France hope for logical conclusion

It is usually the case that only mathematicians or scientists can see the true nature and beauty of logic. But over the past 21 days European football fans have also been given an insight into the mathematician's happy mind. Euro 2000 has thrilled us with its logic.

France, the best team in the world, are in the final. Having fulfilled the minimum requirement of finishing second in the group stage, they have since overcome two of the most exuberant and hard-working teams on the Continent in Spain and Portugal. The quarter-final in Bruges last Sunday and the semi-final in Brussels on Wednesday were both difficult encounters. But France have more power and skill than either Spain or Portugal. And they deserved to win each match. Logic said so.

It also said that France, Portugal, Holland and Italy would beat Spain, Turkey, Yugoslavia and Romania in the four quarter-finals. Again the logic was right. All eight, in fact, had merited their presence in the quarters. The only surprise in Group A England and Germany had been so bad. Surprising but not illogical.

So, despite being regarded as the finest football tournament since the Mexico World Cup in 1970, Euro 2000 has won its admirers without resorting to the traditional cup script of triumphant underdog biting its betters. Logic 1, Romance 0.

On Thursday night in Amsterdam the pre-competition favourites fell. The Netherlands were meant to have benefited from being at home for every match, but as skied penalty followed scuffed penalty, the vast sea of dayglo orange in the Amsterdam Arena became disorientated. Where was the logic in missing two penalties in normal time against Italy's 10 men and then three more in the shoot-out?

It was the first time the logic of Euro 2000 had failed. Although Italy had started the tournament as 6 to 1 fourth favourites with English bookmakers, there was not the same degree of confidence at home. Their centre-forward Christian Vieri was injured and their first-choice goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon broke a bone in his hand the Saturday before the competition began.

Buffon's injury came in Oslo, where Italy were losing 1-0 to Norway. It was not an auspicious result, but after Turkey, Belgium and Sweden had been beaten and Italy were sitting with nine points at the top of Group B, the manager, Dino Zoff, said: "Do not judge Italian teams by how they play in friendlies. When the competitive matches start, so do we."

Zoff would give a hung dog a bad name so apparently docile is he. When Friday night went into extra-time, despite the achievement in foiling Holland, Zoff spent the two or three minutes slouching around with his hands in his pockets, barely speaking. It was staggering miserableness, but presumably Zoff was confident his side knew what they were doing. Zoff was not wrong.

Buffon's replacement, Francesco Toldo, was given a hug by Zoff at the very end, which, from Zoff, said a lot. So, too, was Alessandro Nesta. Alongside Fabio Cannavaro, Nesta gave a vintage display. Having handled Patrick Kluivert, Nesta now takes on Thierry Henry.

Whether Nicolas Anelka accompanies Henry is Roger Lemerre's most pressing question. France looked a much more dangerous team against Spain than against Portugal. Anelka was on the bench against Spain. Youri Djorkaeff and Christophe Dugarry offer Henry and Zinedine Zidane the options that could be necessary when confronted by Italy's tight-fisted defence.

Zoff received some critical queries from the international media on that subject yesterday. Italy have conceded two goals in five matches and have been less enthusiastic in their attacking than other countries, but Zoff can always cite the absence of Vieri as crucial. Nor does Zoff possess a Zidane.

Tomorrow the great Juventus player could find himself up against a club colleague, Gianluca Pessotto. Pessotto marked Zidane the last time the two met in the World Cup quarter-final in Paris and did such a good job that the game finished 0-0 after extra-time, with France progressing after penalties.

A similar scenario tomorrow would feel almost like a betrayal of Euro 2000's adventure, but with Gianluca Zambrotta suspended and Demetrio Albertini a doubt, Pessotto could emerge as one of Zoff's key men. But for all their admirable resilience Italy will not win further praise if their sole tactic is negative. To win their first title since Zoff was captain in the 1982 World Cup, Italy must attack. At least once.

Euro 2000 has been fortunate with early goals. The final needs another, preferably from France. Italy will then be involved in a creative football match. Logic says that is something they cannot win.