Beautiful retreat may suit Wales

The concept of a beautiful fortress is a beguiling one to Muscovites who have lived with invasion, actual or threatened, for centuries. A helpful guide on the way to the Wales team's hotel, a couple of hundred yards across the Moscow river from Red Square and the Kremlin, explained yesterday that red translated as beautiful in Russian before it meant revolutionary, and that kremlin means fortress, always has.

The information was relayed with relish but, standing in the high atrium of the hotel, Mark Hughes had the air of a man who knows that Wales tonight do not need to storm the Moscow fortress. A beautiful retreat would do.

Avoiding decisive defeat is Wales' primary task. To remain in contention for the second leg is the fundamental requirement. Then, next Wednesday, at a sold-out Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, Wales would have something to topple.

Achieving the first aim is not straightforward. Russia, either in present guise, or as the CIS or the Soviet Union, have only lost one competitive fixture in Moscow and that was to France when they were world champions.

In winning their four home games in the qualifying group, where they finished second to Switzerland, Russia scored 15 goals.

Combine that statistic with Wales' recent record of no wins in their last four qualification games - "We stumbled over the line," admitted Hughes - plus their historical inability to reach the major tournament finals, and Welsh hopes of nicking a victory tonight are slender. But then that is not the target.

Hughes was not talking about winning yesterday when he said: "Our focus is very much on the initial game, we have to make sure we are in the second leg. They are a big, strong side, physical. A new manager has come in and made a major impact, as has (Dmitri) Bulykin up front. He's good in the air, and after scoring goals he'll be confident. What matters is that we are still close enough. A draw would be a positive result."

So would a 2-0 loss, probably. Anything heavier and Wales would be struggling, but anything smaller and Hughes's team may just have the ascendancy.

For all their fortress Moscow form, all four visiting countries scored here in qualification, while away from home Russia lost 1-0 in Georgia and 3-1 in Albania.

Bearing in mind that away goals count, Hughes will be looking for his midfield to ensure that John Hartson is not isolated as was Nathan Blake in defeat in Belgrade in August.

Robbie Savage, from an upstairs window, was a spectator at yesterday's press conference. Savage has Achilles and hamstring injuries which even the Birmingham City midfielder's clear desire to play may not overcome.

With Mark Pembridge's experience missing already, Hughes needs Savage in a midfield five that is likely to include two West Bromwich players in Jason Koumas (six caps) and Andy Johnson (12 caps).

These figures, along with Cardiff City's Robert Earnshaw (eight caps), deserve as much attention as Ryan Giggs, though inevitably it was the Manchester United winger who dominated the agenda once again.

A Wales career that began 12 years ago has yielded eight goals from Giggs and there would be no better time for a ninth.

Hughes said: "Ryan's level of performance will always draw comment and, at times, criticism, but he's a major player for us."

Giggs may also have been one of those to whom Hughes referred when he said of these two games: "They could be career defining."

RUSSIA (Probable): Ovchinnikov; Sennikov, Ignashevich, Nizhegorodov or Smertin, Onopko; Alenichev, Gusev, Titov or Loskov, Mostovoi; Bulykin, Kerzhakov.

WALES (Probable): Jones; Delaney, Barnard, Melville, Speed; Koumas, Johnson, Savage, Earnshaw; Hartson, Giggs.

Referee: L Cortez Batista (Portugal).

Russia v Wales