Defeat against Wales is unthinkable

Hindsight is a great thing, but really we could probably have put our mortgages on the four proud provinces of Ireland responding to the Murrayfield fiasco by resuming where they left off in the Celtic League and winning their opening European games. Indeed, the two were inextricably linked, for part of the reason the provinces all upped the ante was because the Scottish defeat constituted such a wake-up call.

The Irish players returned to the familiar embrace of their provinces and in many cases were, apparently, so down in the dumps they were barely able to talk about anything, much less the dreaded Murrayfield performance. It was always likely, however, that there would be comfort and succour to be had from returning to their provincial squads.

The provinces have replaced the clubs in this respect, and not only do they provide the club-like environment for the international squad members but the provinces had also been on a roll, and they have now put together a cumulative sequence of 16 successive wins.

The Irish management should, of course, be grateful for the restorative powers of the provinces on the psyche of their mostly home-based squad. By the time the Irish squad come together again next Sunday evening in advance of the Welsh game they should be in far better fettle than when they were last together en bloc.

Yet the flip side of all this is that the man in the street, to coin a phrase, will weigh up the provincial successes with Ireland's lamentable performance in Edinburgh and deduce that, well, they don't add up.

Over the course of the last week or so the thought occurred that the increased pool of professional players, the IRFU's largely successful attempts to lure the prodigal sons home and the three-tiered, club-province-international structures are significantly more beneficial to the provinces than the international team.

Even the onset of the AIB League, despite clashing with the Euro kick-off with its well attended opening weekend, shows there's plenty of life there yet - serves to underline the provincial set-ups, giving badly needed games to a host of contracted players.

None of this is to make excuses for the international management ticket, who clearly have to stand over the below-par performance in Murrayfield. As a result, there's little doubt that some IRFU officials can scarcely conceal their anger over what they see as the sole blemish on their otherwise perfectly manicured landscape, and so Warren Gatland is facing the second crisis of his coaching tenure.

Victory in Cardiff would do much to soothe the wounds and would propel Ireland to a final standing of second in the Championship, a best showing in 15 years. However, another defeat hardly bears thinking about given England and the All Blacks are next on the agenda. It's surely significant, too, that the IRFU general secretary Philip Browne has been stressing that it was Gatland himself - and not the Union - who requested that his current contract, which runs until the end of the 2002 Six Nations, be reviewed in November.

Probing for answers to the riddle of Ireland's (non) performance in Edinburgh, the word from within the squad was that the team resembled a boxer who leaves all his best combinations in training. It was as if the kick-off literally came as a shock as Scotland tore into them. The Irish players were almost taken aback to find that the opposition had turned up. That once the clean attacking ball off the tail of the line and the attacking second phase ruck ball didn't materialise as planned, they couldn't change tack.

The preparation therefore was more culpable than the personnel and the selection, although changes seem inevitable when Gatland, Eddie O'Sullivan and Brian O'Brien select the 22-man party for the game against Wales - most probably to be announced tomorrow.

Two changes will be forced upon them; Geordan Murphy's torn hamstring is sure to keep him out while yesterday's confirmation that Simon Easterby sustained concussion at the weekend also rules out the unlucky flanker.

There are options aplenty in replacing Murphy. Significantly or not O'Sullivan watched Ulster win in Treviso where Tyrone Howe reportedly played well, as indeed did James Topping. Anthony Horgan and Gordon D'Arcy would have to be runners as well. A personal preference would be for D'Arcy, given he is the closest in make-up to Murphy (defensive question marks and all) by being a winger cum full-back. He's also in form and is an investment for the future.

Of course Shane Horgan could revert to the right-wing role he has adapted to so credibly at national level. This in turn would enable the management to bring in Mike Mullins, arguably the most potent centre around aside from O'Driscoll and in the absence of the sorely missed Rob Henderson. Either way the renewed attention to basics such as defence seems sure to result in Kevin Maggs starting in Cardiff but one hopes that Shane Horgan is not jettisoned altogether.

As with Ronan O'Gara on Saturday, Horgan's performance against Toulouse was ballsy, and one commentator's observation that the 23-year-old's international career ended in Murrayfield does seem a tad premature.

Likewise, the Stringer-O'Gara axis should be reunited, on the basis that that they deserve some slack, are the most proven combination around and will in all probability be the World Cup halves.

Up front Eric Miller is the obvious replacement for Simon Easterby. John Hayes looks set to recover from the head injury which needed 22 stitches in Edinburgh and might even play for Munster in Harlequins this coming Saturday, so the front-row forwards are unlikely to change.

But what to do at second row? The management have been keeping their fingers crossed for a return to his vintage best from Jeremy Davidson without any apparent sign of it coming, while even Malcolm O'Kelly has looked short of his best.

Gary Longwell seems sure to start but the young pretenders aren't knocking the door down. Leo Cullen has been excellent and Paul O'Connell's learning curve can't be accentuated quick enough, but for the time being an embarrassing volte face regarding a certain legend down Munster way looks the best alternative.