Leinster tries could prove vital

With Munster already having secured a home quarter-final, Leinster just about remain in the hunt to join the Irish provincial champions in the last eight of the European Cup.

Stade Francais' 38-16 win over Leicester on Saturday moves the French side to the top of Pool One, and a victory for the Parisians next Friday evening in Glasgow will ensure them of pole position regardless of whether Leinster win in Leicester next Saturday.

However were Glasgow Caledonians to win, then a Leinster victory at Leicester would ensure them of first place as the only team with eight points, and so put them in the last eight; with a likely away tie.

Even if Stade win on Friday, were Leinster to become the first visiting side to win at Welford Road in over two years they could still squeeze through as one of the two best runners-up.

In that scenario, Leinster would finish runners-up with eight points, and depending on how much they improve their try tally (currently 10), it could be superior to four of the other runners-up. Montferrand, in Pool Five, look like achieving the eight-point benchmark, and already have 13 tries, so it would be imperative for Leinster's chances that Wasps beat Llanelli (who already have eight points) on Friday night.

Already, Munster and Toulouse have 10 points and are assured of top four rankings and with that, home quarter-finals. Victory in Pontypridd next Saturday would probably earn Munster a ranking of two, and with it a home-tie against the team ranked seventh, i.e. the best ranked runners-up. On current standings, that looks like being Llanelli or Montferrand, or possibly even Wasps if Llanelli beat the unbeaten London side by 10 points or more to snatch first place in pool Three.

Alternatively, were Munster to slip up in Pontypridd or be overtaken in the rankings by Wasps, they would be ranked third and would be at home to the sixth ranked club, or lowest ranked pool winners, most probably Stade Francais from Pool One or, at a push, Leinster.