Connacht look home and hosed

Celtic League: Connacht make their switch to Friday nights in the Sportsground with the first of three consecutive home games to round off their season. Ten points adrift of the Dragons - the lowest-placed Welsh side - realistically, their chances of qualifying for next season's Heineken European Cup via the play-off route is barely ajar but whatever chance Connacht have they need to win here.

Their coach, Michael Bradley, accepts that the play-off against the third-placed Italian side (for the best of the three sides not to qualify automatically from the Celtic League) is probably beyond his team now. "We're not in control of it so we're not going to worry about it," he reasons in typically phlegmatic fashion.

Nevertheless, a good performance in the first of a progressive rugby match-greyhound race night double-header would constitute an important marker given the advent of new business interests in an increased corporate section and an expanded audience given the likely increase in attendance.

As evidenced by the Gunners' 34-3 victory in the earlier meeting between the sides this season, Connacht will have their work cut out. "They're a very good side, and comfortably the top Scottish side," admits Bradley.

"They have some very good players and play a very good brand of rugby. They had a good win over Llanelli and are full of confidence."

Prior to that, Edinburgh really stretched Munster in the first half of their meeting in Thomond Park with their trademark touchline to touchline game, although as much through the middle as out wide, for having stretched the red line, rangy, ball-carrying forwards such as Simon Taylor, Alasdair Strokosch and Alastair Kellock made it look thin with their ability to make line breaks or offload in the tackle. Munster had to be at their very best to subdue them and counter Edinburgh's depth by closing down the space.

It is a remarkable tribute to Connacht, in reality, that they have managed to share three wins apiece with Edinburgh in six previous meetings and it perhaps helps their cause this evening that their opponents have already secured one of Scotland's two places for next season's European Cup.

Connacht also go into this game on the back of an impressive run of five consecutive wins at home in all competitions. While Bradley is reasonably pleased with the discipline of their defence, Connacht have been working on improving the creative play of their backline and are hoping to both generate and convert more try-scoring opportunities.

Partly to that end, Tom Tierney replaces the injured Chris Keane (groin) and David Slemen comes into the side at fullback with Paul Warwick moving to the bench, while Darren Yapp replaces Conor McPhillips on the wing having recovered from a hamstring strain. In the forwards, David Gannon replaces the injured Christian Short (ankle) and Matt Lacey comes into the side for Michael Swift with John Muldoon reverting to blindside flanker.

With one eye on next season, Irish under-21 lock David McGowan is among the replacements, meaning the Sligo native is in line to make his debut for the province. Realistically, Edinburgh should have the firepower and the finishing ability in the outside three to win, but in the circumstances, Connacht could conceivably turn such a theory on its head. At home, of late, more often than not that's what they've done.

CONNACHT: D Slemen; M Mostyn, J Hearty, G Williams, D Yapp; M McHugh, T Tierney; D McFarland, J Fogarty, S Knoop, D Gannon, A Farley (capt), J Muldoon, M Lacey, C Rigney. Replacements: J Merrigan, A Clarke, D McGowan, M Swift, C O'Loughlin, P Warwick, C McPhillips.

EDINBURGH: H Southwell; C Paterson (capt), M di Rollo, P Jorgensen, F Leonelli; P Godman, R Lawson; A Jacobsen, A Kelly, A Dickinson, A Kellock, D Duley, M Mustchin, A Strokosch, S Taylor. Replacements: K Traynor, D Hewett, F Pringle, A MacDonald, M Blair, A Monro, M Pyke.

Referee: Phil Fear (WRU).

Previous meetings: 2001-02 (CL) Connacht 21 Edinburgh Gunners 30. 03-04 (CL) Connacht 11 Edinburgh 3; (CCup s-f) Connacht 25 Edinburgh Gunners 26; (CL) Edinburgh Gunners 17 Connacht 32. 04-05 (CL) Connacht 24 Edinburgh Gunners 35; (CL) Edinburgh Gunners 13 Connacht 16. 05-06 (CL) Edinburgh Gunners 34 Connacht 3.

Leading try scorers: Connacht - Conor McPhillips 4; Edinburgh - Simon Webster 6, Rob Dewey 4.

Leading points scorers: Connacht - Paul Warwick 93, David Slemen 63. Edinburgh - Chris Paterson 115, Duncan Hodge 38.

Forecast: Connacht to win.

Connacht v Edinburgh Sportsground, 6.30