Clear majority of voters intend to vote Yes in both referendums, poll shows

The referendums on recognising non-marital families and care in the home in the Constitution are on course to pass – though most voters say they know “hardly anything at all” about the proposed changes.

A clear majority of voters in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll currently say that they will vote Yes to both proposals, though with better-informed voters more likely to vote against the proposed changes the lead for the Yes side may shrink as polling day approaches.

Thursday’s poll shows that most voters have little idea about the changes. Just 8 per cent say they know “a lot” about the proposed changes to the Constitution, while a further 36 per cent say they know “a little” about them. But more than half of all voters, 53 per cent, say that they know “hardly anything at all” about the referendums.

At the outset of the campaign the Yes side has established a strong lead. In the referendum on changing the constitutional provisions relating to the definition of the family, over half of all voters (52 per cent) say they will vote in favour, with just 15 per cent against, while 27 per cent say they don’t know. A further 5 per cent say they will not vote.

The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll: the full results in charts

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On the “care” referendum, which proposes to recognise the value of care and remove the text which recognises women’s role in the home, the Yes lead is even larger – 59 per cent say they will vote in favour. Just 12 per cent say they will vote against the proposal and 23 per cent are undecided. Again 5 per cent say they will not vote.

[ Women in the home referendum: what exactly does the Government want to change, and why? ]

The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 1,200 adults at 120 sampling points across all constituencies between February 2nd and February 6th. Respondents were interviewed at their own homes. The accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.8 per cent.

The poll also contains findings about Irish voters’ attitudes to the conflict in Gaza. Although a majority of voters back Israel’s right to defend itself they believe that Israel has gone too far in its assault on Gaza. Voters are split on supporting South Africa’s case for genocide against Israel, and believe that Irish politicians should not boycott the White House on St Patrick’s Day.

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