Not all Ukrainian refugees may want to return home if war ends, briefing document says

The Government should not assume all Ukrainian refugees receiving temporary protection in Ireland will want to return home immediately after any cessation of the war, an internal briefing note has pointed out.

The document, prepared for Minister for Justice Helen McEntee last May, analysed the situation and potential repatriation of refugees in the context of the Balkan conflict in the 1990s.

By the end of August, there were almost 92,500 Ukrainians living in Ireland, with considerable pressure on the Department of Equality to secure suitable accommodation for those who continue to arrive.

The briefing document, published on Monday, noted there were 1.2 million recorded refugees from Bosnia and Herzegovina between 1992 and 1995. Between 1996 and 2005, 40 per cent had returned.

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“While the legal basis under which temporary protection is being offered was a result of the Balkan experience, we should not assume that all Ukrainians will wish to immediately return home if and when the conflict ends,” the document noted.

It addresses migration of all kinds, including asylum seekers requesting international protection, and particularly the growth in that area in very recent years.

Between 2008 and 2021, Ireland had processed just under 34,000 such applications, an average of about 2,420 per year. Last year, the number was 13,651, up from 4,780 in 2019. By the end of last April, according to the note, the number had already reached 3,628 for the year, an increase of 147 per cent on the same period in 2019.

The Department of Justice has also recommenced deportations, which had been paused during the Covid-19 pandemic, the Minister was briefed.

It “is working with [airline] carriers to implement measures aimed at reducing the number of persons arriving with false documents”, it said.

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In the first quarter of 2022, 814 people were refused leave to land at Dublin Airport. That number increased to 1,561 the following quarter but fell to 782 for the first three months of this year.

Efforts have also been stepped up to improve the efficiency of application processing by the International Protection Office (IPO). Various steps have been put in place since late last year to “ensure that most nationals from safe countries [such as Georgia, Albania and South Africa] will ... receive a first-instance decision in less than three months, which is a significant reduction from a norm of 17 to 24 months” before that.

IPO staff were also bolstered, with approved levels increasing from 206 to 299 between January and April last.

“From a medium-term perspective, the IPO requires over 400 staff in 2023 to continue growth in [application] processing,” the document noted.

The service is also being digitised, with expectations of a paperless system by the beginning of next year.

Separately, a scheme to regularise undocumented migrants and their dependents living in Ireland for at least three years closed last July. The department received 6,548 applications on behalf of 8,311 people.

Migrants from Brazil, China, Pakistan and the Philippines accounted for more than half of all applicants. As of mid-May, positive decisions were made in 83 per cent of processed applications.