It's the Welsh who seem in trouble

The little Englander mentality which thinks that the red rose is too grand by far for the Five Nations was briefly granted its wish on Saturday. And the last opening day of the last Five Nations of the century - and indeed for good - was a timely reminder that European rugby would surely be dead without it.

It will be damn all consolation to Warren Gatland and his players that Ireland again succeeded in bridging the great divide between the Celts and the Big Two for the second year running in twice losing to the best side in Europe by an aggregate of three points.

This wasn't a free-flowing classic, but those who inferred that the Scotland-Wales game was the better game to be at missed the point. Murrayfield was crisp and dry, with plenty of exuberant cut and thrust rugby, if lightweight and littered with errors. But Lansdowne Road was a real test, a real heavyweight spiritual collision, and none the worse for that. The contrasting affairs merely underlined that variety is part of the Five Nations' rich tapestry.

When Ireland's 1949 Grand Slammers and Ulster's European Cup trophy were paraded at half-time, the thought occurred that the IRFU were intent on displaying everything Ireland had ever won in one interval. Perhaps, it was also tempting fate. Nor was Australian referee Peter Marshall made to order. "Beneath discussion," was Jim Glennon's verdict on radio of the officials' performance. How Marshall's touch judges managed to not raise their flags once is mind-boggling, especially during the violent period in the second half when France blatantly targeted Keith Wood through Ibanez, Pelous, Dourthe, Magne and Benetton with all manner of skullduggery on the deck.

When Jim Fleming did finally intervene, the officials conspired to mistake the longest-haired player on the field, Philippe Bernat-Salles, with the most cropped (save for Wood's balding pate), namely Benetton. It's a wonder they didn't mistake Wood's dome for the ball.

Marshall having taken the last-ditch penalty a potentially critical few metres further back and out, the capricious wind and the Gods seemed then to contrive against poor David Humphreys at the end, and now the debate will no doubt rage about the place-kicking issue. It's all very well saying Ireland must now select a proven placekicker, or at least one currently kicking goals every week, but exactly what is the preferred alternative?

They nearly all involve a sacrifice, or at any rate the risk of one. Replacing Humphreys with Eric Elwood would be most damaging of all for the two Irish out-halves concerned, as it would again revive memories of that hoary old Campbell-Ward chestnut. Nor has Elwood been able to offer convincing counter evidence. It would also go against the Gatland credo of consistency of selection and picking the player in form, which has been one of the bedrocks around which this team has made discernible progress. As for the notion that Gatland should have replaced Humphreys with Elwood at half-time, this is even more risible. For starters, this questionable action would have meant taking Humphreys off within 10 minutes of him making the last outside break by an Irish out-half since Brian Smith circa Murrayfield 1991.

Simon Mason displacing Conor O'Shea at full back? O'Shea is playing the rugby of his life and it showed in his most convincing performance yet for Ireland. Compare his confidence under the high ball to that of Emile N'Tamack's (admittedly, Humphreys' up-and-unders were superior to Thomas Castaignede's). Furthermore, his running and recycling of the ball in contact were immensely strong, thereby preventing a single turnover against him.

Indeed, apart from one fumble of a low Conor McGuinness pass under his own posts, and a failed attempted pick-up on the run after a trademark Rob Henderson charge had stretched the French cover (eminently forgivable on a day when handling errors sprinkled the occasion) O'Shea was virtually flawless. No, dropping him doesn't make sense.

As for the idea of picking Mason on the wing, one would have thought that picking Niall Woods there in his customary position would make more sense. It is Woods' specialist position, he is a good deal quicker, and maintained his potent form with a mesmerising 50 metre run in setting up one try while also scoring another in London Irish's latest win on Sunday.

As Girvan Dempsey had little to do defensively and only received a couple of attacking balls, the idea of calling aboard Woods on the wing appears less risky than recalling Elwood.

However, a hunch says Gatland will study the video of the Wales game, observe the quick, elusive and physically imposing Welsh right winger Matthew Robinson (a cousin of Welsh football striker Nathan Blake) and deduce that Dempsey is the best man to take care of him, while taking another look at Woods on the `A' team.

The Irish coach may therefore stick with Humphreys, as both out-half and goalkicker, in the hope that last Saturday was a one-off and that the player will come good at Wembley. It's true that Humphreys' wayward place-kicking may have contributed to his general decline in his performance level - a couple of passes with red crosses writ large on them and three wayward line kicks - but Saturday was a big step up in pace from European Cup level and he should benefit from it.

If so, there may be as little as one enforced change to the starting line-up which took the field against France, that being Andy Ward for the injured Victor Costello in a rejigged back-row. The classy duo of Dion O'Cuinneagain and Eric Miller (who came even more into his own as a ball-carrier after being switched to number eight) again proved their versatility on Saturday, although Costello's loss was possibly critical.

Aside from Ward's state of body, the Irish management may also be mindful that Trevor Brennan's arrival for Costello then led to the penalty for breaking off a scrum prematurely from which France scored their try, not to mention his yellow-carded high tackle on Carbonneau. Hence, Alan Quinlan may also be included in an expanded squad.

Gatland is not a panicky coach by nature, and in turn does not transmit panic to his players by way of changeable selections. Nor is it time to panic just yet. The Welsh scrum, though heavier, looked targetable against the Scots, their line-out disintegrated in the final quarter, was susceptible to the Scots' mauls, and their tendency to stand off and pan out was ripe for the Scottish pack's pick-and-go second-half assault.

Even their backs' striking tendency to play the game flat and on the gain line could be manna from heaven to the Irish midfield. With a bit of that supposed luck of the Irish, they could be made to order.