Dublin and Kerry set to deliver the expected All-Ireland final

Saturday

All-Ireland SFC semi-final: Dublin v Monaghan, Croke Park, 5.30 [Live, RTÉ2 and BBC Two NI]

It’s over 100 years since the counties met in the last four but, because of recent quarter-finals, the fixture doesn’t feel that exotic, which is probably a tribute to how much a part of the late-championship furniture Monaghan have become in the qualifier era.

That they are in a challenging position is reflected in the records circulated by Croke Park that sees the Ulster county’s previous 10 All-Ireland semi-finals taking them all the way back to 1922 whereas Dublin’s stretch no farther than 2014.

On the plus side for Monaghan, the semi-finals are the place to get Dublin. In the past 17 years, the Dubs have won eight All-Irelands but fallen seven times at the penultimate hurdle.

Stack up the argument beyond that and it gets tricky. There has been respectful reference to Monaghan’s good league record against this weekend’s opponents but so far this season Dublin have been building for a major crack at one more All-Ireland.

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The quarter-final destruction of Mayo was unexpected and required the Leinster champions’ best display in four years.

The pallid semi-final performances of last year (first half) and 2021 (second half) might offer a foothold for Monaghan but in recent matches Dublin have defended well – the venerable Cluxton conceding no goal since his return – and looked sharper and more menacing than for a long time.

Monaghan have been brilliantly unflappable in getting this far. Conor McManus has been Herculean off the bench but fellow veteran Karl O’Connell and Conor McCarthy have been bringing the fight from the half backs while Gary Mohan’s work-rate against Armagh was astonishing.

They calmly cut out danger at the back but despite that general demeanour, Armagh got in behind them the last day but didn’t make the chances count.

Dublin have the weapons for that if such opportunities present. Con O’Callaghan was quiet against Mayo but has racked up 2-19 from play, five behind the reborn Colm Basquel, who is the championship’s top scorer from play with 5-15.

The bench has benefited from holding back Jack McCaffrey and Ciarán Kilkenny but maybe that won’t continue.

If Monaghan could clap on the manacles for the first quarter, maybe the match would follow a favourable pattern for them but the disparity between the scoring records of the teams is too stark to suggest a surprise is on the cards.

Verdict: Dublin

Tailteann Cup SFC final: Down v Meath, Croke Park, 3.0 [Live, RTÉ2]

There is an air of distressed gentry about the 1991 All-Ireland finalists convening for the Tailteann but the new championship does offer a chance at rehabilitation and both look to be treating it accordingly.

Meath are fairly distant outsiders, which is slightly surprising given that they won the group match between the sides last month.

Since then though, Down have powered on and look to be evolving into the well-drilled collective that Conor Laverty probably envisaged when taking over.

His assistant Mickey Donnelly said during the week that he expected this to be different because Parnell Park’s narrower confines he felt suited Meath a bit better on the day whereas Down’s appetite for wide-open spaces of Croke Park was demonstrated in the eight-goal annihilation of Laois.

They also shot nearly 20 wides in the group match, which had also improved by the semi-final.

If Meath could distil the third-quarter display against Antrim and unleash the forward talents of Matthew Costello and Jordan Morris, Colm O’Rourke would be a happy manager but the team’s tendency to flit in and out of matches asserted itself in the semi-final and they had to pedal fast to stay in front having looked to have put the game to bed.

There is no doubt both teams have improved as a result of the additional matches. Meath have worked on strengthening their defence and captain Donal Keogan is a quality back. O’Rourke brings in Ronan Jones at centrefield and Daithi McGowan.

But the challenge is likely to be the pace and scoring ability of Down. They won’t find it as easy as the semi-final and in the group Meath tied them up very successfully but the likes of Liam Kerr, Pat Havern and Odhran Murdock look a different proposition in Croke Park.

Verdict: Down

Sunday

All-Ireland SFC semi-final: Derry v Kerry, Croke Park, 4.0 [Live, RTÉ2 and BBC Two NI]

Derry may well resent how they have been assigned the same status as Monaghan in terms of holding up what the public is expecting to be a 15th All-Ireland final between Kerry and Dublin.

But while the two big beasts were destroying the teams that beat them in the semi-finals two years ago, Derry were looking a bit underwhelming in dispatching Cork.

Still, as back-to-back Ulster champions Derry deserve respect even if there weren’t clear signs in the quarter-final that they have adapted an improved game plan for Croke Park.

They are unlikely to find the champions as revved up for this as they were for Tyrone a fortnight ago when the precision and power of their defensive hits and tackles were outstanding.

It was all achieved despite David Clifford having an off day of sorts but his involvement was still notable even if his normally unerring radar blinked when it came to scoring.

The other forwards impacted regardless – Seán O’Shea resurgent – and will be expected to do enough to justify favouritism here.

At the other end, the same argument could be made about Shane McGuigan who had a quiet day against Cork apart from frees and even then, missed a penalty at the end. It was a disappointing day for a player so prominent in All Star conversations and he will have a great opportunity to turn it around.

Derry’s defensive structure is solid and they won’t disintegrate the way Tyrone did. Chrissy McKaigue brings experience and Gareth McKinless was very effective in the quarter-final.

They will look for a platform from Conor Glass and Brendan Rogers at centrefield but there were worrying indications – from a Derry point of view – that Diarmuid O’Connor is finding his feet in the middle and so there may be more of a contest.

There is also some concern in Derry that the full-back line can be got at under early, dropping ball – as the Division Two final against Dublin indicated, albeit in the absence of McKaigue.

For all that the Ulster champions will be organised and combative and for all their pace in transition, there is a question over their scoring capacity in Croke Park where they have managed 1-12, 0-11 and 1-6 in their three most recent matches against Cork, Dublin and Galway.

Verdict: Kerry