Jim McGuinness: Wounded Dublin have the edge but can old guard contain Kerry’s forwards?

This is the game the football public has been waiting on all summer. It felt inevitable that Kerry and Dublin would reach Sunday’s collision point.

Dublin have undergone a distinct and necessary change of style, reverting to a more expansive kicking game with third man runners, a varied approach and a goal-hungry orientation with Dean Rock, Con O’Callaghan and a rotating yet quality third forward forming the point of their attack.

The terms of engagement will be dictated by Jack O’Connor and Kerry trying to predict what Dublin are going to do. For instance, in the Ulster final, Donegal knew how Derry would set up. They decided to mirror that — and hence we got the game we did. I feel Kerry can prepare for Dublin with a similar confidence. I think we know how Dublin will approach this game. So we could again see a mirroring of systems. And unlike the Ulster final, that could lead to a very expansive and exciting game of football.

[ Darragh Ó Sé: Kerry have to stop the rot - another Dublin defeat would be a catastrophe ]

I also think it could be to Kerry’s benefit. Furthermore, I think it is their best chance of winning the game.

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Both teams, strange to say, have considerable psychological baggage coming in here. Go back to this stage last year. Dublin’s ticket was up, and they flamed out against Mayo. Kerry came in with huge expectations which fell apart in terms of tactics and conditioning and pure fatigue against Tyrone. So, who can most fully embrace the concept of winning here?

That becomes a key question based on what happened last summer and on the fact that both counties share sky-high aspirations. Both Dublin and Kerry hope and expect to win this championship. But one of them will not.

Another fascination is the pressure on the Dublin old guard — James McCarthy, Michael Fitzsimons, Johnny Cooper. A player can grow old overnight. That day comes to every player. Everything looks and sounds the same until the moment when some guy is blowing by you. I don’t believe that the Dublin veterans have to worry about that day yet based on what we have seen. But the caveat is that there are no worrying signals — ever. It just arrives. The moment hits. You can’t keep up. And it is a tough place to be. Kerry’s flying forwards will offer the sternest stress test yet.

[ Ger Brennan: ‘If Con isn’t playing and David Clifford is, I don’t think we have enough to win’ ]

Then there is the spine of both attacks. Sean O’Shea and David Clifford for Kerry; Ciaran Kilkenny and Con O’Callaghan for Dublin. These duos will be central to the outcome. Clifford is in a realm of his own. But he is carrying a huge burden, too. Is it possible to envisage a scenario in which Con is a little bit off his best and still Dublin win? Yes, I think so. Could Kerry cope with an off day for Clifford or one in which he is held? I don’t think so. Put simply, they need their talisman to fire.

I think the most important battle is at midfield. If Dublin stay expansive and persist with a kicking strategy, then it comes down to a contest between Tom Lahiff and Brian Fenton against Kerry’s David Moran and Diarmuid O’Connor. I feel that Dublin hold the cards in that Fenton is an amazing weapon and is having another dominant season. If he hits full stride, then he sways that area in Dublin’s favour.

Then you move on to defensive attackers. Brian Ó Beaglaoich, Gavin White and Tom O’Sullivan have been eye catching in their scything attacking runs for Kerry. Dublin are more about the collective and working the ball at pace through the lines. Kerry are full of dynamic individual raids — and they will need lots of those on Sunday. The Dubs are the best tackling team in the country. Kerry are the second best tackling team in the country.

Dublin have the physicality and speed and mentality to challenge those Kerry runners from deep. But still, Kerry hold a slight edge in terms of what they could contribute to the scoreboard from this area.

Established attack is the next key battle ground. What if Kerry have to think their way through Dublin’s set defence? I think they could struggle here; young players in a hostile Croke Park facing a blizzard of decisions. Dublin, conversely, are well schooled in this regard. Patient, deliberate football is not alien to them in the final third. It is how they won their previous All-Irelands. They have the know-how from those campaigns.

In the bigger scheme of things, this match boils down to a contest of youth versus deep processes

So, if either team adapts a heavily defensive shape, I would suggest that Dublin hold the advantage in finding a way through that.

I am not convinced about the Kerry kick out. It has gone well this year. But it has gone well in other years too — until the pressure comes. I think they could revert to the long kick out — which often goes to the left wing. Dublin will relish that. They are the best in the country at pushing up on the opposition kick out. They absolutely close down the short outlet and set up a semicircle shape further out the park to deny the chance to thread a ball through any gap.

So, they are excellent at forcing teams long and winning that break. And if they can get traction here, then it can be a momentum builder for them.

And then the key question becomes: have Kerry found a way to reliably kick over that press and maybe expose Dublin for goal opportunities? My instinct is that Dublin holds the advantage and will overload to the left, inviting Kerry to kick to that area.

In the bigger scheme of things, this match boils down to a contest of youth versus deep processes. That is not strictly true because the average age of Dublin from midfield up is 27. But Kerry are young and they need to bring courage and a kind of exuberance to this game. In a way, they have to cut loose and just play and kind of ignore those very refined processes which Dublin possess.

Kerry’s defence has been widely praised. But I have this nagging question: how good are their defenders? Against some of the best individual players in the country? And against Dublin’s new style in the wide, open spaces of Croke Park? And: have they got the stomach to defend the D with their lives — like Tyrone did last year?

[ Jim McGuinness: Galway are back as an All-Ireland calibre football force ]

That willingness to get back time and again to defend that D with their lives and eliminate the points that Rock and Cormac Costello have been kicking for a decade? This game is a gut-check, and we won’t know the answer until Sunday evening. But the fact that I am asking myself this reflects the fact that the question is there. Kerry have yet to prove it. If they answer it for themselves, then they will have taken a massive step forward.

The last piece of the jigsaw is the prospect of a shoot-out. It goes back to the first part: the psychological guessing game. As said, I do not think Dublin will change their approach. And I think Kerry will respond to that challenge and they will come out to play. In that scenario, Kerry will be happier because those young stars of theirs can play on instinct and create energy and potentially thrive off that. This is the key for Kerry. They must find a way to find a dynamic where the game takes on a life of its own. One of those that goes way off script and leaves us on the edge on our seats.

The big card Dublin holds is hurt. Dublin had six years of sublimity. It was taken away from them — savagely. And they are responding to that this summer. There is a meanness about them. They have all that experience. Kerry are still learning how to get over the line. Dublin are hell-bent on returning to a place they know very well. And when it is all over, I think they will be there.