Historic victory changes the permutations

ON RUGBY:Saturday's win over the Tri-Nations champions has had the kind of seismic effect Argentina's win over France had in the World Cup opener four years ago

“You guys played so well.”

“Well done you guys.”

“You certainly did a number on those Aussies, Quade Cooper and their scrum.”

Even in quiet little Taupo, any recognition of an Irish accent seems to produce nothing but positive vibes. It must be nice for the players too.

Ireland are also the talk of the New Zealand media. Saturday’s win over the Tri-Nations champions has had the kind of seismic effect Argentina’s win over France had in the World Cup opener four years ago. Similarly, and just as suddenly, all preconceived notions of how the knock-out stages might pan out have been shredded.

Now, albeit on the dangerous presumption in this captivating World Cup that the pool stages don’t throw up any more surprises (such as France derailing the All Blacks for the third time in a World Cup at Eden Park next Saturday, or any of Scotland, Samoa or Italy beating England, South Africa or Ireland) then the three Tri-Nations superpowers will be pitched into one half of the draw, possibly with Argentina, while Ireland, Wales, England and France face off in a mini Four Nations from the Northern Hemisphere for a place in the final.

Oh well, it can’t be an all-European final then. Pity.

Privately, tournament organisers (along with travel agents, hotel operators, banks, bars, restaurants and retailers) are not bemoaning this sudden change in perceived wisdom, for the possibility of European participation all the way through to the final ensures plenty of euros and pounds remaining in circulation until October 23rd.

Furthermore, even the quick realisation that the All Blacks’ reward for winning Pool A – which they are compelled to do by beating France next Saturday – will be to face, perhaps, Argentina, and then the winners of a putative Australia-South Africa quarter-final, did not seem to unduly concern them.

Better to play those dastardly convicts from across the pond in the semi-final than the final, went the rationale. Furthermore, Ireland did the All Blacks the additional favour of ensuring Australia still haven’t won at Eden Park since 1985, and will now have to win successive games at their “graveyard” to lift the William Webb Ellis Trophy for a third time. Not to mention the damage Ireland have done to the much-hyped Wallabies scrum and the New Zealand-born Public Enemy Number One, ie Cooper.

The French, Welsh and English won’t have been discommoded by Ireland’s win either. One could well imagine Warren Gatland and co being given additional incentive to beat Samoa on Sunday by the prospect of playing Ireland in the quarters and either England or France in the semi-finals.

Les Bleus were intent on going for it against the All Blacks on Saturday regardless, but looking at the “consolation” prize of finishing runners-up in Pool A, they may feel they can now swing from the hip against the hosts. Likewise, Martin Johnson and co can now see a path to a third successive final without meeting a Tri-Nations team.

In the modern era, it’s always tempting to declare anything out of the ordinary as the “best” or “worst” ever, but Paul McNaughton – who played in the 2-0 series win in Australia, over the then Bledisloe Cup champions – was probably on the money when placing Saturday’s win as the best Irish performance ever at a World Cup, and on a par with the Grand Slam. Overall, that was probably even a bigger achievement.

But as a one-off? Even leaving aside Ireland’s failure to win a match against a Southern Hemisphere superpower in the south for 32 years, let’s just put it in the context of the World Cup. In the six previous World Cups, teams from the Tri-Nations have met teams from the current Six Nations on 43 occasions, with the Europeans managing just eight wins to 35 defeats in those games.

Furthermore, of the five wins by the Six Nations teams in the Southern Hemisphere, two (without wishing to denigrate them) were in third-place play-offs. The others were France’s epic semi-final win over Australia in the inaugural tournament in Sydney (Serge Blanco’s dramatic last-ditch try in the corner et al) along with England’s quarter-final win over Australia in the 1995 tournament in South Africa and their pool win over the dishevelled Boks in Perth in 2003 en route to winning the tournament.

Only the most curmudgeonly and mean-spirited could deny this was a pretty big win, and not another bloody moral one. Perhaps it will mean fewer reruns of Gordon Hamilton’s try against Australia at Lansdowne Road in 1991 (no disrespect to Gordon) or for that matter, Michael Lynagh squeezing over in the corner as a hush fell over the old ground.

More pertinent, from an Irish perspective, is what Saturday’s win did for themselves. Unless Ireland pick up a bonus-point win over Russia, and Italy fail to do so against the USA and Russia, it’s highly probable Ireland will still need to beat the Azzurri in the enclosed Otago Stadium in the very last pool game on Sunday, October 2nd.

Furthermore, presuming Australia obtain bonus-point wins over the USA and Russia, then Ireland will also still have to beat Italy to ensure the very real prize of top place. The newly-built, enclosed Otago Stadium in Dunedin has replaced the old House of Pain (hence it’s clever moniker, the Greenhouse of Pain) and curiously, perhaps because of its “drafts” at either end, it’s been especially painful for the place-kickers. Thus far, they have landed 13 out of 31, or 42 per cent, with Jonny Wilkinson even having difficulties.

It has all the makings of an edgy day, with the Italians (who missed out by a kick on an historic quarter-final four years ago) giving their absolute all. (A small thing, but have a team sung their national anthem more lustily so far?)

Nonetheless, it also has, at face value, the makings of another vintage Declan Kidney-masterminded campaign, reminiscent of the two Heineken Cups with Munster and the Grand Slam, not to mention all his other achievements.

The two-year extensions for himself, and the highly-prized Les Kiss and Gert Smal, don’t look like such silly ideas now, do they?