All-Ireland football final: Dublin have the materials and motivation to make a last stand

All-Ireland SFC final

Kerry v Dublin, Croke Park, 3.30

Referee: David Gough (Meath)

It is hard to think of an All-Ireland contest in the past 20 years with such compelling credentials. Three times in that period All-Ireland champions have defended their title against a team that has also won the title within the previous three years.

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Sunday will be the latest and in each case the champions have been Kerry and on each occasion they have lost. It’s not a formula, however, because Dublin are a long way down the road since a third of the team won the first of the six-in-a-row All-Irelands.

A year ago, Kerry didn’t look like obvious back-to-back winners and at times this season they have looked even less likely. But here they are, one match away from retention – something that pre-Dublin was actually quite difficult.

Dublin finished the year with regrets and alibis. They had lost to Kerry by just a point and had been missing their top forward Con O’Callaghan. Twelve months on, not alone is Con back but also Jack McCaffrey, Paul Mannion and Stephen Cluxton.

After Jim Gavin stepped away with the five-in-a-row intact, Cluxton was still there to anchor a sixth All-Ireland under new management. His departure, vague and uncertain as it was, appeared to undermine the whole project. It had to happen at some point but the impact was felt.

Even more than his experience in goal, with nothing getting past him since he came back, and the precision of his kick-outs, his influence and demanding standards are critical to a team that has had to improve on last year.

Dessie Farrell is probably aware that he’s not playing the Kerry of 2022 this weekend and that the All-Ireland will have developed the champions in terms of confidence and assurance.

The late extinguishing of the fires against Derry was indication of this, although assisted by their opponents’ panicking and going long with their last four kick-outs and getting picked off.

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Much focus has been on Kerry captain David Clifford – and for obvious reasons. On course, to be the Championship’s top scorer, he has consistently delivered for them and justified the direction of so much ball in to him. Were anything to befall him, like in the Tyrone semi-final two years ago when he was injured for extra time, bookies could start paying out on Dublin.

It’s a huge burden to carry into matches for a young player, who will have Michael Fitzsimons as a constant companion and for all that Clifford finds a way past defenders and has done in the past with then Cuala full back, he always has to work for the scores.

Given that fouling isn’t an obvious option given the form of Seán O’Shea, will Dublin detail extra cover or just concentrate on closing down the other forwards and trusting in the damage limitation?

The oldest-school solution is to stop serviceable ball getting in to the Kerry captain, which is a stern task given his facility to win possession and marks but one that will be uppermost in Dublin’s plans.

A lot will depend on centrefield. Brian Fenton played his best football in the second half of the semi-final since the Gavin era. A reliable metric from those years is that possession counts for key players such as Fenton and Ciaran Kilkenny were closely linked to outcomes: the higher the better.

Diarmuid O’Connor and Jack Barry have had good displays this year but Brendan Rogers bossed them in the semi-final and Fenton has a ferociously driven albeit 33-year-old captain, James McCarthy – around whom the All-Ireland crusade has been built – as support.

There is much speculation about the highly decorated Kilkenny, relegated to impact sub in recent matches, and it is likely that he will start on this occasion, robbing the bench of some impact but maybe setting an unanswerable agenda from the start by pressurising Kerry sweeper Tadhg Morley.

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Cormac Costello had his best match for Dublin in the semi-final and Kerry’s close attentions may create opportunities elsewhere, with O’Callaghan and the reborn Paul Mannion both big-game players.

Assuming Niall Scully swaps to the bench, Dublin still have three All Stars, also Dean Rock and Jack McCaffrey, to bring on, plus Sean Bugler who had been having his best run of form until injury derailed him in recent matches. It’s still more option-rich than Kerry’s reserve, especially with Tony Brosnan out.

Kerry bring athleticism, strength and vigour. Their destruction of Tyrone was impressive, even allowing for their opponents’ effective acquiescence. In that form, might this be the day that Dublin as a collective simply age together, as has been seen with other empires?

There’s no doubt they have the material but at this stage of their life cycle have Dublin the motivation? It’s hard to look at what’s at stake and say they don’t.