Ireland to deliver in close encounter

Now comes the hard part. Going to Paris in a nothing-to-lose scenario was, relatively speaking, the easy part. Squaring up to Wales in a must-win scenario to the backdrop of an expectant Lansdowne Road crowd is altogether more difficult. That may sound perverse, but then again this is Irish rugby.

Fear was a primary part of the motivational equation when Ireland prepared for their Parisian venture a fortnight ago. France had run up a half century in Murrayfield and were half-way toward back-to-back grand slams. Ireland had good reason to be fearful.

Against France, too, Ireland had the element of surprise working with them, a new coach and a French team caught a little on the hop. No disrespect to them, but this Welsh side does not engender that same fear. So all the old worrying cliches apply, namely: Ireland are best when they're the underdogs and Ireland rarely string two big performances together.

Such simplistic observations may irritate Irish players, yet there's more than a semblance of truth to them. Former players regularly recall such examples of anti-climactic displays or failure to fulfil favouritism: such as losing at home to Wales in 1992 after the memorable World Cup quarterfinal defeat to Australia.

The difference now is that there was only a break of a week before the squad re-assembled last Sunday and, of course, Warren Gatland is at the helm. Accordingly, there is a palpable sense of realism mixed with self-belief in this squad already. They're happier in training and they're also more self-confident.

Admittedly, a coach can only do so much yet no team of Gatland's has been mentally suspect. Connacht may have laboured a little in `target' home wins over Nice and Begles, but they got there in the end.

First off, rugby is a game of legalised violence, but to put the body on the line the mind has to be right. Given these are two mentally brittle sides, it's hard not to think that the game will be won in the mind.

Aside from re-discovering that sense of fear (i.e. of losing as opposed to winning - witness the closing stages against Scotland) the doubts about Ireland are the ones referred to so often this season, namely the vicious circle of defeats.

A couple of points either way is the equivalent of a mile for this team. Not alone are they relatively inexperienced compared to Wales, but they've little experience of winning. Against that, seven of them know how to beat Wales and have slain the Welsh dragon 17 times between them.

In this regard, the welcome return of Eric Elwood (who has been on the winning side four times out of five against Wales) and Ciaran Clarke (very much a Gatland selection) enhances the team's mental and physical solidity. Indeed, added to the selection of Andy Ward and the return of Rob Henderson this is a more physically imposing side than any Brian Ashton sent out.

This is also synonymous with the shift back toward home-based players. There are seven in this line-up, more than at any other stage in the Brian Ashton era. Admittedly, Ashton was going for a different style of player not readily available on the domestic market, whereas Gatland has tailored the cloth to suit its measure.

In a very subtle way, this Irish team has undergone a sea change. By going back to basics, the attack is founded on a rock-like defence. Gatland has strongly hinted at adding another dimension or two to the gameplan, and it will be a surprise if Clarke's ability to hit the line isn't utilised.

Nonetheless, even off broken play Gatland's Ireland will play a more structured game as opposed to the ad lib rugby of the previous coach. One senses that ultimately the players are happier with this greater sense of direction.

Aside from defending hard and in Wales' faces, one would expect the Connacht halves of Conor McGuinness and Elwood to keep the ball in front of the pack as much as possible, and to turn Wales with garryowens and box kicks.

There remains the nagging suspicion that this Irish team is still more comfortable without the ball than with it. Thus far, the backs have still not been able to convert any openings into tries, and the summit of the team's try scoring has been one pushover/penalty try and one intercept try.

By contrast, Wales have run in five from a variety of angles in two games, even managing four against England. They included one Gareth Thomas inspired counter-attack from his own line, and another finished off by the latter after a 90-second passage involving eight rucks.

Such continuity and finishing has been beyond Ireland. However, Ireland's defence is liable to be stronger than England's, who were willingly prepared to engage Wales in open, new age rugby. This Ireland won't.

Furthermore, Wales are unlikely to have fully healed the deep-rooted scars of that Twickenham humiliation with that laboured and fortuitous win over Scotland. If Lansdowne Road is alive, alive-o again, after the crowd's own dismal performance against Scotland, and both the home crowd and the home team get the encouragement of a good start - will Wales have the mental strength for it?

It is true that Garin Jenkins and David Young have been around the block and know the score, while Robert Howley, Alan Bateman and Gareth Thomas are class acts. Neil Jenkins may have a reputation as a kicker but in point of fact he moved a Pontypridd back-line to good effect in the European Cup.

Leigh Davies, a beast of a player according to Keith Wood, looked a very good player two years ago but it's hard not to think that Wales will miss those inspirational big hits and crash ball drives of Scott Gibbs. And all told, they look a pretty undistinguished line-up, especially up front.

The signs are encouraging enough, even if this is Dublin rather than Cardiff. Although home advantage has been negligible in this fixture, two home wins in the last 14 years, Ireland are on a roll of four successive wins over Wales. With Elwood and Ciaran Clarke back in harness, there's shades of 93 all over again - when an encouraging display over France was followed by victories over Wales and England.

Beating England at Twickenham in a fortnight may seem fanciful, but it would be a helluva lot less fanciful if Ireland win today. Then the pressure is off and they can go to London in time-honoured, give-it-a-lash fashion. Alternatively, defeat today would leave Ireland mentally even more scarred and staring down the barrel not only of an English side perhaps seeking a Triple Crown, but with a tour to South Africa as an addendum.

So, an awful lot hinges on this game. It's why a win, as the coach said by 1-0, will do. And if it's true to say that packs win matches and backs by how much, then the likeliest outcome is that Ireland will win but perhaps not by very much.

Replacements

Ireland: M McCall (London Irish), D Humphreys (London Irish), B O'Meara (Cork Constitution), N Popplewell (Newcastle), R Nesdale (Newcastle), P Clohessy (Young Munster), M Galwey (Shannon), E Miller (Leicester). Final seven to be decided today.

Wales: N Boobyer (Llanelli), B Hayward (Ebbw Vale), P John (Pontypridd), S Davies (Swansea), S Roy (Pontypridd), L Mustoe (Cardiff), J Humphreys (Cardiff).

Referee: Ed Morrison (England).