French unlikely to cause upset

Amid the private war between the three Southern Hemisphere giants, in normal circumstances France would be welcome party poopers in tomorrow's second semi-final at Twickenham. Alas, with the tabloids whipping up a fair old strom in the midst of the latest Anglo-French beef war, the French have been left pleading for support rather plaintively.

France are undoubtedly the one European side with the flair and unpredictability to upset the All Blacks. Whereas England could be accused of being "a bit Robocopish" by Fiji's Kiwi coach Brad Johnstone, no such slur could be applied to France.

A relevant guide to form is the countries' most recent meeting, the 54-7 win by the All Blacks in Wellington last June, when France only got seven courtesy of Ugo Mola's intercept try.

Admittedly, this game is on neutral territory, the brilliant Abdealtif Benazzi has returned to the French pack and Fabien Galthie and Christophe Lamaison have belatedly formed a more solid half-back pairing.

The French management team, bowing to public pressure, have thus seen some light, and they were an altogether more confident side against Argentina in Dublin last Sunday, especially in the opening quarter when les Bleus ran up a 17-0 lead.

However, bearing in mind their Wellington experience and that whole suicidal Southern Hemisphere tour, a confidence-inspiring start for the French seems even more imperative tomorrow.

Even so, France are unlikely to set about the All Blacks as they did Argentina last week. France will probably endeavour to get Benazzi rumbling as often as possible with a more physical approach, hence the recall of Fabien Pelous alongside Benazzi in the second row.

But even with a good start, enough cracks appeared against the free-spirited Pumas to suggest that France would struggle to protect a lead against the All Blacks. Besides, a more likely scenario is that the All Blacks will grasp the initiative, as they've done against England and Scotland, and effectively have the game won by half-time.

As with the other Southern Hemisphere giants, the All Blacks appear to be altogether more streetwise than the European teams, patiently content to play a territorial game, even if it involves endless aerial pingpong, secure in the knowledge that they'll invariably kick three-pointers.

And even when it comes to a surprise seven-pointer, they have inestimably more game-breakers in Andrew Mehrtens, Christian Cullen and their outside three than the French do.

The elevation of Byron Kelleher to the All Black starting 15, surprising in its timing if not its inevitability, also adds another string to their bow. Aside from a quicker service, Kelleher possesses a more potent sniping ability than the more experienced Justin Marshall, and his elevation has the added bonus of comforting his Otago half-back partner Tony Brown should Mehrtens not be declared fit. A late fitness test will be held on the Canterbury outhalf tomorrow and a final decision will be made at that stage.

Brown, though physical and a good runner, isn't a patch on Mehrtens. Mehrtens is the key man, potentially the man of the tournament, but whereas they mightn't get away with his absence in a final, they should do so tomorrow.

The All Blacks are by no means the complete article, their pack will not dominate a good side and they have their defensive culpabilities - Mehrtens's tackling maybe, and Lomu in all defensive areas - but the bookies probably have it right in making this a 20-point plus game, and putting France's chances at anything from 10/1 to 20/1.