Ireland have a target to meet

On the surface, this could almost be interpreted yet again as a minor end-of-season Celtic squabble while the Championship decider is taking place at Twickenham. For Ireland there is no Triple Crown or Championship to go for, and while there will be no whitewash, a fourth successive wooden spoon lurks. It remains a massive game.

It is massive for Ireland especially because it is the defining game of their Championship. It is a chance to achieve the pre-season goal of victories in two targeted matches and with it the almost dizzying heights of third place. That would make it a satisfying campaign. If a first win in four attempts over the Italians follows in two weeks, Ireland can depart merrily to Australia this summer.

Defeat carries the risk of another wooden spoon and if that happens the away win over Wales - you can hear Irish supporters already yawning "big deal, sure we always win that one" - and running France to a point will be quickly forgotten.

Today's game provides a chance for the team, as a whole, to redeem itself after the England performance. Some individuals will also be seeking to repair battered reputations. It is also a chance for Ireland to put to bed their nemesis of the '90s, namely those dastardly Scots. That would be quite a feather in their cap. Warren Gatland and these players can achieve a landmark win which was beyond the teams of four Irish coaches before them.

During the 11-year, win-less streak against the Scots - and it dates back 14 years to Murrayfield - several of the defeats were inexplicably close. Irish players came off the pitch and wondered how they had lost. The feeling persisted in advance of most Scotland-Ireland collisions that there really wasn't much between the teams.

However, some of the losses in Edinburgh were harrowing. The defeat two years ago was probably the nadir for Irish rugby, worse than the rout by England in Dublin that season. When Brian Ashton looked into the players' eyes at half-time that day, with the score at 7-7 and captain Jim Staples departed through injury, he sensed they were gone. It was Paul Flavin's sole start, it was the day David Humphreys finished on the wing. It was horrible.

Put together a table of the last 10 or 12 years in the Five Nations and the Scots, far from loitering with their Celtic brethren, are by some distance the third best team - much closer to England and France than they are to Wales and Ireland. So Ireland shouldn't labour under any illusions.

After the defeat to England, optimism is hardly plentiful. Contrastingly, there's not a Scotsman in sight who expects anything less than another home win and a tilt at the French for second place in the championship or maybe even first place.

Once again coach Jim Telfer has worked a loaves and fishes job from the appalling mess that is Scotland's rugby structures and the overwhelming pessimism which hung over them earlier this season has been transformed. Today's full house welcomes a settled Scottish team, fresh from home wins over Wales and Italy, results which were sandwiched by a near-win in Twickenham.

They have a decent and underrated set-piece pack, including possibly the find of the Five Nations season in the one-time Scottish under-19 basketball player, lock Scott Murray. They also have the Telfer trademark of a mobile back row and a quick rucking game. A hardcore of experience runs through the team from nine to 13. Gregor Townsend and John Leslie can transform a game in an instant. Scotland look to have a bit more creativity about them, and if it gets wild and loose, as in that scary 15 to 20 minutes at Wembley, you'd almost fear for this Irish team.

Scotland's graph seems to be heading upward while Ireland's has tailed off since the opening show against France. But it may not be that simple. The Scots were not happy with their performance against Italy and it's forgotten that for the best part of an hour, in between garnering a softish 14 points, they were inferior to Wales. And you'd have to wonder what would have happened had England stuck to their forward guns beyond the first 15 minutes against Scotland, as they did against Ireland.

Perversely, perhaps, Ireland would be more vulnerable if they were chasing a Triple Crown. Scotland would be more respectful and fired up. The signs are that Ireland will produce a big, much-improved performance today with a return to more traditional, in-your-face, offensive defence.

Warren Gatland has given them a wake-up call. They have trained much better than they did before the English game. And their setpieces will assuredly be better than they were a fortnight ago, giving the more dynamic Eric Miller and the halves a better platform than existed against England. With periods of set-piece control, Humphreys, who is in good nick, can dictate stretches of the game.

There's also an emotional element to this game, too, as captain Paddy Johns earns his 50th cap. Aside from that, big performances are anticipated from the three Ws - Wood, Wallace and Ward.

Andy Ward had better play well, not just for himself but also for Gatland. Aside from the doubts about Trevor Brennan's suitability as a replacement, a suspicion lurks amongst the many observers that Gatland should have reverted to the back row which performed well against France (with Dion O'Cuinneagain at openside flanker). A suspicion also lurks that Ward is still carrying a knee injury and has just taken too much punishment this season.

Gatland is his own man and amid the panic stations after the French game, he was proven correct in sticking to his guns over Humphreys as place-kicker and out-half. But that was less of a gamble. Retaining faith in Ward, who has failed to deliver one of his trademark performances in this championship, is his biggest gamble yet.

It would be no surprise if it came off and Ward produces one of his Action Man displays. Nor would it be a surprise if Ireland won, bearing in mind the real risk of complacency creeping into the Scottish camp - they are strikingly relaxed.

Most likely, it will be another of those fluctuating Scottish-Irish affairs, with the lead exchanging hands and Scotland getting a severe and perhaps unexpected jolt. There may not be more than a score in it, with Ireland just sneaking it this time.