A time for Ireland to be daring and brave

RUGBY:IT'S A shame the Palindrome won't be bursting at the seams on this homecoming for the boys in green, but aside from the desire to revive both the Lansdowne roar and the fortress feeling to the spiritual home of Irish rugby, this is still one of the more significant autumn friendlies of recent times.

In both corners, there’s the same hint of desperation for a win, and this first of four successive Tests will probably define both teams’ Novembers more than any of the three to follow.

Victory for Ireland would end a losing run of three Tests, and five games overall, and thus allow more of a free shot at the All Blacks in a fortnight. But defeat would leave them potentially facing a bleak mid-winter.

“It’s a hugely exciting prospect, being back home,” said Brian O’Driscoll yesterday, “and as much as we loved playing in Croke Park, this is where we belong.

“It might look vastly different from the last time we played here, but essentially this is the home of Irish rugby. It’s our job to create a bit of a fortress.”

Recalling how Ireland lost their opener at Croke Park, this is a must-win game, and it may partially help that eight of this starting line-up, including all bar Tommy Bowe of the back line, played for Leinster in their win over Munster here last month, along with four of the latter’s losing pack.

For the Springboks, only a first Grand Slam in exactly half a century would bring any kind of redemption in the eyes of a proud rugby nation who possess zero tolerance towards defeat.

Defeat, though, on top of five losses from six in the Tri-Nations, would make it four in a row against Ireland, a country they had only lost to once in the previous 16 clashes.

Both sides are, ironically, seeking to put into practice the lessons absorbed from defeats to the All Blacks and Australia, who have surpassed the World champions and everyone else in a fairly seismic Tri-Nations which almost made the game look like a new sport.

Much has been made of the Springboks’ injury toll and end-of-season mindset, to the degree these Boks are ripe for the plucking.

But Ireland’s starting XV has 510 caps to their names, whereas South Africa’s has 559, and this is still the core of the Boks pack which beat up the Lions.

Besides, any team wearing the Springbok jersey and led by Victor Matfield will hardly be of a mind to roll over and have their bellies tickled, and they have had six matches in the Tri-Nations since Ireland last played.

Recalling how Gert Smal’s insider knowledge helped Ireland dissect the Boks’ lineout at Croke Park a year ago, with the urban myth that the Ireland forwards had a crash course in Afrikaans, not only did Bakkies Botha miss that end-of-tour game, but Ireland had Paul O’Connell in their line-up and John Hayes, as diligent and effective a JCB as any locks have had.

Furthermore, if the Ireland scrum can swim against an all-Sharks frontrow, each of whom has proven himself at Test level, that would arguably be the most impressive day at the office to date for Cian Healy and Tony Buckley.

Declan Kidney has long said a team learns more from defeat than victory, and given he also feels Ireland will learn more from regular meetings with the Southern Hemisphere heavyweights, he’ll be desperately keen for Ireland to put the lessons of the summer to good effect.

Specifically, he stated yesterday, from the All Blacks game, to “never panic, no matter what is thrown at us, just stick to what you do.

“From Australia? That it is 80 minutes. We saw that from the video, that you have to take your opportunities. In some ways you have to depend on yourself. In soccer parlance, we have had a few goalscoring chances and we need to take those when they come along.”

It will be fascinating to see how Ireland go about this one. For reasons already outlined, they are unlikely to make many inroads into the Springboks lineout and thus makes kicking for territory unrewarding. The Boks also look particularly exposed at 13/14/15, though Ireland are unlikely to have too many opportunities to launch strike set-piece plays.

There is still a place for accurate kicking, but as the performances against Scotland, New Zealand and Australia appear to indicate, Ireland are now set on their way of playing a largely ball-in-hand game.

With Buckley adding to the mix, the degree to which they commit effectively to the collisions and at the breakdown will probably go most of the way toward deciding the outcome.

Recycling effectively, patiently playing through the phases and taking their opportunities, it would help no end if Ireland also showed distinct signs of adding counter-attacking, quick taps and quick throws to their repertoire.

Time was when South Africa’s boot-to-ball game was tailor-made for Rob Kearney, but all has changed, changed utterly, though as Alan Gaffney has been imploring the provinces as well as the Irish players to do, this also requires wingers et all to work back more than has been the case.

Despite pre-match rain, a wet ball and strong winds, this is the time to be daring and brave with the ball, and if Ireland want to go to the World Cup as realistic contenders, then they should be winning games like this. It might well be a one-score game, but they’re entitled to be marginal favourites.

Overall Head-to-Head:

Played – 19, Ireland Won – 4, South Africa Won – 14, Drawn – 1.

Biggest win/score: Ireland _ 32-15 at Lansdowne Road, 2006. South Africa _ 38-0 at Lansdowne Road (1912).

Last five meetings: 2004 — South Africa 31 Ireland 17; South Africa 26 Ireland 17; Ireland 17 South Africa 12; 2006 — Ireland 32 South Africa 15; 2009 – Ireland 15 South Africa 10.

Leading try scorers: Ireland – O’Driscoll 40, Bowe 15, O’Gara 14, Wallace 12. South Africa – Habana 38, de Villiers 19.

Leading points scorers: Ireland – O’Gara 963, O’Driscoll 215, Bowe 75, Sexton 68. South Africa – Steyn 269, Habana 190, Pienaar 107, de Villiers 95.

Betting (Paddy Power): 4/6 Ireland, 19/1 Draw, 6/5 South Africa. Handicap odds (South Africa +2pts) 10/11 Ireland, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 South Africa.

Forecast: Ireland to win.