Case for freshening things up is strong

ON RUGBY:"History has also shown us that Kidney tends not to change a winning team. But that has usually been in the context of a Heineken Cup, where matches come first in blocks of two and then individually in the knock-out phase.

IRELAND DON’T tend to beat France and England in the same year, but history has shown us that when they do invariably one of our Celtic brethren succeed in dampening any thoughts of a clean sweep. The last time Ireland beat the supposed big two in the same campaign, in 2001, was a classic case in point when Scotland won the foot-and-mouth rearranged fixture in Murrayfield in the third week of September.

Speaking to Brian Ashton in the main stand before kick-off that day, the former Irish and English coach merely observed: “This is no time to be playing Test rugby.” It certainly wasn’t for Ireland, who lost 32-10 and we’ll never know whether Ireland would have gone on to beat both Wales and England with the additional baggage of having the ultimate Six Nations prize at stake.

On only seven occasions in the six decades since Ireland’s sole Grand Slam in 1948 have Ireland beaten England and France in the same year and on the last four occasions it was the Scots at Murrayfield who beat them, in 1973, 1975 and 1983 as well as 2001.

Before that, of course, neither Scotland nor Wales showed up in Dublin after Ireland had beaten England and France in 1972, whereas it was Wales who inflicted on Ireland their only defeat in 1969 and held them to a draw in Cardiff in 1951.

There are other, more relevant, precedents for underlining how Ireland could yet slip up. In 2003 Ireland were three from three at this juncture but only squeezed past a previously pointless Wales courtesy of a late drop goal by replacement Ronan O’Gara and a charge-down by Denis Hickie before they were beaten 42-6 by England a week later. Indeed, nothing highlights how difficult it is to win all five matches than England’s World Cup winners having four near misses at the Slam.

In 2005 Ireland were also three wins from three at this point after a sleeves-rolled-up, defensively exhaustive 19-13 win over England, before then losing at home to France and away to Wales. You’d hope that this Ireland, even if they come up short, don’t have the regret of not having had a real go. Perhaps Ireland contracted a nose bleed then too, and the warnings entailed in that win over England weren’t heeded.

You sense there’s a difference about this squad, however, not least in the experience garnered during previous near misses and the provinces’ experiences of these high-stakes games – especially Munster’s Heineken Cup wins. As Ireland assistant/backs’ coach Alan Gaffney pointed out yesterday, there’s also a welter of experience among the coaching staff, be it Declan Kidney’s, or Gert Smal’s with the Springboks’ World Cup winners or the couple of Super 14 finals entailed in Les Kiss’s CV, not forgetting Gaffney’s own vast knowledge. And no better man than Kidney to help keep the players’ minds focused on the next game.

You also sense there’s a new-found sense of enjoyment and togetherness among the squad, as evidenced in the way they support each other throughout games, whether it be for winning turnovers, scoring tries or whatever. The craic and slagging has never, apparently, been better. Maybe it’s now time to tap into that squad spirit more too.

This afternoon Kidney will unveil his selection to play the Scots. Heretofore he has been at pains to emphasise the importance of a squad system but that philosophy is being stretched to the limits by each passing win. History has also shown us that Kidney tends not to change a winning team. But that has usually been in the context of a Heineken Cup campaign, where matches come first in blocks of two and then individually in the knock-out phase.

This is an altogether more intense, five-games-in-seven-weeks competition, where Kidney and his coaches probably hadn’t bargained on emulating the team of 1983 which went through the entire Five Nations unchanged, if only because of injuries. Now, he is in a position where he must be tempted to leave well enough alone for the fourth game running.

However, were Kidney to pick the same starting XV this week, and were they then to come through Murrayfield with another win and unscathed, he would almost be duty-bound to pick the same XV for the Welsh game just seven days later. This in turn runs the risk of a slight element of fatigue.

With back-to-back games away from home and just seven days apart, there must also therefore be a temptation to freshen things up, to be true to the principle of developing a squad ethos, to keep everyone on their toes and to keep things as fresh as possible for Cardiff as well. It wouldn’t be a case of being discourteous to the Scots, for it’s not as if the back-up, especially from within the 22 who have been on duty to date, is lacking in Test-match experience or is unproven at this level. Rory Best, Denis Leamy, Peter Stringer, Gordon D’Arcy and Geordan Murphy have 254 caps between them, and if any players from the starting XV made way for them and were instead named on the bench, it’s not as if they wouldn’t be perfectly capable of having a major impact on events in Murrayfield. The case for starting D’Arcy is stronger this week than ever.

It’s funny to think that Wales coach Warren Gatland clearly had such pre-planning in mind for Saturday’s trip to Rome prior to hosting Ireland on Saturday week, before the Welsh defeat in Paris compelled him to go further and make 10 changes in personnel against Italy.

Do Wales have 10 players of true Test quality more than Ireland? Hardly. Might they be fresher on Saturday week? It’s not an exact science, and a win doesn’t necessarily mean a selection is 100 per cent correct any more than a loss makes it wrong. And Scotland – who have made more offloads and completed more passes than anyone, have gradually picked a better team and are rarely more dangerous than when at home with nothing to lose – are palpably more dangerous than Italy. You only have to think of Edinburgh-Leinster games to realise what a banana skin this one is.

But the argument for freshening things up is strong.

gthornley@irishtimes.com