European Election

Being favourite in opinion polls makes Barry Andrews nervous

The Dublin MEP says he will have to fight to retain his seat despite being seen as the frontrunner

Barry Andrews in Blackrock, Co Dublin: 'I’m just anxious about opinion polls that tell you one thing, then things can go very differently.' Photograph: Nick Bradshaw

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Harry McGee Political Correspondent
Thu Jun 6 2024 - 09:00

When an Irish Times opinion poll on the European election was published showing that Barry Andrews was leading the pack in Dublin, a little bit of him died.

Exactly the same thing happened in 2019 to the Fianna Fáil candidate. Then, the poll put his support level at a dizzying 19 per cent, well ahead of the pack. And then when election day came, he had dropped to 14 per cent, finishing third in the first count and then being overtaken by Clare Daly on later counts.

He finished fourth in a constituency which was officially a three-seater. It left him in limbo. However, the redistribution of Britain’s seats after Brexit had given Dublin an extra seat, but it had not been officially sanctioned.

It meant Andrews was left on the substitutes bench for months before being allowed to take his seat in Brussels. And then Covid hit. It was all messy.

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“I’m just anxious about opinion polls that tell you one thing, then things can go very differently,” he says. “It’s only after two weeks of the campaign when people really start to engage. It’s not just about name recognition, people really start to think about these things.”

Andrews is a tall man with a laid-back manner that disguises some strong convictions. He comes from a South Dublin Fianna Fáil family that can trace its connections to the founding of the State. His father, David, a former minister for foreign affairs, nodded to that blue-blood background with his autobiography, Kingston Republican. Broadcaster Ryan Tubridy is also a first cousin (and there is a family resemblance).

On the canvass, Blathnaid O’Reilly is cooking sausages at the door of Hicks’ Butchers. “You are so like Ryan,” she says with a smile when Andrews says hello.

Barry Andrews on the campaign trail in Blackrock, Co Dublin. Photograph: Nick Bradshaw

Hicks’ Butchers means we’re in Dún Laoghaire. When you ask political parties to go canvassing with candidates, they adopt the stance of Kildare in an All-Ireland series game against Mayo several years ago: Newbridge or Nowhere. It’s always going to be home turf and for Andrews that is Blackrock and Dún Laoghaire.

The canvass starts on the main street of Blackrock on a sun-splashed morning, with Andrews and his team meeting and greeting people as they rush by. He tells people it is a “dangerous time” in European politics because there is a chance more right-wing candidates, who are Eurosceptic and “sit on the fringes”, will be elected to the parliament.

Migration is one of four main issues raised with Andrews, alongside housing, climate change (for younger people) and the cost of living.

“It’s coming up as an issue less than people think,” he says of migration. “There’s a sense among people that we should have seen some of this coming. It can divide politics and society. That’s really dangerous stuff.”

But it is being brought up here. We meet Aidan Fitzgerald outside his hair salon, which he has run for 43 years. Fitzgerald says the handling of the issue has been a mess and that he had heard on the radio about handfuls of people being sent back across the Border by bus.

Andrews agrees. “There is a balance between making sure you provide a safe pathway for people with genuine issues and also being strong in enforcing the legislation. That’s not happening at the moment and it’s eroding public trust and dividing politics,” he says.

Barry Andrews: 'To have any chance, I need to get votes from everybody, north, south, Fine Gael, Greens, the lot.' Photograph: Nick Bradshaw

Speaking afterwards, he says as an MEP, he voted for the Asylum and Migration Pact but as former head of the aid agency Goal, he was not comfortable with some of the elements that passed. “I campaigned for EU-wide search and rescue to be part of the pact. That was not the case. There are parts of the child detention part that I’m concerned about. I wonder if they will survive challenges under the European Convention of Human Rights.”

The bottom line is he will support it. “Politically, it is our best hope for an EU framework. Going it alone isn’t an option. Having 27 member states doing different things is pointless. It has taken us 10 years to get where we are today. And there’s absolutely no chance of anything remotely progressive in the next mandate, given the direction of travel politically.”

The canvass includes a question-and-answer session with students at Sion Hill in Blackrock. It’s fascinating. Andrews uses his former careers as a teacher, a barrister and head of an aid agency to make his presentation. He’s on point with his young audience.

He tells the students the cobalt inside their phones and computers may be the product of child labour in the Democratic Republic of Congo and also tells them that fast fashion has the potential to create about 10 per cent of global emissions.

The canvass ends with a walk around Dún Laoghaire with local election candidates Cllr Justin Moylan and Colette O’Sullivan. Some people believe that because Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty is based on the northside, the consummate southsider Andrews might attract votes from Fine Gael supporters south of the Liffey. He wonders if there is much substance to that.

“The reality is that Fianna Fáil is on 11 per cent in Dublin,” he replies. “To have any chance, I need to get votes from everybody, north, south, Fine Gael, Greens, the lot.”

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