwin, R Bevington, A Jarvis, J King, T Smith, R Webb, M Morgan, T Isaacs.

MUNSTER: F Jones; J Murphy, K Earls, L Mafi, S Zebo; I Keatley, C Murray; W du Preez, M Sherry, B Botha, D O’Callaghan, M O’Driscoll, D Ryan, T O’Donnell, P O’Mahony. Replacements: D Fogarty, D Kilcoyne, S Archer, Dave OCallaghan, P Butler, T OLeary, R OGara, I Dineen.

Referee: Alain Rolland (IRFU).

Betting (Paddy Power): 4/7 Ospreys, 18/1 Draw, 7/5 Munster. Handicap odds (Munster +4pts) 10/11 Ospreys, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Munster.

Forecast: Ospreys to win.