Leinster to finish with a win but miracle not an option

Pool Six/Leicester v Leinster:Michael Cheika and his Leinster charges would have been heartened by the Leicester Tigers starting XV for today's conclusion of Pool Six activities. That is, until they saw the Edinburgh team Andy Robinson intends to field at the Stade Ernest Wallon.

Leinster not only need a four-try victory over the English champions but also need the Scots to beat the three-time European champions on Toulouse's own patch.

The Tigers have left out their captain, Martin Corry, Lewis Moody, Aaron Mauger, Dan Hipkiss and Tom Croft - coach Marcelo Loffreda citing injury to all five, despite Corry this week stating he was eager to play.

Nobody in Leinster is complaining, but the chances of an Edinburgh upset are considerably reduced by Robinson resting his four best players - Nick de Luca, Mike Blair, Allan Jacobsen and Ross Ford.

He attempted to explain: "Our whole focus is just on Toulouse and I'd like people to understand whoever wears the shirt it doesn't matter . . . we're there to win." It actually does matter and a coach of Robinson's stature should not spout such tripe.

"This is my call," he explained. "It's also a great opportunity for the players who are coming in, as there's no better place to prove yourself than in Toulouse."

There is also no better place to receive a hiding. Just ask Leinster and Leicester.

Considering all that, a general feeling of irrelevance washes over Welford Road. If Leinster turn on the style as only they can but still come up short in the qualifying stakes, the question will be why they could not do likewise in previous away matches.

If they lose to an undercooked Tigers, people will justifiably continue to highlight the failure to improve despite the building blocks recently put in place - namely, the strengthening of the pack.

In a sense they cannot win, can they? All they can do is perform to the expected standard. Eleven of the squad go into the Ireland camp tomorrow evening so Eddie O'Sullivan will have the sliderule out.

With Shane Horgan sidelined by a rib injury and Denis Hickie retired, Luke Fitzgerald and Rob Kearney find themselves scrapping for the international wing berths against Ulster's Andrew Trimble and Tommy Bowe, and Tigers fullback Geordan Murphy. Bowe and Horgan, when fit again, remain the likely frontrunners.

Guy Easterby starts his 64th and final game for the province as his short-term contract ends, while prop Ollie Le Roux returns to the replacements alongside his fellow loosehead Cian Healy. Le Roux also provides hooker cover should Cheika decide to use Gary Brown ahead of Brian Blaney. That decision will be made closer to kick-off.

The door to the backrow keeps revolving as Keith Gleeson ends a pretty miserable week by dropping to the bench, Shane Jennings moving to openside against his old team-mates and Stephen Keogh returning to the blindside. Leo Cullen also returns to his former stamping ground for a 50th Heineken European Cup appearance.

Leicester never roll over at Welford Road, but Leinster have a stronger hand here.

As for a miracle in Toulouse? Not today.

LEICESTER TIGERS:G Murphy; J Murphy, O Smith, S Rabeni, T Varndell; A Goode, F Murphy; M Castrogiovanni, B Kayser, J White; L Deacon (capt), M Wentzel; B Deacon, B Herring, J Crane. Replacements: G Chuter, M Ayerza, D Young, B Kay, B Youngs, I Humphreys, A Erinle.

LEINSTER:G Dempsey; L Fitzgerald, B O'Driscoll (capt), G D'Arcy, R Kearney; F Contepomi, G Easterby; S Wright, B Jackman, S Knoop; L Cullen, M O'Kelly; S Keogh, S Jennings, J Heaslip. Replacements: O Le Roux, C Healy, C Jowitt, K Gleeson, C Keane, J Sexton, G Brown/B Blaney.

Referee:Christophe Berdos (France).

Odds(Paddy Power): Leicester to win 1/2, Leinster to win 13/8, draw 20/1.

Verdict:Leinster to win.