Brilliance of the All Blacks will dazzle determined Irish

Legends in our midst and all that. The first All Blacks to tour these islands, in 1905, were called The Originals

Legends in our midst and all that. The first All Blacks to tour these islands, in 1905, were called The Originals. The 1924-25 British and Irish tourists were dubbed The Invincibles. These All Blacks of 1997 might henceforth be known as The Incomparables. Then again, why not all three?

To see them should be one to tell our grandchildren about. They have taken rugby to a new level, as much through their brilliant simplicity as their brilliance. They are also a joy to watch. Losing only one of 10 Tests last year (the fourth, dead, rubber of an historic series win in South Africa), they've won all eight this year at an average of better than 50 points to 20.

Though it's a crude barometer, anything better than that would probably constitute a good day out at the office for this fledgling Irish team if it reflects the 80 minutes. Jim Staples once remarked that the majority of rugby games are decided before the morning of the match. This All Blacks' team, perhaps spurred on by the 1995 World Cup that got away, have been carefully fine-tuned ever since by coach John Hart and have got even better.

By comparison, this is the first true outing for the Brian Ashton Ireland team, for last year he hopped on a moving bus. Given New Zealand are years further down the road, and Ireland has never beaten inferior All Blacks sides in 13 attempts, realistically, therefore, it should be no contest.

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Irish captain Keith Wood, in understandably straining to correct the unrealistic expectations of the past, puts Ireland's chances at 19 to 1. The bookies make it 14 to 1, or evens with a 40-point handicap.

If the All Blacks score early and cut loose, it could be a slaughter of the innocents. Yet there are some reasons for believing that Ireland could make this a pretty competitive match - even if it would need an awful lot to go right on the day.

In times past the Irish would taken succour from the expected inclement weather - normally a good leveller. The winds and rain forecast for today have even endangered the planned arrival of the match ball by helicopter courtesy of the Irish army parachute team. Alas, for the sceptics and wags amongst us, there are presumably alternative arrangements.

Then again, the All Blacks will play it the same anyway. With a disruptive wind behind them in Dunedin they blew Australia away with 36 unanswered points by half-time. In the slanting rain at Stradey Park last Saturday, they spilled the ball twice in winning 81-3. If either team's basic techniques are liable to break down it is Ireland's.

Nor will a weather-enforced, fractured, close-in, forward-orientated game greatly upset an All Black pack that looks to have a bigger back row and more big hitters in the tackle.

Nevertheless, the Irish pack looks competitive and the setpieces ought to go well enough - presuming Wood's delivery is more akin to his Lions' performances than his wayward throwing for Harlequins against Munster, Richmond and Toulouse this season. But he and the other Lions couldn't reproduce that form every week. Today should see it.

In the other corner, Sean Fitzpatrick's first injury-enforced absence in a decade might cause the All Blacks at least a little discomfiture. The All Blacks' tight five had been together for 26 tests.

Incredibly, in Ian Jones's 67 tests, Fitzpatrick has been throwing every time. But Norm Hewitt is an excellent player, so what the All Blacks will miss is Fitzpatrick's experience and mouthiness, even if referee Tony Spreadbury won't.

Improved Irish fitness levels and the onset of varying degrees of professionalism ought to negate one of the historic differences between the sides. Where Ireland often failed last year, though, and where they will be examined most severely today, is beyond the set pieces.

The presence of an English referee may or may not disrupt New Zealand's continuity game. However no visiting team has been analysed in such depth as this one, and Ireland have worked hard on their defence, promising some strategies that might cause the All Blacks problems.

With Glenn Osborne returning for the imposing Tana Umaga, and the slighter Andrew Mehrtens for Carlos Spencer, in the backs at any rate sheer explosive power in contact shouldn't be the men-against-boys factor it was for the Ireland Development squad which toured New Zealand last summer.

More than that it's the pace at which the All Blacks attack in waves which could leave Ireland clutching at shadows. The tackling will have to be uniformly on the line, and you'd expect it to be. But when regrouping defensively off ruck ball, Ireland will have to make instinctively correct decisions as well.

Once it goes beyond the first phase, positions are notional. These All Blacks can then play anywhere. For all their threat in broken play and counter attacks (cue Christian Cullen), perhaps the try which best encapsulated the play of this team was against South Africa at Eden Park.

South Africa had pilfered a 2111 lead and were confident, but turned over the ball on their own 22. The All Blacks set up quick ruck ball and South Africa fanned five men to the open side. Justin Marshall fed open side Josh Kronfeld, on to full-back Cullen, on to right-wing Jeff Wilson, on to left-wing Umaga and then to the lurking out-half Carlos Spencer. A score by the corner flag. The pass beat the man every time. Brilliant yet simple, done at pace.

True, few teams have really got up into the faces of these All Blacks, and you could see a fired-up Ireland doing it for stretches. But it's hard to see them doing it non-stop for 80 minutes. Compounding fears about the imbalanced Rob Henderson-Mark McCall midfield axis (both are naturally inside centres, though playing well), who you'd really fear for are the St Mary's wide three of Dennis Hickie, John McWeeney and full back Kevin Nowlan.

Necessity being the mother of invention, the latter two are probably being brought on quicker than Ashton would ideally have liked. Lest it be forgotten, Hickie is pretty inexperienced too - especially with the ball behind him and defending one-on-one against quality attackers. The three-week lull in European fare mightn't have helped, for playing against Skerries one week (no disrespect meant) and these All Blacks the next constitutes the chalk and cheese of world rugby.

However, Hickie too has truly world-class pace and finishing ability. Given the All Blacks like to defend from the outside in, there could be space for him if Ireland can transfer the ball quickly off the front foot. Though the All Blacks have a big-hitting brilliantly-organised defence, capable of absorbing sustained pressure, their attacking philosophy has meant they concede tries.

Ashton has worked his men hard on attacking angles off ruck ball when taking out the opposing open side, and thereafter on option-taking rather than pre-called moves. Conor McGuinness and Eric Elwood are in a rich vein of form. It's a big game for Elwood, but his tackling and defensive organisation are peerless amongst Irish out-halves and he's playing the most composed, incisive rugby of his career. They also bring some clever Connacht ploys to the equation.

Furthermore, rarely can an Irish team have fielded such a footballing back row, augmented as they are by the burgeoning Malcolm O'Kelly - a modernday, auxiliary back rower.

One could readily envisage Ireland scoring tries and turning in a good performance, which is as much as can be realistically expected. As for beating The Incomparables, that really would be one for the players to tell their grandchildren about.

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times