Leinster have it all to do

At about 8.00 tonight the Donnybrook hordes will bid adieu to their Friday nights under lights. What a pity. Whether Leinster will also be bidding farewell to their season will also be known.

It has been a season that at one stage promised so much for the province, but now comes down to the wire after five defeats in six games.

Victory over Llanelli in their concluding European Cup pool game is essential if Leinster are to have a quarter-final on the second weekend in December to look forward to. Even then this quasi play-off for a quarter-final spot comes with the proviso that Begles/Bordeaux (who lead tonight's Donnybrook protagonists on points difference) don't beat Stade Francais to snatch the qualifying place for the group runners-up.

Another defeat for the French champions and group leaders, Stade Francais, would require an unlikely degree of complacency, and it is of some comfort to Leinster that there is a distinct edge to that French rivalry. However, that's as maybe. First off, Leinster must do their stuff tonight. For that to happen, they will have to pick themselves up off the ground a little. The current batch of injuries to Victor Costello, Dennis Hickie, Derek Hegarty, John McWeeney, David O'Mahony, Martin Ridge and Gordon D'Arcy, amongst others, has resulted in another reshuffled selection. Irish squad member Ciaran Scally makes his full Leinster debut, Hubie Kos is retained over Pat Holden in an effort to broaden Leinster's lineout options, and Kevin Nowlan moves to the wing for the first time with Ciaran Clarke coming back into the team, while Trevor Brennan is being patched up and wheeled out from the start for however long his battered body holds out.

It's been the story of their season. At least 21 players have been ruled out through injury at one stage or another, all but three of them fully-fledged Leinster players and seven of them internationals.

Hence only seven members of the team which, slightly fortuitously, accounted for Llanelli thanks to a late try by D'Arcy in the original meeting, 10 of Llanelli's line-up do.

On top of which, ironically, even some of the regulars haven't had vintage campaigns. Like Gabriel Fulcher and Alan McGowan, who, though he is the second highest points scorer in the Cup's four-year history with 209 points, has gradually had his confidence eroded during an erratic and much criticised campaign.

Somehow though, Leinster have to dig deep and invoke the spirit of the home win over Begles/Bordeaux with, better still, some of the elan shown away to Munster and Ulster. Another huge home turn-out and the prospect of the season ending ought to help. On an individual level, many have plenty to play for. There's the contracts for next season to think of, and while the Irish management may have done them no favours by only picking two Munster men two weeks ago before the inteprovincial decider, this time they may have stoked the home dressing-room by picking only three Leinster players in the Irish World Cup squad.

Certainly the demoted pair of Reggie Corrigan and Brennan will feel they've a point to prove, as might Clarke and, finally, Fulcher. For Scally this is also a big opportunity, after just four appearances on the bench lasting 108 minutes, of which 64 were as a try-scoring, replacement winger.

With Leinster's participation in next year's Cup also hanging by a thread, how many of the other three Irish provinces join Munster this weekend in the quarter-finals of the both competitions might go some way towards determining whether Ireland has two or three entries in the 1999-2000 European Cup.

After letting a winning position slip against Stade Francais, Leinster would have to have won this game no matter what. However, had they beaten Stade it would surely have kept the latter more competitive. Instead, the surprise defeat of an under-strength Stade last week in Stradey Park has now served to revive Llanelli's own quarter-final hopes.

Wayne Proctor, Steven Jones, captain Robyn McBride and lock Vernon Cooper return to a starting line-up which boasts 10 internationals, including US flanker Dave Hodges. Home advantage and geographical placement has encouraged the bookies to make Leinster slight favourites, though there are enough concerns about Leinster's recent decline to ensure the home crowd approach this game with trepidation.

Question marks abound - the disruptive effect of the latest enforced changes, poor collective and individual form of late, the lack of quick, quality ruck ball and the partially ensuing lack of running options further out.

Yet home advantage may well count for something. Irish-Welsh games tend to go that way, and as bad as Irish sides are on their travels, Welsh ones are even worse. In eight European away ties, Llanelli have only won once, against Caledonia. In 21 European away ties this season, Welsh sides have lost all bar three.

Tonight will reveal much about this Leinster team's inner resolve, but with some help from the crowd and a bench which gives them some good options, a hunch says they'll get there.