Levelling of playing field heralds new order

There's an edge to this evening's Guinness inteprovincial between Leinster and Connacht which has rarely been there in times past.

Where before Connacht might have been in danger of contracting vertigo, now they come to Donnybrook with their feet on the ground, and with an equal chance of scaling outright leadership.

All of which is evidence of the new order in this most competitive interprovincial series ever, in that there doesn't seem to be one at all.

The bookies, accordingly, appear nonplussed, hence their odds on the championship of 9/4 Ulster, 5/2 Munster and Leinster, and 4/1 Connacht.

There's certainly no formguide to speak of. Munster beat Connacht, who beat Ulster, who beat Leinster, who beat Munster, who, of course, beat Connacht. . . Go figure! If there's a pattern here, it is that there isn't one.

Admittedly, both Connacht and Leinster were comparatively lacking in match practice before the opening round, and it showed. Both benefitted the most from those initial interprovincial ties and with their backs to the wall, revived both their own challenges and the championship itself last week.

Now each comes into this game buoyed by the winning feeling. Both should come on further. On last week's evidence, Connacht will need to make the greater strides, but then again they have more room for improvement. The trick for Leinster will be to play at least as well again.

Last week, not only had they been simmering with discontent over their own tame performance against Ulster, they were also staring down the barrel of an unfulfilled interprovincial defence and, what's more, were facing Munster away.

Insomuch as fear can be a factor, and a powerful one at that, a trip to Munster is as likely to provoke it as anything else. Whether Leinster can be as motivated for a visit of Connacht is another matter. Age-old superiority complexes die hard. Will they be as hungry and as focussed from the kick-off?

True, previous meetings may not count for much in an era when player turnover seems to be greater than ever. Leinster retain eight of the team which won the corresponding fixture a year ago, and Connacht, surprisingly, only six. Nonetheless, tradition heavily points to a home win.

Though Connacht have won the last three meetings in the Sportsground, they've conceded over 100 points on their four visits to Donnybrook in the 1990s, and have never won in five attempts at the venue. Indeed, one has to go back to 1985 for their most recent of only two wins in Dublin, by 9-6 at Lansdowne Road, thanks to three Henry O'Toole penalties against a Leinster team which included Hugo MacNeill, Brendan Mullin, Paul Dean, Phil Orr and Neil Francis.

Granted, Leinster were flattered by their 23-6 winning margin a year ago and psychologically, Connacht ought to be nicely primed. They know what they're about, have a hardened, streetwise edge to them, can last 80 minutes and beyond, and they no longer dip below a base level of performance. Anybody who beats them will have to play well to do so.

Sooner or later, Connacht are going to hit the ground running from the kick-off too. Given the opening quarter usually dictates the trend of a rugby match, even if they bucked that trend with their stirring comeback against Ulster, Connacht cannot afford to go on giving opposing teams a head start - Munster six points, Ulster 12.

If they rectify these sleepy starts, their stickability will make it a hard day at the office even for an in-form Leinster. Furthermore, one presumes, they'll have done their homework on Leinster better than Munster did and tailor their tactics accordingly.

Expect, therefore, Eric Elwood to test John McWeeney and Kevin Nowlan with high balls and angled kicks; something Munster were strangely shy of trying.

Against that, McWeeney comes off his blind-side wing as a close-in target runner mighty effectively and is hard to stop when he gets up a head of steam. On the other wing, Girvan Dempsey is a fine footballer and, as he showed last week, a good finisher. And as Nowlan has shown in both games, he remains peerless at converting a teammate's halfbreak into a try with his pacey support runs onto the ball-carrier's shoulder.

Connacht's 10-12-13 axis has been second to none. Save for one lapse against Munster, they've been well nigh impenetrable, and the burgeoning Mervyn Murphy and Pat Duignan have also shown their potency in both matches.

Though Martin Ridge has stiffened things up and Shane Horgan is confirming his free-running abilities, Leinster don't seem to have quite the same solidity or all-round flair. But it will be fascinating to see how the young number 13 wannabees, Duignan and Shane Horgan, square up.

All in all, while Connacht might have marginally the sounder-looking all-round defence, then again they may have more reason to prove it. Because up front, Leinster may have marginally more going for them.

Connacht's scrum is as strong as any around, and eventually wore down the Ulster eight in this critical phase last week, but Angus McKeen is a disruptive customer, and Leinster's scrum has held up better than Ulster's.

Nor did Connacht's close-in target runners, the notable exception of Jimmy Screene apart, make much of an impression last week. In retaining Ian Dillon as one of two open sides, Connacht seem more inclined to emulate their second-half display against Ulster and attack further out - which again looks their best option.

Leinster don't have an out-and-out open side, but it is their backrow which could again make all the difference. There's none better at racking up the yardage from the base of the scrum or close-in than Victor Costello, and Craig Brownlie's typical Kiwi upper-body strength and footballing ability have given them real impetus at the breakdown, while the, er, focussed Trevor Brennan looks like a man on a mission more than ever now.

There's serious muscle power in that trio, and height as well. With Gabriel Fulcher pretty much guaranteeing middle-of-the-line ball (if not doing much else so far), Leinster also have options further down in Brennan and Costello, which seems two more than Connacht have.

These greater line-out variations and, when one thinks of the way they attacked Munster off mauled and quick number six line-out ball a week ago, could be critical.

A six-point handicap with the bookies is probably about right though. This isn't one of those games to be putting the mortgage on, and it certainly isn't one of those championships.

Connacht: W Ruane; R Southam, P Duignan, M Murphy, A Reddan; E Elwood (capt), D reddan; J Screene, B Mulcahy, M Cahill, J Cullen, J Duffy, S McEntee, B Gavin, I Dillon. Replacements: D Mescal, S Allnutt, N Carolan, B Jackman, J Maher, G Heaslip, J Casserley.

Leinster: K Nowlan; J McWeeney, S Horgan, M Ridge, G Dempsey; A McGowan, D O'Mahony; E Byrne, S Byrne, A McKeen, P Holden, G Fuclcher (capt), T Brennan, V Costello, C Brownlie. Replacements: H Hurley, P Smyth, H Kos, D O'Brien, C Scally, R Murphy, B Carey.

Referee: S Landers (England).