Balance of power shifting

That this is the most competitive AIL first division so far was confirmed on Saturday. Not only did all five Limerick clubs lose, but for the first time ever three Dublin clubs beat Limerick rivals in the top flight.

The balance of power has shifted from Limerick and Munster, whose clubs heretofore have monopolised the league over the previous eight years, but to seemingly nowhere in particular as yet.

A cursory glance at this morning's AIL Division One table shows that (with just three full rounds and four back matches left) about seven teams are still realistically in contention for the top four playoff places.

Incredibly, the least well placed of these seven are four-in-a-row holders Shannon. Who would have thought it, but the bookies this morning will scratch their heads and not alone work out the long odds on Shannon retaining their title, but also their odds on reaching the last four.

Almost certainly the holders will have to win their concluding four games against Clontarf (away), Galwegians (home), Buccaneers (home) and Cork Con (away) to have any hope. Given that 14 points (or at an unlikely push, 12) will be the threshold for top four qualification, that could do it for them.

Thanks to Gordon D'Arcy's match-winning exploits at Garryowen, Lansdowne are now best placed of the leading contenders. Two victories from their remaining three games against Young Munster (away), Ballymena (home) and Buccaneers (away) ought to be sufficient to earn a top four place.

The same could almost be said of inform St Mary's, given their unmatched points differential, of a run-in which reads: Cork Constitution (away), Terenure (home) and Galwegians (away).

Garryowen are delicately placed, with a potentially critical trip to Ballymena in a fortnight prior to games against Blackrock (home) and Young Munster (away). By comparison, Buccaneers now look marginally better placed. Victories over Blackrock (away) and Young Munster (home) could leave them requiring only one of two prized scalps at Shannon or at home to Lansdowne to secure a top four place.

Cork Constitution, with a trip to Clontarf sandwiched amongst home games against St Mary's, Ballymena and Shannon will have a big say in the destination of others as well as themselves, while Ballymena are the hardest to call given a congested run-in against three of the teams above them, Garryowen (home), Lansdowne (away) and Cork Con (away), as well as the bottom three: Blackrock (away), Terenure (h) and Galwegians (away).

As things stand, the bottom two will go down, in which case not even George Hook's apparent messianic qualities can save Galwegians, leaving Clontarf, Blackrock and Terenure in a three-way fight to avoid the trap door.