Sam skylight or Tailteann trapdoor: who is heading where as the league heats up

There are three rounds of Allianz Football League matches left and issues yet to be resolved, but the overall shape is emerging. The impact of this season’s competition on the coming championship will be unprecedented and not just in the matter of who qualifies for Tier One and Tier Two.

There will be the league finals scheduled to be played a week before the provincial championships start. In Division One, Mayo and Roscommon are level at the top of the table. If things stay that way, the counties would have to play in successive weeks, first in a league final and then a Connacht quarter-final.

The suggestion that the championship match might double up as a league final — as happened with the hurling league during Covid when Clare’s and Limerick’s Munster quarter-final in Thurles also decided the league winners — isn’t without its attractions but the Central Competitions Control Committee (CCCC) is understandably reluctant to start speculating on solutions for a problem that may not arise.

Finishing positions

The CCCC might also feel understandably peeved given that they foresaw this very problem last year and recommended that there be no divisional finals with the county finishing top of the table taking the title. The Central Council overruled the idea and we are where we are.

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The more fraught problems with finishing positions in the league are to be found at the bottom of Division Two — the likely cut-off point for who contests the Sam Maguire and who winds up in the Tailteann Cup.

It is incredibly congested with three matches to go. Limerick have no points at the foot of the table but their final three fixtures are against the teams directly above them – Clare, Kildare and Meath.

Clare have been accursed, losing out in injury time to both Kildare and Dublin. Had those points been secured, Colm Collins’s team would be looking at promotion — instead of relegation with historically punitive consequences.

The county has been a consistent survivor though and has, with six years, the longest continuous presence in the division of anyone there.

There has been a sharp focus on Kildare, who despite a creditable season in Division One and slightly unfortunate relegation last year have not built on a competitive first weekend, losing narrowly in Croke Park.

Still to come for Glenn Ryan’s team are Limerick and Louth, as well as Leinster rivals Meath, and they will expect to get points from that remaining programme.

The jockeying for position has added urgency because of the uncertain nature of the final line-up for the Sam Maguire. Although the easy version of qualification is that it applies to everyone in the top two divisions, the addition of provincial finalists creates ambiguity. Any counties from Division Three or Four, that reach a provincial final will leapfrog into the field, meaning that a corresponding number of teams, starting with sixth place in Division Two, will have to drop out of Tier One.

Swept away

Last year, the CCCC announced an “amnesty” for any Division Two teams caught in this way, as they were prepared to organise any necessary playoffs to cope with more than 16 teams in the Sam Maguire. Almost inevitably, it never arose, as all eight provincial finalists were ranked in the top 16 and there were no Tailteann Cup winners to accommodate because the competition wasn’t introduced until last year.

How likely is it to happen this year that unknown numbers of Division Two counties will find themselves swept away in this manner? Not terribly, is the answer.

It’s not that Division Three or Four counties never reach provincial finals because they do and on occasion even win the title. Cavan and Tipperary were Division Three counties three years ago in the winter championship of 2020. Monaghan won Ulster from Division Three in 2013 and Roscommon in 2010 had just been promoted from Division Four.

The more relevant point is how these counties reached the provincial final. Hardly any of them had to beat a team from a higher division. The only county to have achieved consistent success in this regard is Sligo, who in 2010, 2012 and 2015 beat counties from a higher division to reach the Connacht final.

Given that trend, what is the outlook for this year’s championship?

For a county from the bottom half of the league to reach the Leinster final, they would have to get past last year’s finalists Dublin and Kildare on one side of the draw, or Meath, Westmeath or Louth (all three of whom are seeded for Sam Maguire) on the other.

In Ulster, the challenge is even more daunting. On one side of the draw are three Division One sides, Armagh, Tyrone and Monaghan and on the other, current champions Derry and last year’s finalists Donegal — between them blocking the top three in Division Three, Cavan Fermanagh and Down.

Connacht has already produced the scenario with its lowest-ranked counties all on one side and whereas in Munster, the prospect looks more tangible with Division Two sides Cork, Clare and Limerick on one side and both Limerick and Clare in relegation places, the fact is that Cork haven’t lost in championship to Clare or Limerick in 20 years.

In short, avoiding relegation from Division Two may well be enough for safety. For some, however, it could still be an anxious wait.

Sam Maguire*

Eight provincial finalists (according to bookmakers’ odds): Galway, Sligo, Dublin, Meath, Kerry, Cork, Derry and Armagh. These will be top seeds.

Next eight by league position (per February 27th standings): Mayo, Roscommon, Monaghan, Donegal, Tyrone, Louth, Kildare and Westmeath (Tailteann Cup holders).

Tailteann Cup

Remaining counties by league position: Clare, Limerick, Cavan Fermanagh, Down, Offaly, Antrim, Tipperary, Longford, Leitrim, Laois, Wexford, Wicklow, Carlow, London, Waterford and New York (to enter at preliminary quarter-final stage).

* Should a further county from Divisions Three or Four (at present Sligo — or Leitrim, London or New York are guaranteed by the Connacht draw) reach their provincial final, Kildare would on current standings be next in line for regrading to the Tailteann Cup as sixth in Division Two.

AFL Division Two

The cut for the Tailteann will be made at the bottom of this division. Already the places in Sam Maguire for lower-division teams have been taken by Westmeath from Division Three as winners of last year’s Tailteann Cup and Sligo, Leitrim, London or New York from the same side of the Connacht draw.

At the moment Limerick on zero points and Clare on two are in the relegation places. Kildare are next, also with two but in sixth position thanks to the head-to-head with Clare. These are the remaining fixtures:

Weekend March 4th/5th — Derry v Dublin, Clare v Cork, Louth v Kildare, Limerick v Meath

Weekend March 18th/19th — Meath v Dublin, Derry v Clare, Louth v Cork, Limerick v Kildare

Sunday March 26th — Cork v Derry, Kildare v Meath, Dublin v Louth, Clare v Limerick