Ireland have too much to lose

RUGBY:EVERYONE is undefeated. Optimism abounds. And why not? The world's oldest tournament has seen four different winners in the last four years.

Needless to say, all four kick-started their campaign with wins, hence once again the pre-RBS Six Nations buzzword is momentum.

Ireland couldn’t buy an opening weekend win in the naughty Nineties, but have won their first game in 10 of the relatively bountiful last 11 seasons. It perhaps helps when you have Italy first up in seven of those years, but this time it’s the dastardly Welsh, and with the Parisian graveyard awaiting just six nights later, this looks campaign-defining.

Although nothing like the Dad’s Army portrayed (all of the backs could more than conceivably make the next World Cup), the Irish XV has 561 caps compared to Wales’ 441; their average age is 27.8 as against Wales’ 25.9.

Playing at home and with an older side given a shot at redemption, the consequences of defeat – and hence the pressure on Ireland to win – are all the greater.

Welsh injury woes also contrast with Irish rude good health, but the sands shifted a tad yesterday with the news Keith Earls has been ruled out, while the Welsh strategist Rhys Priestland and their main go-to man, Jamie Roberts, have both recovered from knee injuries, although the latter hasn’t played in eight weeks.

Earls has been ruled out for personal reasons. “Unfortunately his baby daughter has been taken ill and is in hospital as we speak,” explained Ireland team manager Mick Kearney yesterday.

“The nature of the illness is unclear. However, I did speak to Keith this morning and he was hopeful and optimistic the baby might get home sometime over the weekend.”

As Rory Best observed, this puts a rugby game into context. “I suppose there are moments in your life when you realise that there is something more important than rugby,” he said with deliberate understatement.

“All of the players wish him and his family all the best and hopefully his little girl feels a lot better and Keith will be available to join us soon. He’s a great character in the squad and he’ll be missed this weekend as a player and as a person.”

Fergus McFadden starts and the uncapped David Kearney is promoted to the bench, which leaves the team without specialist cover at fullback. This would have disappointed Denis Hurley and Gavin Duffy, and would seem to spell the end for Geordan Murphy’s hopes of an Aviva farewell.

Since the World Cup quarter-final, aside from Wales losing three matches while Ireland have been inactive, the provinces have provided three Heineken Cup quarter-finalists to one. Hence there’s no doubt the Irish players came together in better shape, physically and mentally.

Dan Lydiate was obliged to play for the Dragons in a dead Challenge Cup rubber against Cavalieri Prato, which they won 45-16. An accident waiting to happen duly happened and Lydiate joined the other Wellington workhorse Luke Charteris, Alun-Wyne Jones and Gethin Jenkins on the injured list.

Wales thus have six changes from the team which lost in Shane Williams’s farewell against Australia in early December and five alterations from the Wellington line-up. Ireland have only three changes in personnel, though admittedly number 13 is some jersey to fill.

However, we should be wary of taking Heineken Cup form as a true barometer, for Wales out-performed Ireland (and all their Euro rivals) despite not providing one quarter-finalist in last season’s Heineken Cup, nor one finalist since 1996 in a competition Irish teams have won four times in the last six years.

Aside from the step up to Test rugby’s more elevated air, perhaps the Heineken Cup is both a strength and a weakness for the Irish team, and vice versa for the Welsh. As with the supporters, provincial ties matter more for Irish players, whereas the emotional ties in Wales remain altogether closer to the national jersey than to their regions.

Between them Declan Kidney and Warren Gatland have won two Grand Slams, three Heineken Cups, a World Under-20 Cup, three Premierships, a Challenge Cup, an NPC title, an A Six Nations and an under-20 Triple Crown.

Oddly, though, despite parallel careers, their paths only crossed in one Munster-Connacht match before sharing two wins apiece in the last four Ireland-Wales meetings, but there’s no doubt the Welsh enjoyed something of a tactical coup as well as a better performance in Wellington.

With that game in mind, the Irish scrum will be looking for a stronger showing, given the Welsh may target them there again; their collision/breakdown work needs to be more accurate and give quicker ball and the target ball carriers such as Seán O’Brien, Stephen Ferris, Jamie Heaslip and Cian Healy need to be employed in more than just the one-off slot.

Indeed, Ireland will surely attack with more variety, perhaps with more pick-and-go carries closer in as well as utilising a secondary line of runners to outmanoeuvre the Welsh fast-up, outside-in defence.

The selection of Jonathan Sexton for his first start against Wales since the win in Croke Park two years ago also gives the Welsh a greater running threat to think about. Ireland will assuredly take their points, not run so much from their own half either, and put the ball in behind the young Welsh wingers if offered.

The surprising selection of Alex Cuthbert, a quick if inexperienced product of the Welsh Sevens, for his second cap with the in-form Leigh Halfpenny moving to full-back in a back three with an average of 21 – to the exclusion altogether of Lee Byrne – suggested to Les Kiss yesterday Wales may be more inclined to counter as well as using Halfpenny and Priestland’s long-kicking game.

But although the feeling abated a little yesterday, you still sense this is a good time for Ireland to meet Wales first up.

Recent results: 2011 – Wales 22 Ireland 10 (Wellington, RWC); Wales 19 Ireland 13. 2010 – Ireland 27 Wales 12. 2009 – Wales 15 Ireland 17. 2008 – Ireland 12 Wales 16. 2007 – Ireland 9 Wales 19.

Overall head to head: Played 117. Ireland 47 wins, Wales 64 wins, 6 draws.

Betting (Paddy Powers): 4/9 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 2/1 Wales. Handicap odds (Wales +5pts) Evens Ireland, 18/1 Draw, Evens Wales.

Forecast: Ireland to win.

IRELAND v WALES

(Leinster) Rob Kearney

(Ospreys) Tommy Bowe

(Leinster) Fergus McFadden

(Leinster) Gordon D'Arcy

(Ulster) Andrew Trimble

(Leinster) Jonathan Sexton

(Munster) Conor Murray

(Leinster) Cian Healy

(Ulster) Rory Best

(Leinster) Mike Ross

(Munster) Donncha O'Callaghan

(Munster) Paul O'Connell (c)

(Ulster) Stephen Ferris

(Leinster) Seán O'Brien

(Leinster) Jamie Heaslip

Replacements: Seán Cronin (Leinster), Tom Court (Ulster), Donnacha Ryan (Munster), Eoin Reddan (Leinster), Ronan O'Gara (Munster), David Kearney (Leinster).

Leigh Halfpenny (Cardiff Blues)

Alex Cuthbert (Cardiff Blues)

Jonathan Davies (Scarlets)

Jamie Roberts (Cardiff Blues)

George North (Scarlets)

Rhys Priestland (Scarlets)

Mike Phillips (Bayonne)

Rhys Gill (Saracens)

Huw Bennett (Ospreys)

Adam Jones (Ospreys)

Bradley Davies (Cardiff Blues)

Ian Evans (Ospreys)

Ryan Jones (Ospreys)

Sam Warburton (c) (Cardiff Blues)

Toby Faletau (N-G Dragons)

Replacements: Ken Owens (Scarlets), Paul James (Ospreys), Andy Powell (Sale), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Lloyd Williams (Cardiff Blues), James Hook (Perpignan), Scott Williams (Scarlets).

Aviva Stadium, tomorrow, 3.0pm. On TV: RTE 2, BBC 1

Referee: Wayne Barnes (England).