Ireland need to move up another gear

RUGBY ANALYST:The focus today needs to be on taming the Italian pack but the mental focus may inadvertently switch to the French

WHEN COMPARING two sides I always adopt a simple theory. I look directly at the spine of each line-up. That means hooker, number eight, scrumhalf, outhalf and fullback. The theory is these players have their hands on the ball more than anyone else on the field and the player who holds the ball owns the game.

Looking at today’s meeting, this theory shifts the weight massively in favour of Ireland.

Take Jerry Flannery, Jamie Heaslip, Tomás O’Leary, Ronan O’Gara – who we shall come back to – Rob Kearney and compare them to the Italian spine which, particularly in the absence of Sergio Parisse through injury, is largely unknown and besides naturalised Aussie Craig Gower they are based in the barely professional Italian league.

Heaslip and Kearney were exceptional on the Lions tour and cemented their world class status in November. Flannery, before the elbow injury, was a walk-up starter for the Lions Test team.

The improving O’Leary and a defiant O’Gara complete the spine of an Ireland team that has few peers (one being France) in Northern Hemisphere rugby.

The Italian lineout throwing in November was a problem as was the decision making by the halves. The Italian leader and proven world class operator, Parisse, may be crocked but the pack remain a powerful and effective pick and go unit, so difficult to halt close to the line. They also proved against the All Blacks at the San Siro their scrum remains one of the most destructive around.

In November, the match-saving try by Brian O’Driscoll against Australia and Keith Earls’ first against Fiji both came from simple but effective set-play moves off a stable scrum.

Martin Castrogiovanni will seek to dismantle this platform and with it the burgeoning reputation of Cian Healy.

I had the pleasure of getting to know Nick Mallett, the record breaking former Springbok coach now in charge of Italy, when he was at Stade Français and know he will be aware a coach can only bring out what is inside each player.

The Italian backs are passionate, tough and committed but they are nowhere near the required international standard.

I remember in 2007, the night before Ireland needed a record score against Italy in Rome I texted a few players to wish them luck. Denis Hickie’s one sentence reply was: “We’re going for it.”

The Irish backline demolished Italy the next day. Expect something similar this afternoon, with the forwards supplying enough clean phase play for the threequarters to punch holes in a weak defensive system.

Ireland have two major problems heading into the Six Nations as Grand Slam champions. They cannot admit it but this game is primarily about preparation for the trip to Paris next week when the championship will be won or lost.

The focus needs to be on taming the Italian pack but the mental focus may inadvertently switch to the French. What is crucial for Ireland is the rebuilding of confidence and belief.

Secondly, the main message coming from the Ireland camp is they want to repeat last year’s achievements without overly altering the tried and trusted formula.

There is a legendary story in Australian coaching on this subject. Charlie Walsh, perhaps the greatest Australian track cycling coach, guided the four-man pursuit team to the 1984 4,000 metres Olympic gold medal. Walsh tells the story that the following season the team repeated the same training programme but with better times. The same pre-tournament preparation followed and they went to the world championships full to the brim with confidence. They finished fourth.

To stand still in international sport is to go backwards. Since last year’s Six Nations, France went down to New Zealand and won before demolishing South Africa in November. Scotland beat Australia and are maturing. England can only improve and a host of quality players are back fit again.

If Ireland can only repeat last year’s form and tactics they will finish mid-table.

Statistically speaking, of the Northern Hemisphere teams Ireland have the lowest number of passes and highest number of kicks per game. In fairness, these stats hide an excellent set-play attack.

The danger is the opposition will have rigorously analysed Declan Kidney’s style of play and will have worked out counter measures to this simple, albeit highly effective, gameplan.

Ireland need to evolve to have any hope of retaining their title.

They could collectively take a leaf out of Ronan O’Gara’s book. He has responded to Jonathan Sexton as only a champion can. His Heineken Cup displays for Munster produced determination and self-belief with a refusal to stand still as a player. Basically, O’Gara insisted on being selected for Ireland.

I am guessing he didn’t need to read the papers. I have always found Ronan a very impressive man off the field, always quick to walk across a room and shake hands, in victory or defeat.

Pride is a given with him.

Ireland cannot be complacent, like O’Gara could have been and like him, they must grow and move. Sexton exudes uncannily similar character traits, leaving Irish outhalf play in rude good health. I’m enjoying their duel, only interrupted this weekend by Johnny’s dead leg.

In direct contrast, Gower has struggled with the cross-over from rugby league to rugby union. He was an excellent league standoff in Australia but has failed to adapt to the pace of international rugby union, looking uninterested against the All Blacks last year.

The most difficult transition for a league player is the loss of time on the ball, as there is no 10-metre defensive line, so the safety net to look, think and then act disappears.

Expect some crankier than usual Italian forward resistance today as they try to counter their obvious weaknesses.

Finally, there are real economic reasons to caution Italy’s involvement in the Magners League but for the good of rugby in the Northern Hemisphere the Celtic unions must find a way to accommodate them. Otherwise, Italian rugby can never experience rapid growth like Irish rugby has experienced since 2000.

Ireland will win well today. The hope is to gain confidence and co-ordination from this while avoiding injuries, because the 2010 season will be defined next weekend in France.