Irish selectors faced with pleasant dilemma

Over the next 48 hours the Irish and English think tanks will reveal their hands for next Saturday's Lansdowne Road showdown. It's of some comfort to home supporters that a far greater degree of certainty hangs over Warren Gatland's selection, with even Funghi down in Dingle liable to have a good stab at naming at least 14 of the Irish starting lineup to be announced today.

By comparison, even hardened Clive Woodward watchers amongst the media pack seem reluctant to name the English team. Although the pack is unlikely to be changed, question marks surround numbers nine and 15, and perhaps even 10 and 12. There seems to be a consensus that Kyran Bracken and Matt Perry will come in for Matt Dawson and Nick Beal when the team is announced tomorrow, with a switch between Mike Catt and Johnny Wilkinson at out-half and inside centre; but the latter is thought less likely.

Woodward, though, has stated his desire to adhere to a settled team, and will be conscious of the need to keep changes to a minimum. Besides, Beal and Dawson have the type of physical presence suited for this encounter.

Against that, although Beal gave a glimmer of his attacking potential with his opportunist and decisive try against Scotland, he did not inspire confidence under the high ball. Scotland. And, ahem, a few are sure to come the England full back's way on Saturday.

Perry, though slighter, seems more consistent under the high ball and Woodward is a fan, although Perry has suffered along with others in Bath's freefall this season. That would seem the likeliest change, although Dawson, too, had a mixed afternoon against the Scots.

After his sterling efforts Down Under in that backs-against-thewall four-Test tour of the Southern Hemisphere, and his leading role in the defeat of the Springboks last December, Dawson deserved his retention. Here again Woodward would seem to have a preference for the Skerries-born Bracken, who, up until that Scottish match, has always been preferred at scrum-half when available.

It's an interesting conundrum for the English coach, who works under the kind of intense pressure which would make Gatland wince. In both the defeat to Australia and the victory over South Africa, like much else, the reaction seemed over the top.

The pressure on England to not so much beat Scotland as to do so with a triple somersault and 10 out of 10 for artistic impression ensured that the win was greeted as an anti-climax, from within and without. In some respects, the pressure is reduced by coming to Lansdowne Road and facing an Irish team which now commands respect. England will probably just take the win in this one and be glad for it.

They haven't become a bad side overnight, and amid the hyped-up talk of an Irish Triple Crown, as winners of the crown for the last four years they are entitled to start favourites. They'll assuredly play better than they did against Scotland, and, for all the talk of Total Rugby, revert to type with a bullying all-white pack.

That remains the cornerstone of their team and the under-pressure Lawrence Dallaglio had a timely and restorative try-scoring performance for Wasps in their cup quarter-final win over London Irish.

Even so, the uncertainty over selection is strikingly at odds with their hosts. George Hook in the Sunday Independent unveiled the mildly staggering statistic that England have used 56 players in Woodward's 17-match tenure as coach.

Admittedly, that figure is distorted by the kamikaze tour and skeletal squad which the Twickenham blazers and club owners left Woodward with for last summer's tour. Even so, it is an alarming turnover in players, for not even England (with its unequalled playing pool) have the quality in depth to field almost four Test sides.

Indeed, if anything, the influx of mostly ex-international players from abroad into the English league has diminished the reserves of native English players in the most over-hyped league in the world and left Woodward with diminished "Test" reserves at his disposal.

Whether their performance against Scotland indicated that England have come back to the pack, only time will tell. But certainly the Celts have made strides in closing the gap, none more so than Ireland.

As he celebrates his first anniversary as Irish coach, Warren Gatland can reflect on definite signs of progress. Recognising that Ireland had used over 60 players in the previous three years, a key element of his strategy has been consistency of selection.

True to his word, Gatland has picked 37 players in his 10 tests, and barring injury the vast bulk of this current squad will assuredly travel to Australia and on to the World Cup. It has also been vital in developing the club-like esprit de corps within the Irish camp.

So it is that the only issue of debate when Gatland, Philip Danaher and Donal Lenihan discussed the team last night concerned the back row, where they must select three from four. The versatility of Dion O'Cuinneagain and Eric Miller, especially, means a third different formation in three games is possible, with Costello returning in place of Miller.

Costello's greater physical presence and ability to punch over the gain line would seem more of a horses-for-courses selection. This would enable Ireland to use the more dynamic Miller when the game opens up a bit in the final quarter.

Going strictly on the form book over the two Five Nations games so far though, there could be a reversion to the back row which took on France: Costello at number eight flanked by Miller on the blind side and O'Cuinneagain on the open side.

Andy Ward was the least impressive of the quartet in the victory over Wales, when he missed a couple of tackles on his inside shoulder and looked off the pace a little - understandable given his three-week lay-off through injury. Still, he's been ever-present under Gatland, save for that French game, and a pep talk from the coach may be all that is required.

O'Cuinneagain began the season as fourth choice, coming off the bench to replace Costello and Miller, in turn, on the hour and at half-time in the World Cup qualifiers. Since then he may have supplanted them all and become first choice. His work-rate around the pitch is phenomenal, he too adds a dynamism in broken play (witness the switch with Niall Woods in the build-up to Keith Wood's try against Wales) and, as an open side, he controlled that passageway inside out-half against France almost flawlessly.

Either way, it's a pleasant position of strength for Gatland, Lenihan and Danaher. The Three Wise Men probably feel they could opt for any three of their four stars, and no one would crib.