Questions for Fianna Fáil go beyond those of leadership

The á parliamentary party gathers in Mullingar on Monday for a two-day “think-in” ahead of the start of the Dáil term on Wednesday, with the event likely to be dominated by the Government’s response to the cost-of-living crisis and the forthcoming budget.

Sessions to discuss the housing crisis, healthcare, farming, gambling and the budget are scheduled, but there will also be many private conversations on the margins among TDs and Senators about the state of the party, its uncertain prospects and the leadership of Taoiseach Micheál Martin.

The mood is certainly different to last year, when the think-in was billed as a showdown between Martin and his internal critics. But the anticipated rebellion failed to materialise and the showdown turned out to be a bit of damp squib, which had the effect of strengthening the leader’s position.

In fact, last year’s think-in was a clarifying event which revealed much about the state of the parliamentary party. It showed there are effectively three camps – the Martin loyalists, including the payroll vote of Ministers and ministers of State; the Martin opponents, many of whom would be quite happy to see him gone; and the decisive middle ground – the group who rowed in behind Martin last year but are likely to favour an orderly and managed leadership transition ahead of the next general election.

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That disposition of forces hasn’t really changed in the last year. Martin will end his term in the taoiseach’s office in December as party leader. What will be interesting to see in Mullingar is whether there is any consensus emerging about what happens then.

Grumbling backbenchers

There has been some grumbling among backbenchers about the lack of time in the Mullingar programme for precisely these sort of discussions. Those close to Martin point out that the parliamentary party is returning to its normal schedule of weekly meetings on Wednesday and also, more sharply, that the public has no interest in watching another episode of the Fianna Fáil soap opera.

Martin, his aides and allies will seek to focus the think-in on the pressing issues that concern voters right now: the cost of living and what their government is going to do to help them through it. A big budget giveaway, almost certainly the biggest non-pandemic budget in the history of the State, is just weeks away. Surely, they hope, the party can garner some political credit from that?

After a poor run in opinion polls, TDs will be braced by two different polls on Sunday which both showed the party gaining three points. But that won’t allay a deep unease about the party’s fortunes and prospects, and a sense of fatalism among some TDs that it faces a savaging from voters at the next election.

Others point out that, two years into Government, support for the party – according to most, though not all, polls – has not collapsed, despite the popular narrative. It can still contest with Fine Gael for the leadership of the centre. But even some of those TDs and Senators who are not in the irredeemably pessimistic camp privately confess to a deep uncertainty about the party’s future.

Fianna Fáil faces questions about position and definition, about its attitude to potential unification and about who it might coalesce with in the future: Sinn Féin or Fine Gael?

Can a catch-all party survive when it’s no longer a big party? Centre-left or centre-right? Who, and what, is it for? Part of all that is about the leadership. But the questions for Fianna Fáil go beyond just who leads it. And in their heart of hearts, they know it.