Fine Gael losing support in mid-income bracket representing majority of working households

Satisfaction with the Government has declined in this latest Irish Times/Ipsos poll, but not to the benefit of Sinn Féin on this occasion.

Government satisfaction has dropped four points to 34 per cent, but the pain is not shared equally across the Government parties, with Fine Gael singled out for special treatment. The party has lost four points, dropping to 18 per cent for only the second time this millennium.

Support for Fianna Fáil is up three points, to 21 per cent, with the Greens unchanged on 4 per cent.

Having consistently registered support levels in the mid-thirties for over a year, Sinn Féin have taken a step back, down four points to 31 per cent. The winner among the opposition parties, this time, is the Social Democrats, moving up three points to 5 per cent, putting the party ahead of Labour on 4 per cent (unchanged).

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PBP-Solidarity are on 2 per cent and Aontú are on 1 per cent.

Interviewing for the poll took place on Monday and Tuesday of this week at 120 points across Ireland, covering every constituency. Interviewing points and addresses are randomly selected to ensure all eligible voters have an equal opportunity to participate in an Irish Times/Ipsos poll.

A Government satisfaction rating of 34 per cent does not reflect the remarkable progress Ireland has made over the past decade in becoming one of the richest countries in the world, with a quality of life that is highly rated. What is reflected, it seems, is a frustration with how our wealth is being distributed and how more recently inflation has impacted our quality of life.

For Fine Gael, there is little appreciation among middle Ireland for the role the party played in turning the economy around, if by middle we mean middle-income groups. Among C1s and C2s combined – the socio-economic classifications that most closely corresponds to middle-income and represent the majority of working households – Fine Gael attracts just 16 per cent of the vote, lagging behind both Sinn Féin (on 32 per cent) and Fianna Fáil (on 20 per cent).

A drop in support for Fine Gael is also noticeable among the over 65s, falling from 28 per cent in February to 18 per cent in this latest June poll. Support in Dublin is also lower, down from 24 per cent to 17 per cent.

Among older voters, Fine Gael’s loss has been Fianna Fáil’s gain, with support jumping from 30 per cent to 37 per cent among the over 65s. Gains are also registered for Fianna Fáil among the under 35s (up four points to 13 per cent), but not enough to rebalance Fianna Fáil’s heavily skewed age profile.

Older voters have also become a key demographic for Sinn Féin. Success in wooing voters in the 65+ age category has been a key pillar of Sinn Féin’s success in recent years.

Not so long ago, Sinn Féin could expect to poll in the single digits among this cohort. It is now reasonable to expect one in four voters aged 65+ to give Sinn Féin their first preference. In this latest poll, Sinn Féin (on 22 per cent) are ahead of Fine Gael (on 18 per cent) among the over 65s.

While Sinn Féin have dropped four points in today’s poll (down to 31 per cent), the party remains number one and dominates among younger (41 per cent among the under 35s) and working-class (38 per cent among the C2DEs) voters.

The race for the number four spot, and potential kingmaker in the next Government, has taken on a new dimension. Marginally ahead of the Greens and Labour, both on four per cent, are the Social Democrats on 5 per cent, up 3 points on our February poll.

Driving the Social Democrat vote are Dublin voters (on 9 per cent) and the under 35s (on 10 per cent).

The success of the Social Democrats has helped boost support for the Independents/Other category (which includes the Social Democrats, PBP-Solidarity and Aontú), up to 22 per cent and the highest level recorded since the 2016 general election.

A change of leadership appears to have had a noticeable impact on the appeal of the Social Democrats. For the three leaders of Government parties, however, satisfaction ratings have declined. Leo Varadkar is down six points to 37 per cent, Micheál Martin is down four points to 41 per cent and Eamon Ryan is down two points to 20 per cent. Satisfaction with Mary Lou McDonald is unchanged on 42 per cent.

Every poll is a snapshot in time and many of the headline moves in this poll are only borderline statistically significant. The poll findings remind us that voters are less entrenched in their party preferences than they were a generation ago. Fine Gael can no longer rely on older voters to ballast their vote, nor can Sinn Féin count on recent coverts to keep the faith. Like the old saying goes, the only constant in life, or politics, is change.

Damian Loscher is managing director of Ipsos